The List: Key battlegrounds for the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz

1. The Jazz are not the defensive juggernaut they were in year’s past. They ranked 13th in defensive efficiency in the regular season, down from 2nd the season before. Rudy Gobert prefers to patrol the paint and deter shots at the rim. He leads the league in shots defended and field goal percentage on shots that he contests among players to contest at least 10 shots per game, according to NBA.com. The Jazz are 3.1 points per 100 possessions better on defense when he is on the court.

Attacking Gobert in the pick and roll is a big challenge but there are ways to get him out of his comfort zone now that the Jazz play with smaller defenders around him. If he can be drawn out of the paint, there isn’t a second line of defense behind him. The free throw line jumper may be the first key to unlocking the rest of Denver’s attack. Shots like the one below will be open early in games.

2. As the analytics revolution has demonstrated, those shots aren’t sustainable over long periods of time. But picking the spots to take that shot with confidence can open up other aspects of Denver’s attack. Jamal Murray was phenomenal in their first meeting at freezing Gobert with hesitation dribbles.

3. When Denver’s guards successfully draw Gobert out of the paint, Denver seems to score with ease.

4. The Jazz will fight over the top of screens and try to chase Murray into stepping inside the three-point line. Last year they toyed with allowing James Harden into the lane as long as they could place a defender on his hip, taking away the three-pointer and step back. They aren’t afraid to try strange and unusual things. They will likely try to disrupt Murray with odd coverages from the guards and leaving Gobert deep in the paint. If Murray can gain separation and knock down a few pull-up three-pointers, Gobert will be forced out even further on the perimeter, opening up the paint for Nikola Jokic to roll.

5. Michael Porter Jr. will also have a role in drawing Gobert out of the paint. The Nuggets like to find him around the elbows and foul line off of pindowns.

6. This shot is effortless for Porter but he’ll have to find the right amount of aggression when hunting for it. Too many mid-range jumpers will tilt the math in Utah’s favor. Porter can attack Gobert out of these actions just enough to force a switch.

7. Those types of reads may be the key to fully unlocking Porter’s value in this series. Make the wrong read and he’ll be playing right into Utah’s hands.

8. The Nuggets may also try placing Jokic as a floor spacer when they go with taller lineups that feature Jerami Grant. Grant will have a height advantage at power forward and may even see some minutes at small forward (or defended by small forwards in lineups alongside Michael Porter Jr.).

9. Another action Denver had success with was placing Jokic in the front of double stagger ball screens. These actions draw Gobert out onto Jokic on the perimeter and leave the rim protection assignment to someone much less capable.

10. The Jazz will also try to defend Jokic without sending help. Gobert defended Jokic on more possessions than any other player in the NBA this season. He also held Jokic to just 49% shooting on 105 possessions when he was the primary defender. Those numbers don’t always line up with the eye test. Jokic attacked Gobert with confidence down the stretch of all three games using slow, methodical moves to get to his spot.

Gobert also fouled out of the double overtime thriller inside the bubble, one of just three games that Gobert fouled out of this season. An aggressive Jokic will pay dividends in a series that finds the Jazz without a competent backup center.

11. Even when Gobert works hard to keep Jokic out of the paint, the Nuggets should have no shortage of tall, competent low block scorers to throw at the Jazz. Paul Millsap only scored two points in the lone game that he played against the Jazz this season but he was guarded by players who are far too small to handle him on the block. He could do damage against Utah’s second unit.

Michael Porter Jr. and Jerami Grant will both be defended by players giving up significant height and length. Plays like this one will be open if Denver can space the floor around Jokic and pick their spots to duck in on the weak side.

12. The real challenge for Denver will be on the defensive end of the court. Even with the absence of Mike Conley, the Jazz still have two very crafty pick and roll players in Joe Ingles and Donovan Mitchell. Quin Snyder likes to use multiple ball screens early in the shot clock that can force a defense to make multiple reads in quick order. They also disguise their attack as well as anyone in the league.

Porter will likely be their main target. They’ll try to play into his inexperience by making him make complex reads, both as the on-ball defender in pick and roll and as the back side help. He’ll have to grow up quickly (or outscore them on the other end of the court) in order to keep pace.

13. The Nuggets have had success using their length to attack Utah’s pick and roll. Crowding the ball handler’s space and rotating hard on the back end is a high risk, high reward game. When it works, Denver can force Utah in turnovers and contested shots. When it fails, Utah finds open kickouts against a collapsed defense. Both the successes and failures on that front were plentiful in their three regular season meetings.

14. Torrey Craig will be an X-factor. His 47% three-point shooting saved Denver in difficult moments last playoffs. This year he is shooting just 32%. The Jazz will likely leave him open to help muck up some of Denver’s more reliable points of attack. He doesn’t need to shoot like last year to be impactful. Plays like the ones below will make up for his lack of floor spacing, especially if Denver can get contributions behind the arc from Porter and Murray.

15. Craig’s hustle can be a double edged sword. He helped hold Mitchell to just four points in their first meeting this season. Overall, Mitchell has scored just 18 points on 31 shots over 129 possessions when Craig was his primary defender. If Craig can maintain those numbers, it won’t matter much whether or not he contributes on the offensive end.

But Craig has a propensity to foul when he gets over-zealous. Plays like the one below are a killer.

16. The Nuggets were outscored by the Jazz in all three games from behind the arc, for a total of 75-159 points off of three-pointers. That battle needs to be closer. Michael Malone has lamented the team’s three-point defense since arriving in the bubble, and for good reason. Opponents are shooting a blistering 44.8% from behind the arc against them, good for the 2nd best percentage inside the bubble.

Some of this may be bad luck. Opponents are shooting 52% on “wide open” threes against Denver inside the bubble. That is nearly 14% better than league average. However, the Jazz lead the league in three-point percentage and catch and shoot three-point percentage during the regular season. Denver shouldn’t count on them to be their first opponent to go cold.

Denver will have to find ways to turn around their three-point defense and limit the number of kickouts created from dribble drives and pick and rolls. Do that and this series should favor Denver. Fail to do it and it may become difficult to keep pace.