Vic Fangio says most teams 'have a quarterback you can win with.' Here's why the Broncos are one of them

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Philosophically, Broncos general manager George Paton and head coach Vic Fangio appear to be on the same page.

It stands to reason. Fangio was in the general-manager interviews that resulted in Paton getting the job. Both toiled decades in lieutenant roles with multiple teams before getting their big chance in Denver.

And both appear to be of like mind when it comes to cornerbacks, quarterbacks and the draft-and-acquisition value thereof.

Last month, Paton told NBC Sports’ Peter King last month that quarterbacks were “available more than franchise corners every year, at least the last couple of years.”

Then, on Thursday, Fangio said the NFL’s quarterback drought has “kind of disappeared.”

“There was (a time) — I don’t know how many years back — where it was really evident that there was a shortage,” Fangio said. “There aren’t many teams now that don’t have a quarterback that you can win with — to various degrees.”

The words “various degrees” are key.

Sixteen of the last eighteen Super Bowls were won by teams guided by quarterbacks who either are Hall of Famers or will likely be there, a group that includes two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning. Joe Flacco and Nick Foles are the outliers. (Yes, Super Bowl LIV winner Patrick Mahomes is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory.) The previous 18 Super Bowl winners included seven quarterbacks who are not yet in the Hall of Fame, and none are likely to make it.

The price of admission to the champions’ club is likely to involve having someone who will eventually be fitted for a gold jacket.

But in the last six years, quarterbacks such as Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, Case Keenum, Brock Osweiler and Blake Bottles have led their teams to playoff wins, and teams guided by Mitchell Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor and Brian Hoyer have guided their teams to the tournament.

In other words, yes, quarterbacks like the ones the Broncos have employed in recent years can get you to the postseason, maybe even win a game. Without a historically-great defense, winning to the highest level is almost certainly out of reach.

But here’s the thing: Coaching can make quarterbacks better — or, to be a bit more precise, or it can certainly bring them up a level — and take the team with them. Recent Super Bowl participants such as the 2016 Atlanta Falcons, the 2018 Los Angeles Rams and the 2019 San Francisco 49ers got there in part because Matt Ryan, Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo played better than their expected norms, thanks to a combination of scheme and the coaching of Kyle Shanahan — Atlanta’s offensive coordinator in 2016 and San Francisco’s head coach in 2019 — and Sean McVay, who guided the Rams to Super Bowl LIII during the 2018 season.

THAT’S WHERE PAT SHURMUR COMES IN

A search of Shurmur’s name on Twitter on is often an unpleasant social-media foray. In the eyes of many vocal supporters, he is to blame for the Broncos’ continued offensive woes and underproduction from the quarterback position.

But since the 2013 season, Shurmur has made a habit of making quarterbacks into more efficient versions of themselves than they were with other coaches.

Last year was the first time since 2012 for Shurmur that this trend didn’t hold up. The reasons can be debated, analyzed and dissected — and frankly, they already have been, time and again over the last nine months.

But the trend was undeniable: From Nick Foles in Philadelphia eight years ago to Daniel Jones with the Giants in 2019, Shurmur’s quarterbacks did better with him than without him.

Foles, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Daniel Jones all posted career-high passer ratings with Shurmur. Jones has a small sample size, having broken into the NFL in 2019, but his second-year rating was 7.3 points lower than his rookie-season figure of 87.7.

Call it the Shurmur Effect, if you will.

The details on the veterans Shurmur inherited from 2013 until he joined the Broncos in 2020:

NICK FOLES: The primary quarterback in Philadelphia for the first two years of Shurmur’s three seasons as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator, Foles looked sensational in 2013 working with Shurmur and then-head coach Chip Kelly before falling back to earth in 2014. Still, his form under Shurmur’s watch easily eclipses any other regular-season stretch of his career — which is a significant part of why he has played for five different franchises since 2015.

• Foles from 2012-present without Shurmur: 864-of-1382 (62.5x%), 8,699 yards, 6.29 yards/attempt, 41 TD, 31 INT, 81.0 rating
• Foles with Shurmur as offensive coordinator (2013-14): 389-of-628 (61.9%), 5,054 yards, 8.05 yards/attempt, 40 TD, 12 INT, 100.5 rating

SAM BRADFORD: Shurmur had Bradford in 2010 as the offensive coordinator of the then-St. Louis Rams, then reunited with him in 2015 in Philadelphia. The following summer, Shurmur was the Vikings’ tight-ends coach, but then after a midseason firing, Shurmur moved up to call plays again.

• Bradford from 2010-18 without Shurmur: 672-of-1096 (59.4%), 9,395 yards, 6.47 yards/attempt, 51 TD, 28 INT, 82.1 rating
• Bradford with Shurmur as offensive coordinator (2010, 2015, half of 2016 and 2017): 992-of-1514 (65.5%), 10,054 yards, 6.64 yards/attempt, 52 TD, 33 INT, 86.7 rating

CASE KEENUM: His big season with Shurmur in 2017 resulted in the Vikings’ only trip to the NFC Championship Game in the last decade, as well as a contract from the Broncos that gave him $25 million guaranteed. But the old Keenum returned under then-offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, and by 2019, Keenum was back to his previous status as a fringe starter.

• Keenum from 2013-present without Shurmur: 984-of-1620 (60.7%), 10,867 yards, 6.71 yards/attempt, 53 TD, 40 INT, 81.3 rating
• Keenum with Shurmur as offensive coordinator (2017): 325-of-481 (67.6%), 3,547 yards, 7.37 yards/attempt, 22 TD, 7 INT, 98.3 rating

ELI MANNING: By the time Shurmur worked with Manning, the two-time Super Bowl winner’s playing journey was nearing its end. Still, he extracted an efficient season from Manning in his 15th year, even though win-loss success eluded the Giants in a 5-11 finish that represented a two-game upgrade on the previous year.

• Manning from 2004-17 without Shurmur: 4424-of-7396 (59.8%), 51,682 yards, 6.99 yards/attempt, 339 TD, 228 INT, 83.5 rating
• Manning with Shurmur, 2018-19: 471-of-723 (65.1%), 5,341 yards, 7.39 yards/attempt, 27 TD, 16 INT, 90.4 rating

Those four quarterbacks, on average, had a passer rating 12.0 points higher with Shurmur than without him.

Bridgewater’s career passer rating is 89.5. Add 12.0 points to that, and you have a quarterback who would have ranked 10th in passing efficiency last year. Even an improvement on the low end — 4.6 points — would have Bridgewater at a 94.1 rating that would have placed him 19th among 35 eligible quarterbacks last year.

Is that great? No, but with the Broncos’ defense and ground game, that would likely be enough to have them comfortably in the playoffs — as was the case for last season’s 19th-most-efficient passer, Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger.

Can Denver win with Bridgewater to the point of putting a fourth Lombardi Trophy in their case? Probably not.

Can Denver win with Bridgewater enough to return to the playoffs? With Shurmur, that seems more likely than not.

That’s what Fangio means when he says that he doesn’t see a “drought” of quarterbacks in the game today.

There may not be a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in the Broncos’ locker room.

But a quarterback who can help them stop this five-year streak of missing the playoffs? There’s a good chance he’s already there.