How the Nuggets are approaching a do-or-die Game 5

Paul Millsap wants the Nuggets to play with more physicality. The 14-year veteran told his teammates just that during Denver’s Monday morning film session, perhaps the Nuggets’ final film session of the 2019-20 season.

“I thought yesterday’s game was more us,” said Millsap, who had his best showing of the playoffs in Denver’s 129-127 Game 4 loss to the Jazz finishing with 16 points and seven rebounds. “We know we’ve got to play a little better defense and figure out a way to stop this team from being so hot. I think the physicality of the game has got to step up from our point. Look for us to do that tomorrow.”

My only question for Millsap after his post-practice proclamation Monday afternoon: what took so long?

“I don’t know. I don’t know. We’re in the bubble. That’s my only answer for that,” Millsap said when I asked him why Denver has lacked physicality so far in the series. “But it’s tough especially with younger guys to understand what type of physicality you need to play with. We’ve got a lot of really good, talented guys, but the playoffs is a little different. I think they know that now. We all know that. We know we’ve got to up our physicality if we want to continue to stand.”

Better late than never.

You’d think that last season’s postseason experience would have prepared Denver’s young core for the mentality they’d have to carry into another playoff run. But the Nuggets’ lack of physicality has been one of the central themes throughout Denver’s first-round series against the Jazz which Utah can wrap up Tuesday (4:30 p.m. MT, TNT/ALT). From three-point range, in the paint and on the glass, Utah has hit Denver hard from all angles. The Jazz has mostly gotten what they want whenever they’ve wanted it against the Nuggets’ defense.

The Nuggets have allowed Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz to walk into its pristine pick-and-roll attack nearly every time down the court without much resistance. Rudy Gobert has been a force around the rim on both ends of the floor. Mike Conley, Georges Niang and Joe Ingles have gotten the shots that Utah’s offense is designed to produce. If there’s one thing the Jazz has been throughout all four games, it’s comfortable.

“They set tremendous screens. Rudy Gobert, regular season I think he was one or two. I know in the playoffs he’s No. 1 in screen assists. That guy is putting a body on our guards every possession,” Michael Malone said Monday. “So we have to be more physical in that regard defensively. And on the glass. Last night they only had six offensive rebounds but they converted those into 15 second-chance points.

“When I think of physicality I think of at the point of the screen. I think of when the shot goes up. I think about offensively, owning your spot, being able to catch the ball where you want to, not getting pushed out on the perimeter. So I definitely agree with Paul.”

While the Nuggets brought an energy and competitiveness that they lacked earlier in the series to Sunday’s Game 4, Denver couldn’t pull out a win. However, the Nuggets seem to have zeroed in on what they think they need to correct in order to become the 12th team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 series deficit. More physicality is a good starting point. Next would be finding a way to somewhat limit how effective Mitchell and the Jazz has been in the pick-and-roll.

It’s a tall task. Malone said Monday that the Jazz has been running an average of 100 pick-and-rolls per game against Denver’s turnstile defense, and per NBA.com, Mitchell is leading the playoffs in total points scored (82) as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls. The Jazz love setting up in the alignment below where Mitchell receives a ball screen on one wing from Rudy Gobert and has shooters spaced to the two corners and another on the opposite side of the floor.

Denver dropped Nikola Jokic in pick-and-roll coverage often in Game 4 in an effort to not let Gobert slip behind the Nuggets’ defense and force the Jazz into difficult mid-range floaters. Unfortunately for Denver, Utah shot 11-15 from floater range in Game 4. By design, the Nuggets’ refined pick-and-roll coverage did hold the Jazz to a series-low 29 three-point attempts, but Utah still shot 48.3% from beyond the arc.

“We made the adjustment to keep Nikola down the floor. We wanted to limit the threes. We wanted to limit Gobert getting behind us,” Malone said. “Had success with that, but now you’re unleashing that ball handler who’s able to operate in space, and the pull-up jump shot and the floaters, which analytically speaking are the shots you want to give up, they made at a high percentage last night. It’s a matter of trying to change our looks up, not giving them the same look for 48 minutes where they get into a rhythm. But we’re definitely trying to figure out a riddle on their pick-and-rolls. Obviously we’ve done a poor job of it up to this point.”

Maybe the well runs dry for the Jazz. That could be Denver’s best hope to extend the series based on how the first four games have gone. The Jazz shot just 34.8% on 13.1 pull-up three-point attempts per game during the season but have converted on a blistering 51.6% of its pull-up threes on more attempts (16 per game) in the playoffs, per NBA.com.

Jordan Clarkson could be the Jazz’s top regression candidate. Utah’s sixth-man is shooting 57.1% (8-14) on pull-up threes in the playoffs after shooting just 32.2% on shots of that variety during the regular season. Mitchell is shooting 55.2% (16-29) on 7.3 pull-up threes per game through four playoff games. During the regular season he shot just 4.1 pull-up triples per game and converted on only 32.1% of them.

“I think we’ve come up with a game plan,” Millsap said. “I think we know how to approach the game.”

A Game 4 adjustment the Nuggets will certainly go back to in Game 5 is their new-look starting lineup. In an effort to breed more free-flowing offensive movement and limit the players the the Jazz could pick on defensively, Malone started Monte Morris and Jerami Grant for Torrey Craig and Michael Porter Jr. and the results were positive. Denver got out to a 22-16 lead to open Game 4.

Playing Morris alongside Denver’s starters allowed Jamal Murray to play off the ball. Murray is great when running off screens and has always possessed shooting guard traits despite starting at the point for the Nuggets over the last three years. More of these types of actions from the Nuggets in Game 5 please.

The Nuggets can’t get back into this series in just 48 minutes, but winning Game 5 Tuesday could be the first step towards putting the Jazz on its heels and finding some momentum after a strong showing in Game 4. Gary Harris’ potential return could rejuvenate Denver’s roster too. Harris (right hip muscle strain) hasn’t played in the bubble but was upgraded to questionable Monday afternoon.

“We’re not looking at three wins. We’re looking at one win,” Millsap said. “It’s just take care of business tomorrow. Give ourself an opportunity, give ourself a chance.”