Best and worst-case scenarios for Colorado's new guys

The Avalanche kind of returns to the ice tomorrow as development camp opens up in the first official on-ice action of the preseason.

With the offseason additions very likely finished, I wanted to start looking ahead at the roster and dig into some of the different angles to look at just what this year’s time might be looking like.

To begin, I wanted to look at what the best and worst realistic outcomes would be for the new faces brought into the Avalanche organization. Before you get into it, I’ll add that I lumped the AHL veterans and the lone European signing in together because while I think they’ll collectively see plenty of NHL action, it is anyone’s guess how that hierarchy might shake out.

Ryan Murray, D

Best case: Beyond Kuemper, Murray is the only guy on this list who is expected to be an impact player of some kind. If everything goes swimmingly, Murray kicks his career-long injury habit to the curb for the second straight season and plays the kind of solid, two-way hockey that has been expected of him his entire career.

If he ends up on the third pairing, Murray gives the Avalanche the kind of talent other teams simply don’t have that deep in their defensive lineup. If he plays a bigger role than that, he is the kind of puck-moving presence who also plays solid and reliable defense to help the Avalanche, especially in the postseason where teams took advantage of the puck-moving deficiencies of Patrik Nemeth and Ryan Graves last year.

If everything goes well for Murray, he produces points somewhere in the 25-30 range while putting in quality minutes on the penalty kill and setting himself up for a long-term contract in free agency next summer.

Worst case: Injuries strike and Murray never really gets a chance to show what he can do. I suppose you could say this is true for every player, but it’s especially true for Murray because of his history. The truth about Murray’s career is that when he’s been on the ice, he’s never been a bad player or a problem spot for any of his teams.

It’s almost entirely about keeping Murray on the ice.

Darcy Kuemper, G

Best case: If anyone reading this is a regular listener of the podcast, you already know how I feel about this one. If Kuemper stays healthy, he’s behind by far the best team he’s ever played on and is entering a contract year at age 31.

If Kuemper was ever going to crossover from a guy that’s pretty good into the legitimately elite territory, this is the season for it to happen. The hopes of the Avalanche bringing a Stanley Cup back to Denver ride as much on Kuemper’s very large shoulders as anyone else in the organization.

With a chance to secure the first major contract of his career and his reputation as a high-end starting goaltender at stake, the best Kuemper has to offer results in him winning the first Vezina Trophy in Avalanche history.

Worst case: Goaltenders on new teams are even more unpredictable than normal. The combination of a new system and sky-high expectations prove to be too much and Kuemper unravels, sinking Colorado’s title hopes.

The other scenario that is probably more plausible is that injuries, which have limited him to just 56 games over the last two seasons combined, crop up again and he is unable to find the rhythm needed to be the front-end starter the Avs envisioned when they traded a hefty price for him.

Mikhail Maltsev, F

Best case: Maltsev is one of the most intriguing players coming into this preseason. The Avs specifically targeted him in the Graves trade with the Devils so clearly the pro scouting staff, which has been very good in recent years finding players who fit Colorado’s identity well, likes what they saw from him in the 33 games he played last year.

Maltsev has a tantalizing combination of size (6’3″, 200 pounds) and speed to go along with a decent goal-scoring touch (six goals in the NHL last year, 11 in 49 AHL games the year before).

Given what we’ve seen from his career so far, this upside is Maltsev cements himself as a legit NHL player and gives Colorado’s fourth line a speedy big body that can chip in on offense and has positional versatility as the Avs want to try him both at center and wing.

If the pro scouts are right about him, he gives Colorado another quality young player (he’s just 23) in a forward corps that is experiencing a pretty serious youth movement this year. The max that I would expect would be a slightly lesser version of what the Avs got from Val Nichushkin two years ago.

Worst case: Remember Vladislav Kamenev? That was a guy who had a 50-point season in the AHL before getting to Colorado and seeing injuries wipe out two seasons of chances to prove himself worthy of an NHL spot. Kamenev eventually got healthy but found himself in a forward logjam that is not unlike what Maltsev faces right now.

If Maltsev struggles to find footing in the lineup, it would seem to set him up for AHL journeyman status. It can definitely be unfair how quickly talented young players get chewed up and spit out by the NHL but teams that are trying to win championships don’t spend time developing talent in the NHL. Maltsev has to prove he belongs in the lineup immediately and a slow start could doom him.

While the six goals in 33 games last year look nice on paper, going back and watching them took some of the shine off because he had two empty-net goals in the dying seconds of games and the others were mostly weak shots that slipped through. That isn’t to say he can’t score, just that what he did get last year weren’t the kind of goals you believe he can repeat on a regular basis.

If that’s the case, it might be a short tenure for Maltsev in Denver.

Darren Helm, F

Best case: The classic veteran acquired in part because he’s a veteran and in part because they lost both Matt Calvert (retired) and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (signed with Tampa Bay) and wanted some stability on a fourth line that could see massive upheaval this season.

Helm isn’t the two-way threat in the bottom six that he was in his prime but at 34 he’s still a speedy and effective fourth-line player who excels at creating havoc on the penalty kill. He should be a little more of a natural fit in Colorado’s up-tempo style than Bellemare was and that might lead to just a tick more offense than what Bellemare provided last year, which was heavily buoyed by empty-net points.

Helm’s PK work, especially, is where he should shine. He can also provide the classic veteran leadership to a guy like Logan O’Connor, whose profile is basically identical to Helm’s.

Worst case: Helm hits the age wall and his slow decline the last few years results in him bottoming out in Colorado, where they predictably are slow to permanently bench him because of respect to his long NHL career.

Kurtis MacDermid, D/F

Best case: Colorado’s pro scouts see something in him that suggests he’ll provide better on-ice results than what he’s done in his NHL career so far, which has been nothing short of disastrous.

This is especially true if MacDermid sees time at forward, which is expected to happen, and is able to convert his decent shot into a weapon on the fourth line and use his size and massive hitting ability to cause problems on the forecheck for opposing puck carriers.

His physicality is really the key for him on the ice because the Avs (and everyone else in the hockey world) diagnosed their postseason problem as a lack of toughness and MacDermid’s acquisition is supposed to try to alleviate some of that problem.

MacDermid’s presence in the locker room is also something that was touted after being brought over from Seattle. Not being in the room last year, it’s hard for me to comment on what those dynamics were but there is absolutely something to say for players who accept themselves as just role players and are comfortable being positive contributors on the fringes of the roster.

Worst case: Injuries or poor reasoning push MacDermid into the lineup full-time either on defense or forward (but especially on defense) and his on-ice results once again prove to be nothing short of horrific.

Even in a limited role, what he’s done so far in his career would be simply unacceptable to repeat in Colorado and that’s the fear here. He was acquired with a specific skill set in mind but if none of the positive the staff believes exist show up, he is just another big defenseman who can’t keep up in a faster-paced NHL that sees him get devoured on a regular basis.

Jack Johnson, D/Artem Anisimov, F (PTOs)

Best case: I grouped these two together because they’re in almost identical boats as players whose reputations surpass their recent on-ice abilities and are coming off injury-marred seasons. That combination is likely why they’re both just on PTOs as the Avalanche are, first and foremost, looking at their health while seeing if they can contribute to the NHL club in some way.

For Johnson, the lack of defensive depth means his best-case scenario is he is healthy and slides into a PK role where he excels at blocking shots and tries to limit mistakes with the puck. Basically, a cheaper (and probably worse) version of what the Avs hoped Nemeth would be last year but with more physicality and name recognition.

For Anisimov, the best-case scenario is he finds the fountain of youth next to Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky and scores 15 goals again on the left wing of Colorado’s second line.

Worst case: For the players, the worst-case scenario is they both get released from their PTOs and their NHL careers are likely over.

For the Avs, the worst-case scenario is they bite on passable play from either guy in the preseason and they once again put up poor seasons on a team looking for decent depth solutions. The PTOs provide the Avs with some cover but giving either player a contract and then watching them continue their steep declines as they flounder as role players while younger players with higher upside toil away with the Eagles.

The Other Guys (Stefan Matteau, Dylan Sikura, Andreas Wingerli, Roland McKeown, Jordan Gross)

Best case: Some of these guys are going to play in the NHL this year, maybe even all of them. It’s impossible to throw the dart and predict which of these guys are going to get the most extensive look(s) with the Avalanche but you know they’re coming for at least some of these cats.

With four AHL veterans here, the pecking order I’m guessing is Sikura and Matteau at forward with McKeown and Gross on defense, in that order for each position.

The real wild card here is Wingerli, the UFA from Sweden who is very small (listed at 5’8″ but that might be generous) but very fast and comfortable playing in a depth role with positional versatility to boot.

The best case is the Avs get decent NHL minutes from somebody in this group. Sikura has always been a very good AHL player who just couldn’t quite get over the hump in the NHL while Matteau just never really panned out.

With Wingerli, I think the Avs would be thrilled to get a Matt Nieto clone.

McKeown has been in an organization with one of the league’s deepest defenses for years (Carolina) but they also consistently went and acquired guys to play ahead of him on the depth chart, so maybe that says something on its own. Gross is a small defender who puts up big offensive numbers in the AHL, an area the Avs are flush at the NHL level so it seems unlikely he would get a call from the big club unless an insane amount of injuries take place.

Worst case: It’s hard to really come up with a serious worst-case scenario for a group of players who are likely spending the majority of their seasons in Loveland playing for the Eagles. I suppose the worst case here is one of these guys sticks in the NHL but shows he really doesn’t belong. Beyond that, this is mostly an upside-only group based on expectations.