The NFL and NFL Players Association reached an accord on the terms under which the 2020 season will be played. But the most significant long-term aspect of the deal agreed upon by both sides is how a projected loss of approximately $3 billion in revenue will impact the salary cap in the next few years.
Facing a potential drop of $70 million in the 2021 salary cap from its $198 million figure for this year, the NFL and NFLPA agreed to spread out the impact of this year’s revenue hit. Instead, next year’s salary cap will be no lower than $175 million.
That is a $23 million drop from this year.
It is also $35 to $40 million below pre-pandemic projections for the 2021 cap. That figure is based on projections that include an increase in the percentage of overall revenue allocated to the cap — from 47 to 48 percent in 2021, and to 48.5 percent if a 17th game is played — and the fact that the cap increased by an average of approximately $10 million per year in the last seven years.
Still, it turns a budget-blasting catastrophe into an alteration that will be manageable for most teams, including the Broncos.
Three things to know about where the Broncos stand, with all numbers compiled from the contract figures posted on OvertheCap.com:
1. DENVER IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
The Broncos had $160,195,680 in salary-cap commitments to next year’s team before factoring in this year’s rookie class. Each member of that group came to terms on their first NFL contracts in recent days.
Twenty teams have more in 2021 cap commitments than the Broncos. Fifteen of them already have more than $175 million committed to contracts next year, with four teams — Philadelphia, New Orleans, Atlanta and Kansas City — on the hook for over $200 million in commitments. The Eagles face a particular crunch; unless they engage in massive restructures, they will be unable to work their way into cap compliance without cuts that could create a dead-money total that goes well into eight figures.
2. IF THE BRONCOS DON’T WANT TO MAKE BIG CUTS, THEY DON’T HAVE TO.
If they can carry over $10 million of space from this year’s cap, their present commitments plus next year’s draft commitments would still leave them with $8 to $12 million of space with which to work.
That said, if they are to retain Justin Simmons, they have work to do. The contracts of A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey create no dead money if the Broncos release them next offseason and would save a combined $25.781 million if they are off the books. If both play well, restructures could be in play. These would give these new acquisitions a boost in guaranteed money, a chance to play with the Broncos beyond the 2021 campaign and cap relief.
Von Miller’s contract could also be in play for a restructure and an extension if he returns to his double-digit sack form this year. His salary-cap number of $22.125 million for 2021 is the largest on the roster; the Broncos can create $18 million of space by letting him go. Should Miller flourish this year, working out a restructure and an extension would be a prudent move.
Other contracts that would create at least $5 million of space include those of Kareem Jackson, Bryce Callahan and Ja’Wuan James, although the $8 million the Broncos would save on him is also accompanied by a $6 million dead-money figure.
3. THE STRENGTH OF THE 2021 DRAFT DOVETAILS WITH A POTENTIAL PRIMARY NEED.
That, of course, is offensive tackle.
Left tackle Garett Bolles is in the final year of his his rookie contract. In May, the Broncos declined to pick up his fifth-year option. Re-signing him is on the table. But conundrums exist. If he improves and cuts his holding penalties, would it be a sign of better days to come, or would it be an aberration? Would it be a product of growth as a player, or the fact that this year’s schedule will be played in front of few, if any, fans? That will remove the element of visceral anger and boos that followed his mistakes, especially at home — something which seemed to amplify Bolles’ miscues, especially early last year.
A stacked draft class that could include potential gems such as Oregon’s Penei Sewell, Stanford’s Walker Little, Clemson’s Jackson Carman, Alabama’s Alex Leatherwood and Michigan’s Jalen Mayfield, among others, will offer plenty of options.
