DENVER — At some point, it is likely that K.J. Hamler will eventually take his place among the Broncos’ top three receivers.
But does the speedy second-round pick assume that role immediately, or will he have to work his way up past veterans Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton, both of whom have been productive in spurts in the last two years?
The history of second-round receivers in the last 20 years shows that the Broncos might have to wait just a short while as Hamler grows into his role.
Of the 89 receivers taken in Round 2 since 2000, just 15 of them (16.9 percent) caught 50 or more passes as rookies. Thirty of them (33.7 percent) had 500 or more yards, and a majority of them (49 of 89, 55.1 percent) finished with fewer than 400 yards as rookies.
Those Round 2 rookie receivers averaged 38 receptions for 503 yards and 3 touchdowns per 16 games as rookies. And plenty of those pass-catchers emerged as productive pass catchers despite modest production as rookies; receivers like Vincent Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Chad Johnson and Golden Tate all finished with fewer than 400 yards in their first years after being second-round picks.
It’s not a question of talent for Hamler; it’s a question of opportunity — and the impact of the lost OTAs, truncated training camp and an expected lack of preseason repetitions.
The presence of a proven No. 1 receiver in Courtland Sutton, an emerging game-breaking threat at tight end in Noah Fant, rookie first-round choice Jerry Jeudy and a desire to build a complementary ground game means that opportunities for Hamler could be limited — even if he beats out Patrick and Hamilton for the No. 3 role.
These third-year receivers are not to be discounted.
With Hamilton, two drops in particular show how close he is to becoming a solid contributor. If he catches potential touchdowns against the Raiders and Chargers last year — the first in Week 1 from Joe Flacco, the second in Week 13 from Drew Lock — he would have finished with a stat line of 30 catches, 339 yards and three touchdowns, giving him across-the-board improvement in yardage, yards per reception and touchdowns from the previous year.
The other aspect of Hamilton worth noting is how he posted the two most productive games of his career in the final two weeks of 2019 with Lock at quarterback, finishing with back-to-back 65-yard games against the Detroit Lions and then-Oakland Raiders. Hamilton and Lock found chemistry, and if given the opportunity to build off of that in 2020, Hamilton could finally blossom.
Meanwhile, Patrick has quietly delivered solid, if unspectacular production when healthy. In his last 12 games — which includes the final four weeks of 2018 — he has 460 yards and three touchdowns on 35 receptions, which prorates to per-16-game averages of 47 catches, 613 yards and four scores. Nothing earth-shattering, but solid work for a No. 3 receiver in an offense beset by quarterback instability in the last two years.
At wide receiver, the Broncos have quality and depth that is enviable, if young and mostly raw. That could lend itself to using their potential third receivers situationally until one emerges to seize the role.
In the long term, that is still most likely to be Hamler. But if Hamilton avoids the key drops and Patrick continues to show flashes of brilliance, don’t discount either of them making Hamler’s road to playing time a rough one.
Two other things to note:
1. The No. 3 receiver isn’t necessarily the in the slot. Even though we often think of third receivers manning the slot, the ability to move targets around means that the Broncos’ third target could align himself anywhere. Even though Jerry Jeudy appears likely to be one of the top two receivers, his route-running could translate to the slot if the Broncos want to go bigger on the outside (with Patrick and Sutton) or have Hamler’s speed working from an outside spot. The quality and diverse skill sets in the wide-receiver room will give Shurmur myriad options.
2. Situations could dictate who the No. 3 receiver is. Do the Broncos need a big chunk of yardage? Hamler could be the play. Do they just need to move the chains on third-and-5 from the opponent’s 25-yard line? Hamilton, working from the slot, could get the call. Again, the depth, skills and variety of talent give the Broncos plenty of choices that can pose difficult questions for opposing secondaries.
