DENVER — COVID-19 has reared its ugly head and is now throwing a wrench into the college basketball season. Outbreaks across the country are putting programs on pause left and right. And the cancellations are adding up by the day.
No. 21 Colorado State (10-0) is off to a tremendous start on the hardwood this season, having already achieved the second-highest AP ranking in program history, and doing so before we’ve even begun league play. Unfortunately, though, the Rams are going to have to wait a little bit longer to begin facing their Mountain West foes.
After already losing neutral site matchups versus Tulsa and Alabama in the non-conference slate, due to COVID-19 related concerns within the program, the Dec. 28 matchup against New Mexico has now been postponed as well. Fortunately, since the Mountain West elected to modify its cancellation policy on Wednesday afternoon, the league will first attempt to reschedule the matchup against the Lobos. But if they are unable to do so, it will simply go down as a no contest, instead of counting as a forfeit for the Green & Gold.
Along with an update to the cancellation policy regarding forfeits for teams that are unable to participate in league games due to COVID-19, the Mountain West also established the following guidelines for men’s and women’s basketball: 1. A minimum of seven student-athletes and one countable coach is the minimum threshold for an institution to participate in competition; 2. If a team has the required number of participants needed to play but chooses not to, it will be counted as a forfeit; 3. A team can participate with less than the minimum threshold of participants at their discretion; 4. Forfeited Mountain West games will count as a loss for the team choosing not to compete, and as a win for the scheduled opponent, for the purposes of conference standings only. Per the NCAA forfeited games will not change an institution’s official win-loss record.
With the matchup against New Mexico no longer on the table this month, CSU is now slated to open conference play at home against Air Force on Jan. 04. The Falcons are currently riding a three game losing streak, and the Rams have yet to lose to Air Force in the Niko Medved era (6-0). Considering that it will have been close to a month in between games for CSU, though, the Rams definitely cannot overlook Joe Scott’s group (7-4).
David Roddy is on pace to finish as one of the best ever
It feels like an eternity since we’ve gotten to watch this group go to battle but we really can’t overstate just how incredible Roddy has been for CSU. As Aztec Breakdown (@AztecBreakdown) recently pointed out on Twitter, the versatile guard/forward out of Minneapolis is currently on pace to be the second-most efficient player in league history, trailing only Jimmer Fredette (BYU).
https://twitter.com/aztecbreakdown/status/1473367384031305732
Roddy’s POE rating or “points over expectation”, is currently sitting at 5.553 for this season. The highest ever was 5.560 from Fredette in 2010-11.
If you’re looking for an explanation of POE, you can find it here. Essentially, though, it’s an efficiency metric which measures a player’s impact as a scorer and primary defender. What’s important to remember is that POE doesn’t value every shot the same. An example from basketball index is that a dunk should be expected to score more points than a shot from the elbow. This makes sense, right? More times than not, players should be expected to make a dunk rather than a jump shot. And defending a spot up is different than defending a post up. It’s not as simple as just measuring made shots vs. missed shots. It accounts for the nuance of the game and recognizes that some possessions should be considered easier than others, while certain ones are harder. But compared to the average player, guys like Roddy, Fredette, Sam Merrill, etc. are in a conversation of their own.
Hopefully we can find some stability in the coming weeks/months, because it’s a shame that this incredibly talented group is losing opportunities to showcase their abilities.
By the numbers (CSU rankings)
AP Poll: No. 21
Coaches Poll: No. 21
KenPom: No. 35
NET: No. 26
