Pat Shurmur may not be down with many stats, but numbers show significant Denver Broncos offensive improvement

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Broncos offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur doesn’t have much use for numbers — at least the ones beyond what appear on the scoreboard.

So, when asked about which statistics from the “number crunchers” he took into account, he leaned on the hoary sentiments about the only numbers that matter being the score.

“Just points — and wins. The important thing is to win, and then certainly, when you score points. Because we’re all charged with scoring points,” Shurmur said at his press conference Thursday. “We had nine drives the other day; we scored on six of them. I think that’s pretty good, for the numbers guys. And that’s what you want to do — is score points, and ultimately score one more than your opponent, which is a win. The rest of it maybe helps tell the story, a little bit.”

Shurmur elaborated after a follow-up query, but it all came back to points.

“Well, all the efficiency ones are important. There’s a long list of them, right? We scored in two-minute before the half, right? We ended the game with the ball and got a score, right? The one that we didn’t do so well, we had a series backed up there where we went three-and-out; we can’t do that.

“But third downs are good — 5-for-5 in the red zone, I mean, all that tells the story, but ultimately, you want to score one more point than your opponent — that’s important, at least — and then win the game. Those are the important pieces.”

Pat Shurmur is asked about what stats from the “number crunchers” are relevant to him.

His answer, presented without comment.

“Just points — and wins. The important thing is to win, and then certainly, when you score points. Because we’re all charged with scoring points … pic.twitter.com/gXotbLn8iN

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) December 16, 2021

Winning, of course, requires plenty of things coming together. There can be indications of success in defeat.

And, overwhelmingly, lousy offensive performances for the Broncos are typically tied to giveaways; for example, they’ve lost all four of the games in which Teddy Bridgewater threw interceptions, but they’re 7-2 when he plays turnover-free football.

But there are signs of encouragement, particularly in the run game — and beyond the obvious.

Over the course of the season, the Broncos’ rushing-success rate of 41.8 percent ranks tied for 11th, and their rushing expected points added (EPA) of -0.049 ranks 13th, in data collated by rbsdm.com. But since Week 8, the Broncos rank fifth and eighth, respectively, in both categories.

And overall on a per-possession basis — excluding kneeldowns — the Broncos are far more efficient:

Adjusted points per possession:

• 2020: 1.87, 28th
• 2021: 2.20, 17th

Yards per possession:

• 2020: 30.3, 29th
• 2021: 35.3, 11th

Time per possession:

• 2020: 2:30, 31st
• 2021: 3:08, 4th

Percentage of series ending in turnovers:

• 2020: 17.5 percent, 32nd
• 2021: 11.0 percent, 11th

If you go by points per game, yes, the Broncos lag.

But the closer look reveals progress – even though the offense still needs to become more dynamic vertically. Last year’s offense was inefficient and prone to the backbreaking mistake, and the record reflected it. This year’s is steadier, and the Broncos’ improved record and placement in the playoff race also reflects it.

Pat Shurmur doesn’t have much use for numbers, and that’s fine.

But the numbers actually show an offense that has achieved significant across-the-board improvement from last year.

That’s a win.