How Nikola Jokic is set to benefit from Jamal Murray's return

It looked as if the three games in roughly 62 hours had finally caught up to Nikola Jokic.

After converting on 15 of his first 18 attempts in the Nuggets’ loss to the Pistons on Sunday, Jokic began to draw iron. First, he came up short on a 3. Then, Jokic’s 16-foot jumper from just beyond the elbow bounced off the back of the rim. Another try from three-point range around 30 seconds later also missed. Then in overtime, Jokic ‘s first attempt of the extra period — a a six-foot turnaround hook shot over his left shoulder, a shot he’s typically money on — clanged off the iron too.

Jokic missed four-straight shots late in the fourth quarter and into overtime — something he did for just the first time over his last six games — in the Nuggets’ 128-123 defeat. His cold shooting at the end of Denver’s third game in three days for team that’s been playing severely shorthanded as of late was understandable. Jokic logged 40 minutes against the Pistons two days after playing 33 minutes in the Nuggets’ upset win over the Bucks. He also played 35 minutes against the Jazz, 39 in Memphis and 37 versus the Rockets over the last nine days.

Such has been life for Jokic since Jamal Murray went down with an ankle injury back on Jan. 15 in Golden State. Since Murray’s departure from Denver’s lineup, Paul Millsap, Mason Plumlee, and at times Gary Harris and Michael Porter Jr. have also sat for injury and personal reasons. Severely undermanned, the Nuggets have leaned on Jokic as of late more than they have at any other point this season.

It’s been a grind for Jokic, but he’s shown that he’s up to the challenge. In the 10 games since Murray has been sidelined, Jokic has seen his minutes climb — from 31.1 per game before Murray’s ankle injury on Jan. 15, to 36.4 per game over Denver’s last 10 games.

Will Barton has seen his minutes increase too — from 33.1 to 34.7 per game over the last 10 matchups– as has Malik Beasley and P.J. Dozier, who’s been thrust into the rotation due to Murray’s absence. Somewhat unsurprisingly, Jokic has also taken on more of an offensive load than anyone since Denver’s starting point guard fell to the Pepsi Center hardwood clutching his left ankle against the Hornets.

Jokic’s season averages are impressive. He’s posting a career-high 20.2 points to go with 10 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game, and since the Nuggets have caught the injury bug he’s elevated his game even further. With Murray out of the lineup, Jokic is averaging 24.7 pts, 10.8 rebounds and 8.0 assists.

He’s chipping in defensively too, averaging 1.8 steals and 0.7 blocks over his last 10 games while grappling with opposing big men under the hoop as the only true center on Denver’s roster with Plumlee sidelined. He has battle scars up and down his forearms to show for it.

Over the last 1o games, which is the longest absence of Murray’s career, Denver has managed to go 6-4 with wins over the Warriors and Timberwolves, both of which came on the second night of back-to-backs, the Pelicans and Rockets. Denver has lost to Indiana, Houston, Memphis and Detroit of that stretch.

But the 36.4 minutes Jokic is averaging in Murray’s absence is unsustainable over the final 32 games of the regular season. Jokic is an Ironman and hasn’t missed a game due to injury in over two seasons, since Dec. 13 2017, the last of seven-consecutive games he sat out because of an ankle injury. But his heavy minutes load doesn’t exactly go with Michael Malone’s 110, not 82-game regular season, mantra that Denver’s coach began to preach at training camp.

Relief is on the way. Murray was upgraded to questionable ahead of Tuesday’s matchup against Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers (7 p.m. MT/ALT) and if all goes well during pregame warmups, the yin to Jokic’s yang in the Nuggets’ pick-and-roll game will be back in Denver’s lineup.

Portland won’t exactly allow Murray to ease back into game action. Lillard is averaging 45 points, seven rebounds and 11 assists over his last three games, and Murray could spend time checking him but will likely begin the game guarding C.J. McCollum if he starts with Torrey Craig poised to draw the Lillard assignment.

Offensively, Murray will help though. Despite his sub-par shooting numbers this season — Murray is converting on just 43.5% of his field goal attempts and 32.2% of his three-pointers — he’s averaging 17.3 points per game and the possessions that he’ll inherit will alleviate some of the offensive responsibility that’s been on Jokic lately. Murray led the Nuggets in USG% over Denver’s first 24 games of the season and will provide another outlet that Jokic, who’s seen steady double and triple teams at times over the last couple of weeks with the Nuggets undermanned, can hit.

If Murray knocks down those open looks is another story. He’s shooting a career-worst from three-point range and on catch-and-shoot triples Murray is shooting only 36.7%, down from 39.3% a year ago. He’s also hitting on just 30.1% of his pull-up 3s after shooting 33.8% on shots of that variety last season. Murray is shooting a combined 32% on “open” or “wide open” 3s, per NBA.com, after converting on 37% of those looks from beyond the arc last year.

The Nuggets’ offense has been able to stay afloat during Murray’s absence, mostly thanks to Jokic’s efforts but also due to Barton, Porter, and Beasley’s strong offensive play. Jerami Grant, who’s averaging 15.5 points per game since stepping into the starting lineup after Millsap began missing games due to a knee strain/sprain on Jan. 8, has provided an offensive lift as well.

Over the last 10 games the Nuggets have a 112 Offensive Rating, which is slightly higher than the 111 ORtg Denver registered with Murray in the lineup over the first 40 games of the season.

But Murray’s offensive role can lift some of the burden off Jokic’s shoulders. It will pay dividends in the long run.