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Nuggets-Clippers Preview: X-factors, key matchups, series predictions and more

September 3, 2020

The Nuggets had exactly one night to bask in the glow of their historic come-from-behind series win over the Jazz.

“We play Thursday? We don’t get two days off?” Jamal Murray asked, responding to Scott Van Pelt’s question after Game 7 about the Nuggets’ second-round matchup against the Clippers. “Man. Well, that’s a bummer.”

The Clippers of course have been waiting patiently to see who their next opponent would be. Led by Kawhi Leonard’s 32.8 points per game in the series, the Clippers dispatched Luka Doncic and the Mavs in six games.

“The Clippers, they have terrific defenders, Kawhi, Paul George, Patrick Beverley,” Michael Malone said. “Last time we played them they got into us. Very physical team. So we’ll have our hands full with that matchup.”

That previous matchup Malone’s referencing isn’t the Nuggets-Clippers seeding game which took place inside the bubble on Aug. 12. Still burned into Malone’s brain is the meeting with the Clippers that took place back in February which pitted the West’s No. 2 and No. 3 seeds against one another. The Clippers rolled the Nuggets 132-103 at Staples Center.

The Clippers sent a message to the Nuggets that night. LA was physical with Denver and made every Nuggets possession a difficult one. That night Malone labeled Denver’s play “soft.”

“I think it’s definitely going to be physical. They’re a much bigger, physical team, but I also think we can match the physicality because we’re big and physical as well. I think this series is going to be completely different from the last,” Torrey Craig said. “I think it’s going to be more grind it out. Definitely going to be more physical, and we’re looking forward to it.”

Based on how the Clippers approached their first-round matchup against the Mavs, the Nuggets should expect a similar level of physicality that they saw in the regular season beginning Thursday in Game 1 (7:00 p.m. TNT). Marcus Morris was the Clippers’ top instigator versus Dallas. In Game 5, Morris stepped on Doncic’s sprained ankle which Doncic and the Mavs reportedly deemed intentional. Then in first quarter of Game 6, Morris was ejected for a flagrant 2 foul he committed on Doncic while the Mavs guard was driving to the basket.

The Nuggets should be ready for what’s coming.

Nuggets-Clippers has loads of top-end star power with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Leonard and George. Denver will likely have February’s memorable meeting in its minds ahead of Game 1 Thursday. LA might too.

Can the Nuggets ride their momentum from a thrilling seven-game series against the Jazz? Will the Clippers’ experience be too much for the Nuggets?

Let’s find out.

Series History

January 12: Nuggets 114 Clippers 104 (Jokic: 20 points, 15 rebounds, 6 assists | Murray: 19 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists | Harris: 15 points, 3 steals | Leonard: 30 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals | Williams: 26 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists | Harrell: 25 point, 8 rebounds)

*Paul George, Paul Millsap did not play

*Both team’s starters did not play in the fourth

Who will be the Nuggets’ X-factor?

Adam: Paul Millsap

It feels a bit strange to call “Dad” an x-factor but unlike in the first round series when Millsap was matched up against smaller, more stretchy opponents, defending the Clippers will require size and strength. The Nuggets need Millsap to be a plus defender against Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and the rest of the large wing scorers that the Clippers will roll out while also knocking down open shots to help space the court for Nikola Jokic.

Millsap looked washed in round one and was either an anchor on the team or a non-contributor by the end of the series. The matchup is more favorable this time around but Millsap will still have to prove that he’s got something left in the tank. Otherwise the Nuggets will be forced to play smaller and thinner against a physical group of 1-on-1 scorers.

Harrison: Jerami Grant

I called Jerami Grant the “unsung hero” of Denver’s first-round series where he averaged 11 points in 34 minutes per game and shot an impressive 41% from three-point range. Once Grant entered the starting lineup for Game 4, he also expended a lot of energy on defense matching up on Donovan Mitchell. He’ll have even more thrust up on him in this series and the Nuggets will need another big showing from Grant if they want to push the Clippers. His biggest contributions could come on the defensive end.

Grant is Denver’s best matchup on Kawhi Leonard and probably Paul George too. He had success guarding both Clippers forwards during the regular season. According to NBA.com tracking data, Grant held Leonard to 4-14 shooting and Paul George to 0-7 from the field this season. He’ll have his work cut out for him in this series.

Brendan: Michael Porter Jr.

Improved defensively throughout his first-ever playoff series. Seven games later, MPJ has a series win under his belt and assurance that his head coach will trust him down the stretch when he focuses on the right things. The Clippers are a better team than Utah, but there’s something to be said for the respective playstyles. The Clippers’ offense isn’t all that complicated, and won’t put the rookie through the mental wringer that Utah did with the high pick and roll. That’s not to say Kawhi Leonard won’t seek him out on switches and ruin his day, but that’s what playoff Kawhi does regardless of who defends him.

MPJ didn’t find much of a rhythm as a scorer, but those first series jitters are out of the way, and the reality is defenses aren’t too keen on leaving him alone. He’ll keep shooting, and sooner or later, he’ll enter that zone. Will enough shots fall to justify his presence on the court? Can he hold his ground defensively? He’ll have all the motivation he needs:

Michael Porter Jr. says he wasn’t surprised the Clippers passed on him twice in the draft. “Their doctor was the one who wrote the report on me. I think he wrote some stuff that he thought I would never play basketball again.”

“It’s gonna be fun to play against them, for sure.”

— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) September 2, 2020

What matchup must the Nuggets win?

Harrison: Jamal Murray vs. Patrick Beverley, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George

Murray figures to see a revolving door of Clipper defenders this series. Clippers starting point guard Patrick Beverley missed most of the first-round series with a calf strain but is questionable for Game 1. Leonard and George could spend time guarding Murray too. Of course, Murray’s coming off a huge first-round where he tallied 50 points in Games 4 and 6 and finished with 46 points in Game 5.

He struggled in Game 7 after hurting his thigh in the first half and the Clippers will surely try and be physical with Murray by throwing lots of taller and stronger defenders his way. Do the Nuggets have enough offensive firepower if Murray gets bottled up consistently, or is it going to be Game 7 all over again? He’ll need to have another big series for the Nuggets to advance.

Other matchups I’ll be watching: Can Gary Harris shut down Lou Williams a la Jordan Clarkson? Will the Nuggets’ bench be able to contain Montrezl Harrell who’s killed the Nuggets in the regular season over the years?

Brendan: The bench minutes

It’s hard to expect anything but elite play incoming from Nikola Jokić. Defensive struggles and mid-series blues notwithstanding, Jokić put up some impressive numbers against the 2x DPOY. Ivica Zubac, Montrezl Harrell, and the ghost of Joakim Noah won’t offer similar resistance. The Nuggets don’t match up well with the Clippers, but as long as Jokić is dominating, they have a chance. So what happens when Jokić and or Murray hit the bench? Will Gary Harris lock up Sweet Lou? Will the second unit find enough offense? If Michael Porter Jr. plays off the bench again, I feel even better about my pick for the X-factor. He can swing a game or two with a timely run.

Who will play more or who will play less than they did in the first round?

Adam: Gary Harris (more)

I took the easy answer with Harris but there is a point to be made. The Nuggets know Harris. He has been the starter for 5 seasons now and has as much chemistry with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic as anyone. That alone is worth something. He may or may not start in game one but he will share the court with the starters enough to hopefully help Denver’s two stars feel more comfortable being aggressive in their individual matchups. If he brings his stroke from behind the arc along with him in this series than Denver’s chances in this series improve dramatically.

Equally as important is whether or not he can shut down Lou Williams the way he did Jordan Clarkson in the previous round. The Clippers have no shortage of scorers but Williams provides the Clippers with an offensive dynamic that is different than the rest of the perimeter guards on the roster. Eliminate him from the equation and the Clippers become a much more stagnant, predictable offense.

Harrison: Paul Millsap (more)

Millsap really struggled against the Jazz especially once Mike Conley returned to the lineup and Utah downsized their rotation. Millsap had Denver’s worst Defensive Rating in the series and was a minus-45, which was good for Nuggets’ second-worst plus-minus to Monte Morris (-58). But I think Millsap has a larger role against the Clippers mostly due to LA’s more traditional approach.

Like the Nuggets, the Clippers like to play four big men: Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris, Montrezl Harrell and JaMychal Green. I’d expect Millsap to remain in the starting lineup at least for the first few games of the series.

Brendan: Monte Morris (less)

I’m not sure how you start Morris in this series. He was too small to bother Utah’s guards, and that won’t be any easier with Paul George and Kawhi out there. There’s nowhere for him to hide and frankly, he didn’t shoot well enough to demand a starting spot (just 23% from deep). There’s a great chance Torrey Craig, Harris or even MPJ get the nod in his place, and Morris’ minutes drop from the 25.7 he averaged in round one.

Predict the Stat Line

Nikola Jokic

Adam: 28 points, 10 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 54 FG%, 40% 3FG

Harrison: 30 points, 10.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists per game, 53.5 FG%, 40 3P%

Brendan: 30 points, 12 rebounds, 6.5 assists per game 52 FG%, 42 3P%

Jamal Murray

Adam: 23 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 48 FG%, 39% 3FG

Harrison: 23.5 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists per game, 50 FG%, 40 3P%

Brendan: 25 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists per game, 48 FG%, 38 3P%

Michael Porter Jr.

Adam: 14 points, 7 rebounds, 45% FG, 44% 3FG

Harrison: 13.5 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist per game, 48 FG%, 40 3P%

Brendan: 15 points, 8 rebounds, who cares, 47 FG%, 42 3P%

Series Prediction

Adam: Clippers in 6

I can see the Nuggets winning this series. I don’t think It’s hopeless by any means. There will be parts of the matchup that will be more favorable than the previous series. But the top level talent of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will likely prove too much for Denver to overcome. The Nuggets can win this series behind a monster performance from Jokic that forces the Clippers to bend their game plan and scrambles their already fragile chemistry. Perhaps that is the best bet. But after an exhausting 7-game series in round one and a Nuggets roster that only recently added Gary Harris, I think the Nuggets odds of pulling off the upset are a bit long.

Harrison: Clippers in 7

Jokic is on tap for a monster series. I think the Clippers are likely to focus a lot of their defensive attention on Murray which would leave lots of 1-on-1 situations for Jokic around the basket. Jokic will look to get his teammates involved as always, but he should dominate every big man the Clippers throw his way. The Clippers are also giving up 44.7 points in the paint per game, the third-most in the playoffs so far.

Jokic also just averaged more than 26 points per game on two-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert across a seven-game series. He was the most efficient post-up player by good margin in the first round of the playoffs against Gobert and averaged 1.37 points per possession and shot 17-23 on post-ups. Plus, Jokic was locked in from beyond the arc. He shot 48% from three-point range against the Jazz on a monster 6.6 attempts per game. He’s going to feast on the Clippers.

I’m buying the re-commitment to defense the Nuggets showed late in the Jazz series and Gary Harris’ availability to open this series will be big for Denver. Jokic should have success against the Clippers’ front line to put the Nuggets in position to win a few games as well. But is Denver burned out after its seven-game series, and can the Nuggets manufacture enough offense if the Clippers prioritize slowing down Murray? I think those are the two biggest questions facing the Nuggets. Denver can win this series but ultimately, I think the Clippers’ overall talent wins out.

Brendan: Clippers in 6

It’s felt to me like these teams have been headed for a second-round collision for some time now. I’ve thought for the better part of the year, until Denver went down 3-1, that their season would end in a hard-fought loss to this strong title contender. The Clippers won’t have much of an answer for Jokić, and therein lies the best case for a Nuggets shocker. But Denver’s other star, Murray, will have his hands full against a team stocked with elite perimeter defenders. Patrick Beverley, George, and Kawhi all have the size and prowess to make any ball handler’s life miserable. On the other end of the court, George’s size makes picking a starting lineup tricky. Gary Harris is slightly undersized for the matchup, even if he is a dog, and he probably can’t be counted on for any offense. The same goes for Craig, who typically fares better against smaller guards than players like George and Kawhi. Will it be MPJ? That’s a lot to ask from a rookie.

Denver has a fighting chance in this series and shouldn’t be counted out. But I think the most likely outcome is Clippers in 6. Here’s hoping I’m wrong.