DENVER — Could Colorado State be leaving the Mountain West? According to recent reports it might be happening in the near future. 

Last week Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports reported that the American Athletic Conference (AAC) is planning on targeting Air Force, Boise State, CSU, San Diego State and UAB to replace Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, who all bolted for the Big-12 alongside BYU, after Texas and Oklahoma both opted to join the SEC. 

According to Dodd’s report, the AAC has discussed the addition of Boise State and UAB most prominently. But obviously the benefit of adding four schools from the Mountain West would be destabilizing the other most prominent conference outside of the power five, along with adding new markets and providing more stability for the currently-wounded conference. 

If the AAC is unable to persuade its top targets, Dodd’s report claims that there are an additional 10-12 teams that are on their radar, including FAU and UTSA, both of which are currently members of Conference USA. There are a few schools in the Sun Belt that the AAC could be targeting as well. 

In response to Dodd’s report, MW commissioner Craig Thompson pushed back to Mark Zeigler of the San Diego Tribune. Although somewhat uncharacteristically, as the MW tends to operate more subtly than the league that claims to be the sixth power conference (AAC), Thompson told Zeigler that the MW is in the process of strategizing a plan. 

The most interesting part of Zeigler’s report, though, was that while not all of the Mountain West members sound interested in leaving for the AAC, CSU and Air Force just might be. 

Matt Brown, a national college football pundit, also reported that CSU and Air Force are the most likely to join the AAC as well. In fact, Brown stated that it’s much further along than most people think, and at this point he’d be surprised if it isn’t announced soon. 

So let’s dive into the pros and cons of it all. 

AAC members (minus departures)

• East Carolina, Memphis, Navy (football only), Wichita State (basketball only), SMU, South Florida, Temple, Tulsa, Tulane.

Pros

• A fresh start. CSU hasn’t won the MW in football since 2002. Sometimes a change of scenery can do good things. 
• At the moment the AAC has a more lucrative TV contract than the MW. (Roughly $7 million per institution in the AAC vs. $4 million per institution in the MW.) But as Zeigler noted in his report, the deal with ESPN is expected to be renegotiated with the departure of some of the league’s key institutions. 
• Playing league games in Texas and Florida would seemingly be beneficial for recruiting purposes. The chance for players to suit up in front of family and friends is always a strong pitch. 
• Memphis and Wichita State (basketball only) are elite hoops programs. 

Cons

• Travel costs, especially for olympic sports. 
• Losing longstanding regional relationships with programs like New Mexico and Wyoming. One would assume that the schools would still try to play the Border War yearly but nothing is guaranteed when it’s not a conference matchup. CSU and UNM have been together for decades as well. I’d hate to see so much history go out the window. 
• The potential of an AAC collapse without its top institutions. Are we even sure this would be an upgrade in competition? Programs like Fresno State, San Diego State and Nevada all appear to be stronger than any of the remaining AAC members. 

What about the Big 12?

The truth is that whether the Mountain West is able to poach schools from the AAC or vice versa, neither is going to get the national recognition that power five leagues do. While the American has had success over the last decade, it still hasn’t resulted in one of their teams reaching the CFB Playoff; not even when UCF or Cincinnati ran the table. It’s why those schools wanted out in the first place. 

One could argue that the best move is to try to continue to build and put yourself in the conversation when the next round of expansion comes around. All signs indicate that the Big 12 is likely coming back to the table for more in the coming years. So a lateral move really might not matter much in the end. 

Final thoughts

I don’t envy the CSU administration right now. This is an athletic department that’s in a really awkward position. We’re way too financially invested to not aim higher but five years of mediocrity has CSU sitting between a rock and a hard place. I won’t sit here and act like I know for a fact what the right thing to do is. There’s just too many moving parts and we don’t know what the conversations are like behind the scenes. I do know that CSU has to get this right though. The consequences of being left behind in the next decade would not just be damaging to the athletic department, it would be awful for the university as a whole.