Nuggets-Jazz Preview: Matchups that will decide the series, X-factors and predictions

There’s something that just feels right about the Nuggets and Jazz squaring off in the first round.

Maybe it’s the fact that Denver-Utah should be, but never really has been a rivalry. Separated by 500 miles and the Rocky Mountains, Utah is the closest team to Denver geographically, and while sequestered at Disney World for the last month the Nuggets and Jazz have also been tied together by their location. The two team’s food rooms are directly across the hallway from one another inside the Gran Destino Tower.

Perhaps it’s because this series will pit the two-time reigning Defensive Player of the Year against the best offensive center in the league. The leading matchup in the backcourt isn’t bad either as two young franchise lead guards look for their signature playoff moment.

The Nuggets and Jazz are also linked as two mid-market franchises fighting the good fight against the Southern California super teams. Denver and Utah have patiently built their rosters through the draft. The Nuggets’ core three — Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. — were all acquired with Denver’s own draft selections. The same goes for Utah’s core of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell.

Even though injuries will hold Gary Harris and Will Barton out of Game 1 and potentially longer, Denver has better top-end talent and a much deeper bench. The Jazz lost second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic to wrist surgery in May and Mike Conley won’t play in Game 1 Monday after leaving the bubble on Sunday for the birth of his son. It’s too early to tell what his status will be for the rest of the series. Utah will also be without reserve big man Ed Davis who won’t play in the first round due to a knee injury.

Most teams go nine and in some situations 10-deep in a playoff game. Here’s a quick comparison of Denver and Utah’s top-9 players for Game 1.

Denver and Utah know each other fairly well. Jokic and Gobert are well versed in one another’s games from facing off around four times per year over the last four seasons. They know their strengths. They know their weaknesses.

But the Jazz is a much different team — both in terms of personnel and philosophy — than they were in the pre-hiatus portion of the regular season. Utah shot 34.4 three-pointers per game from October through March, the 12th-most in the league. But the Jazz launched 42.1 triples per game over the eight seeding games, the second-most in the bubble behind the Rockets (the Jazz did dot the three-point arc in the two matchups against Denver before the season was suspended, launching an average of 38 three-pointers in two games.)

Georges Niang, who’s averaging just under 20 minutes per game in the bubble, is shooting five three-pointers per contest since the restart. Jordan Clarkson is launching 7.5 threes per game and Royce O’Neale is even getting up around five triples per bubble matchup. Mitchell and Joe Ingles have been taking around one additional three-pointer per game since the season resumed.

Couple Utah’s penchant for the 3-ball with the Nuggets’ struggling three-point defense — Denver had the worst three-point defense in the seeding round and allowed opponents to shoot 44.8% from distance — and the path to a successful Round 1 for the Jazz is clear. If the Nuggets don’t clean up their defense, they’re hoping the Jazz can’t stay hot from three-point range for four quarters much like Utah couldn’t last week. The Jazz opened its seeding game against the Nuggets by shooting 12-21 (56%) from three-point range in the first half but only converted on 5-22 (23%) of its triples across the third and fourth quarters.

If Denver’s able to dodge Utah’s recurring air raids from beyond the arc, this is a series that the Nuggets should win. Denver is 3-0 against the Jazz this season and in three matchups against Gobert, Jokic had his way, averaging 23 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists per game.

Denver beat Utah in a double-OT thriller in the bubble, at home back in January, and in Salt Lake City in February where a Nuggets’ seven-man skeleton crew edged out the Jazz in an instant classic. Behind Jokic, the Nuggets still have the fifth-best offense in the bubble even without two starters.

The Nuggets say they learned a lot about themselves in the playoffs last season. They’ve surely learned a lot from playing Utah three times this year. Let’s see how it translates to this postseason.

Who will be the Nuggets’ X-factor

Adam: Jerami Grant

The Denver Nuggets appear to be at an inflection point in both their go-to lineups and their style of play. Paul Millsap is almost certainly poised to finish the season as the team’s starter but Grant may draw the closing assignment as he did in the team’s most recent matchup with the Jazz inside of the bubble. Grant pairs very nicely alongside Michael Porter Jr., another candidate for the series x-factor. He also has the length, foot speed, and ability to defend perimeter scoring threats like Jordan Clarkson.

Grant can knockdown some shots and provide an outlet for Jokic on cuts and duck ins against shorter defenders, something that keeps the defense from zeroing in on Jokic and Jamal Murray. He also pairs with Torrey Craig a lot better alongside the starters, providing more mobility than Millsap without sacrificing any spacing. Swap him in for Porter Jr. and the team can also maintain some spacing without losing any length.

We’ve been waiting for the big Jerami Grant breakout performance and we got several good looks at it inside of the bubble during the seeding round. If that continues into the playoffs, the Nuggets will have a deep run.

Brendan: Michael Porter Jr.

The most significant question mark coming into the regular season is now the team’s definitive x-factor heading into the playoffs — a deep playoff run hinges in Michael Porter Jr.’s success. We know what Nikola Jokić will provide, but we don’t know what to expect from the role players around him, and who will be reliable from three-point range.

We’re dealing with small sample sizes. Still, there’s plenty of evidence to support what we’re all seeing with our eyes: MPJ can shoot the lights out. Will such responsibility on a team with championship aspirations shake the rookie? He wouldn’t be to blame. But he will be counted on to make a winning impact against Utah.

The Jazz will hunt him on the other end of the floor too. While Porter possesses the tools to develop into a plus defender, he struggles to fight through screens and is behind the curve when it comes to making quick decisions and multiple efforts. If put through the wringer, he’s liable to lose his assignment at some point in any given possession.

Harrison: Torrey Craig

Both Grant and Porter will be X-factors, but don’t dismiss Craig’s importance in this series. Without Gary Harris, at least for Game 1, Craig is really the Nuggets’ only formidable option to guard Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell averaged only 19 points on just 30.4% shooting from the field and 22.6% from three-point range in three matchups against Denver this season and Craig was Denver’s primary option on Mitchell in all three games. Without Mike Conley for at least Games 1 and 2 and no Bogdanovic, there’s even more offensively responsibility placed on Mitchell’s shoulders. The pressure will be on Craig to keep him in check.

Craig will also be the default option that Utah leaves open from three-point range and he’ll have ample looks throughout the series from beyond the arc when playing alongside Denver’s starters. He’s currently shooting 31% from three-point range in the bubble. The Nuggets need that number to be a bit higher.

Predict the Stat Line

Nikola Jokic

Adam: 24 ppg | 9.8 rebs | 9.5 apg | 50 FG% | 40% 3P%

Brendan: 20 ppg | 11 rebs | 8 apg | 52 FG% | 39 3P%

Harrison: 21.5 ppg | 10 rebs | 10 apg | 50 FG% | 35 3P%

Jamal Murray

Adam: 23 ppg | 6 rebs | 7 apg | 45 FG% | 37 3P%

Brendan: 22 ppg | 5 rebs | 6 apg  | 48 FG% | 36 3P%

Harrison: 23.5 ppg | 4.5 rebs | 6 apg  | 45 FG% | 37 3P%

Michael Porter Jr.

Adam: 17 ppg | 7 rebs | 50% FG | 36 3P%

Brendan: 19 ppg | 9 rebs | Probably not too many asts per game 52 FG% | 38 3P%

Harrison: 18.5 ppg | 8.5 rebs | 2 apg | 58 FG% | 38 3P%

Series Prediction

Adam: Nuggets in 5

I’m just such a firm believer in Jokic’s ability to take over a series when the opponent doesn’t have an answer for him. Gobert can give him problems in certain circumstances but he doesn’t have the reinforcements behind him to truly stifle him. That alone makes this series a short one. I’m concerned about Denver’s ability to shoot from behind the arc, especially with Porter playing in his first playoff series and Will Barton and Gary Harris likely sidelined for awhile. But the combination of Murray and Jokic against a team without their full roster to defend them should prove too much.

Brendan: Nuggets in 5

With the recent news of Mike Conley’s departure from the bubble for the birth of his son,  a Jazz win looks even less likely than it did 24 hours ago. While the Nuggets will be without Gary Harris (hip) and Will Barton III (knee) for at least game one and likely the foreseeable future, the Jazz is now without two key players as well (Bojan Bogdanović is out for the season). Conley’s absence makes life easier for Murray, which makes life easier on Jokić and Porter Jr. The Nuggets should roll.

Harrison: Nuggets in 6

Utah’s three-point shooting is scary, especially for a team like the Nuggets who don’t defend the three-point line well and allow tons of threes (especially corner triples). You also worry about Denver overlooking an undermanned team like the Jazz. Still, Denver’s talent can overwhelm Utah’s and without Conley, the Jazz just don’t have the horses to run with the Nuggets.