Grading Colorado's risky acquisition of Darcy Kuemper

In a big-time “balls on the table” type of move, the Avalanche finished off the first day of the new NHL calendar year by trading for Arizona Coyotes goaltender Darcy Kuemper.

The Avs tried to grind out a contract with Philipp Grubauer, who was coming off a career year, but couldn’t find the right middle ground as he left for a lucrative six-year contract from the Seattle Kraken.

With the hole in net, the Avs turned their attention once again to Kuemper, a player the Avs have danced around the last couple of years.

That dance resulted in at least one year of sports marriage as Kuemper arrives in Colorado in exchange for Conor Timmins, Colorado’s 2022 first-round pick, and a conditional 2024 third-round selection.

It’s a downright coup for the Coyotes, who are aggressively embracing the accumulation of draft picks as they attempt to rebuild properly after the failed John Chayka era left them mediocre, expensive, and lacking a clear direction.

For the Avs, however, it’s a little more complicated. Like all things in life, a list of pros and cons can help sort through some of the riff-raff here.

Pros

• Darcy Kuemper, cumulatively, has been awesome the last three years since getting to Arizona and assuming the starting goaltender job
• Kuemper won’t have to be a superhero behind Colorado’s defense but seeing him doing it occasionally for the Coyotes gives hope that he can rise to the occasion when needed
• Going from an also-ran to a team with realistic hopes of chasing a Stanley Cup can, in theory, reinvigorate a player and get the best out of him and Kuemper’s best is among the very best in the NHL
• The Coyotes retained a million dollars in the deal, giving the Avs just a little more cap flexibility to add another potential depth player or two if they want
• Conor Timmins was blocked long-term in Colorado by Cale Makar, Sam Girard, Devon Toews and Bowen Byram
• Timmins has an injury history of his own that includes missing an entire year to concussion problems but he also has not been able to stay healthy in any of his pro seasons, missing games in each of the full years as well as getting hurt in very limited appearances in the Edmonton bubble last summer
• In theory, the first-round pick will be somewhere in the 20s. Best case scenario, it’s 32 because they win the Stanley Cup
• The conditions on the third-round pick are that the Avs win the Stanley Cup and Kuemper plays at least 50 percent of the playoff games, so if that pick conveys, it means the Avs won a Stanley Cup and that’s obviously the goal
• You can take it or leave this as “meaningful” but it’s a thing I think about sometimes with players. Grubauer has spent his entire career behind good hockey teams and has produced a solid career that already includes a Stanley Cup ring. Kuemper has had to scrape and claw and been given up on by multiple organizations. There’s a different fire to guys who have seen their NHL careers in doubt and this is by far the best team Kuemper will have ever played on. That combined with the contract year sets the Avs up to get what should be the very best Darcy Kuemper has to offer as a player
• This one is all about me but trying to remember the third ‘p’ in “Philipp” and only one “n” in “Conor” makes my life as a writer easier

Cons

• Kuemper’s last three years as Arizona’s starter have been great overall but his worst year was the most recent season
• Kuemper is already 31-years-old and is a free agent next summer. If Kuemper pops off, the Avs could be in the exact same position on July 1 next year they were in with Grubauer, where they had to draw a financial line and then move on when they got uncomfortable. That decision is what put them in the position of feeling a little desperate to make sure they beat out the Edmonton Oilers for Kuemper’s services. They could be doing it all over again or signing Kuemper to a contract that will end up using Grubauer as a comparable of some sort (again, assuming Kuemper has a great year)
• Kuemper has a lengthy injury history and has played more than 50 games in a season just once in his career
• Young, cost-controlled right-handed defensemen with top-four upside are among the most valuable commodities in the NHL and the Avs cashed in the Timmins chip on a situation that assumes significant risk (and reward, to be fair)
• The Avs went through all the bumps and bruises of the Timmins development and saw him elevate his game late in the year and have a strong showing in the playoffs just to move him and likely restart that process with Justin Barron
• Timmins provided something of a very cheap failsafe option for the Avs as his salary for next year very likely would have been, at most, $1 million and he had the kind of upside to guard against another Erik Johnson injury. Without Timmins there, the Avs need another guy to assume that job (this is where the retained salary theoretically comes into play)
• The first-round pick is not lottery protected and if Kuemper’s injury history bites the Avs in a major way, it could be a lost season with no reward for the pain at the end of the year with a high draft pick. Unnecessary risk on top of already significant risk Note: After the publishing of this piece, DNVR learned there is in fact lotto protection on the first-round pick

Give us the grade, AJ

That’s a pretty lengthy list of pros and cons to sift through. For me, the bottom line is that the Avalanche pushed their chips to the middle of the table and got a potentially elite goaltender, one that when he’s at his best is better than Philipp Grubauer at his best.

There are obviously risks involved. It’s not a slam dunk of a deal for the Avalanche…yet. History is written by the winners, however, and if Kuemper brings his A-game to Colorado and leads the Avalanche beyond the second round and to a championship, the cost of this is a deep cut everyone will be happy with. If he doesn’t, one of the biggest deals in Joe Sakic’s time as Avalanche general manager will be a lopsided loss.

As far as giving a grade, I can’t ignore the significant amount of risk assumed by the Avs in this deal. The lack of lotto protection on the first-round pick is regularly used by teams to safeguard against the worst-case scenario. The Avs didn’t do that and that’s a problem for me. (Note: With the confirmation of protection, this is no longer a problem for me, obviously.)

What I also can’t ignore is that Darcy Kuemper, at his absolute best, is a top-five goaltender. When he’s on, he’s a 6’5″ monster that we saw make life a living hell for the Avs during the first part of their playoff series back in the Edmonton bubble. The Avs eventually broke through but Kuemper was the only reason that series wasn’t an extremely lopsided sweep.

After the Avs watched Grubauer get progressively worse in the Vegas playoff series loss, they clearly had a comfort level in moving on from him despite a very real attempt to bring him back. When at his best, Darcy Kuemper is the best goaltender that was available this offseason.

The best-case scenario is great but very rarely plays out. There’s just too much risk here for me to give this deal any higher than a B-.