Examining the QB options: Does Andy Dalton make sense for the Broncos?

Third in a series

PREVIOUS ENTRIES: Nick Foles | Marcus Mariota

ANDY DALTON, DALLAS COWBOYS

• AGE AT START OF 2021 SEASON: 33
• EXPERIENCE: 11th year

THE HIGHS: In 2015, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the game, with career highs in yards per attempt (8.4), touchdown percentage (6.5), passer rating (106.2) and ESPN QBR (72.5). Cincinnati won 10 of the 12 games he started and finished, scoring at least 30 points in seven of those contests. The Bengals were one of three teams — along with Denver and New England — in hot pursuit of the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.

Then he fractured his thumb while making a tackle in Week 14 against Pittsburgh. Dalton’s season — and the Bengals’ best chance at a deep playoff run since the 1980s salad days of Boomer Esiason and the late Sam Wyche — evaporated. Dalton’s overall efficiency decline since then has been subtle, but palpable, guiding from a mid-tier starter who made a brief push toward the NFL’s top 10 to one of the large cluster of quarterbacks who vacillate between being lower-tier starters and upper-echelon backups.

THE LOWS: The Bengals benched Dalton nine weeks into the 2019 season. At the time, Cincinnati stood winless and Dalton had a modest 9-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rookie reserve Ryan Finley was so shaky that Dalton returned to the lineup four weeks later, guiding the Bengals to their only two wins of that season.

Dalton’s era-adjusted passer rating has also seen a steady decline from his 2015 peak of 82.7 (based on an average of 66.7, for which passer rating was initially designed). Four of his last five seasons have seen him post below-average passer ratings, including 54.6 and 60.7 figures in 2019 and 2020, respectively. These are the lowest era-adjusted figures of his career.

The 11-year veteran appears to be in the midst of the same transition from mid-tier starter to capable backup and mentor that other quarterbacks such as Matt Hasselbeck, Brian Griese, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson and Dave Krieg made in previous decades. There is no shame in that. But the team that signs Dalton must know what it’s getting. If he becomes the starter, he is a bridge to the next era.

FOUR-YEAR FORM (2017-20)

(Rankings are among 62 quarterbacks with at least 250 total plays — attempts, rushes and times sacked — over the past four years.)

• PASSER RATING: 84.8, 40th
• YARDS PER ATTEMPT: 6.71, 40th
• COMPLETION PERCENTAGE: 61.15, 46th
• TOUCHDOWN-PASS RATE: One every 22.26 attempts, 27th
• SACK RATE: One every 15.23 pass plays, 29th
• INTERCEPTION RATE: One every 38.27 attempts, 39th
• FUMBLE RATE: One every 130.47 plays, 7th
• BALL LOSS RATE (INTERCEPTIONS + FUMBLES): One every 32.62 plays, 27th

WHAT STANDS OUT: If Vic Fangio and the Broncos prize ball security, then Dalton can fit. His ball-loss rate over the last four years is above-average (27th of the 62 quarterbacks measured), and last season he lost the football once every 38.6 snaps, the best rate of his career. Of course, a year earlier in Cincinnati, his ball-loss rate of one fumble or interception every 27.2 snaps was his worst since 2014.

WHY HE COULD BE A FIT: He wasn’t spectacular after stepping for Dak Prescott last year, but after he settled in, he gave the Cowboys a chance to win the dreadful NFC East, guiding them to three consecutive wins in December.

Dalton also saw his form steadily improve over the course of his nine starts last year. After throwing just one touchdown against three interceptions while completing just 58.9 percent of his passes in his first two Dallas starts, he posted a 103.5 rating in his next six starts before fading in the Cowboys’ season-ending loss to the New York Giants.

WHY HE WOULDN’T BE: If the Broncos’ goal is to bring in a reserve who could have the Ryan Tannehill arc if he plays and blossoms, Dalton isn’t the answer.

Another concern is that despite his above-average recent rate of avoiding giveaways over the last four seasons, Dalton throws interceptions in clusters. In the past four seasons, only New Orleans’ Jameis Winston has more 4-pick games than Dalton, who notched three such games: one each in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

HOW THE BRONCOS MIGHT GET HIM: Via free agency. Unless the Cowboys fail to tag or extend Prescott and scramble to keep Dalton as a bridge option, Dalton should hit the market. Once there, he would likely command between $4 and $6 million per year for a one- or two-season contract.