With the splashiest signing of the Denver Broncos’ entire offseason, John Elway and Co. snatched up running back Melvin Gordon, making him the headline acquisition of the second wave of NFL free agency.

Gordon’s signing has come with a mix of excitement and skepticism that’s fitting for the mercurial talent, coming off his most disappointing season as a pro. With a litany of factors in play, we scoured the tape to find what Gordon brings to the table and what could derail his signing.

That all had to be evaluated while keeping in mind that just in 2018, Gordon was on pace for a career year only to fall-flat the next season after a long contract holdout kept him off the field until October. After going over more than 10 games from the last two years, here’s what we found.

What to expect

The first thing you’ll notice about Gordon is how he can be an absolute battering ram when he gets to the second level with a head of steam, easily churning out extra yards after most big gains.

With the size and speed to finish runs violently, he’s special and pretty unique for his ability to impose his will on second-level defenders, particularly as games wear on and he gets in a rhythm.

Gordon seeks out contact, which can be both a blessing and a curse, making him an absolute menace to bring down in the open field.

The other part of Gordon’s game that really stands out for a big, complete back is how effective he is on outside runs, especially toss plays which became a staple of the Chargers’ offense with the former Badger in the backfield.

Toss plays became especially lethal in the red zone, where Gordon’s power in space combined with his smooth feet and beautiful cuts make him very hard to handle out on the perimeter.

Typically, outside runs can be fairly hit or miss but Gordon is very consistent running outside, often creating big gains while rarely getting stopped for drive-killing short gains. Succesful outside runners are typically speedy-quick backs who are undersized but Gordon brings an added size and physicality element when running wild out on the perimeter.

Gordon is so effective running outside because he doesn’t waste too much momentum going laterally. Instead, his feet are quick and he rapidly turns the corner, squares his hips and gets into space where he’s going to be most dangerous.

As a runner, Gordon’s started to show more ability to create for himself when not given much runway. That same ability to quickly burst into action or make quick cuts without a head of steam has allowed him to become increasingly valuable running out of the shotgun, an essential skill to fit in Pat Shurmur’s offense.

Gordon’s also developed in his ability as a one-cut runner, allowing him to eliminate useless lateral movement and get north-south.

Just as it’s allowed him to makes plays out the gun, Gordon’s scary with a lead blocker and a forward momentum as an I-formation back with the quarterback under center.

Having him run downhill really helped the 2018 Chargers to a 12-4 record by closing out games in the second half with tough, power runs like these three examples below.

While his long speed and burst might not have been at their peak in 2019, Gordon still had his moments and showed key improvements with his vision and creativity, as well as his ability to create yards for himself. 

A more mature, methodical runner with the same burst he possessed back in 2018 would make for a scary proposition and should be exactly what Denver’s vision was when making this signing.

As a receiver, Gordon got a lot of targets during his time in SoCal and showed some promising ability to find pockets of space as a route runner and is obviously a weapon because of how dangerous he is in space.

With linebackers covering him, as soon as No. 25 turns the corner after catching the ball, he’s off to the races. Gordon’s also a tough matchup lined up wide just because of his size to gain position and the threat he presents as a runner.

Quietly, one of his more valuable qualities as a third-down contributor is as a blocker, where his size and physicality can serve him well.

What not to expect

Gordon’s game is all about getting him in space. On short on dump-offs, screens, outside runs and tosses he’s a terror, but as far as running between the tackles, as you’d expect a bigger back to do, he’s not always at his best.

In that past, that’s been due to a mix of struggles with his vision and creativity as a runner added to some terrible offensive lines he’s had to run behind. Regardless, with a more delineated assignment, like on toss plays, he’s most effective. Dating back to his time at Wisconsin, Gordon’s been a bit of a boom-or-bust runner and had far too many 0-to-2 yard gains, though he’s made strides in this area.

When Denver’s new No. 25 hunts open space, he’s unstoppable, but Gordon doesn’t do that nearly enough, instead, seeking out contact which isn’t going to be a recipe for the long haul.

Another thing that’s consistent about Gordon is how he’s a slow starter and needs about 10 touches to really start making tacklers miss and become dynamic in space.

The other big knock on ‘Flash’ as a runner has been his struggles fumbling the ball. With 14 fumbles in his five NFL seasons.

The majority of those fumbles have come in his first and last pro seasons. It seems like Gordon fixed a few things between 2016-18 but with four fumbles last year ball security became a problem again.

Gordon needs to secure the ball with two hands when he takes on contact, hold the ball high-and-tight and be more aware of defenders coming in to tomahawk the ball out his hands from behind.

Maybe the most important thing we picked up from watching tape of Gordon’s was how, despite the impressive production, he’s a fairly average or uninspiring receiving RB. Most of his production has come off of dump-off passes or screens, not anything that makes him particularly unique to handle in coverage.

The 2014 Heisman runner-up lacks incredibly natural hands as a receiver, double clutches the ball at times or bobbles it in the air.

He doesn’t do a great job of coming back to the ball and helping his quarterback or using his size to gain position and box out defenders. So while the production is impressive, and he’ll get his touches in Shurmur’s offense too, don’t expect a phenom pass-catcher out the backfield.

Beyond anything else, the real question with Gordon is how much he has left in the tank and if 2019 was simply an aberration or the beginning of a decline that so many great runners have to face.

That doesn’t even take into account the obvious durability questions that have limited the former Charger from reaching his full potential already. With 1,690 career carries in his time at Wisconsin and the Chargers he already has lots of tread on his tires.

The other concern is that with so many years of running behind poor lines, Gordon has developed some bad habits, dancing around too much and pushing runs outside to try and create plays by himself. If his wiggle and feet look heavier, like they did this past season, bad habits as a runner will quickly become problematic. 

Worth the risk?

Paying a running back top-five money at his position when coming off a down season is certainly risky given how paying running backs rarely pays off. Even if the Broncos have mitigated some of that risk with a two-year contract, the opportunity cost here shouldn’t be overlooked.

If Gordon ends up being just an average back, this won’t look like a good move as the Broncos could’ve found a similar talent in the draft and used the cap space to address other needs. Not to mention, you worry about what this could do to Phillip Lindsay’s touches, another back who’s shown great effectiveness both in space or with a head of steam in between the tackles.

If Shurmur is smart he’ll find ways to use both backs in the same formations, similar to how Gordon was used in the same backfield with Austin Ekeler. You’ll notice on some of the outside toss plays in the red zone (up above) Ekeler being put in motion helps clear out space on the perimeter.

The Chargers even used Gordon as a fullback with Ekeler as the I-formation running back.

What’s really intriguing about this signing is how effective Gordon has been in so many of the formations that should be featured in Shurmur’s offense. A great example of this is how dominant the former first-round pick was in 2018 at Cleveland doing all of his damage out the gun both as a runner and receiver. 

Now Gordon doesn’t always flash that instant burst as a shotgun runner but he’s shown major improvements and I’d expect that to continue if he can return to prime form.

What’s intriguing here is that with the additions of blocking tight end Nick Vannett plus Gordon and new starting guard Graham Glasgow, the Broncos offense has added some real punch and physicality to their attack. Those three additions with big blockers on the perimeter in Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant give the Broncos an imposing core of playmakers. Which, in turn, should make this iteration of the Shurmur offense a bit unique.

The film was eye-opening and even in a down 2019 season, a proven pro like Gordon is easily an upgrade on Royce Freeman when healthy. How much of an upgrade will determine the true value of this deal.