Roll the Dice: Why CSU should look to add a non-conference game before Selection Sunday

FORT COLLINS, CO. — It’s been a while. 

It’s been a while since Colorado State men’s basketball has been able to take the court. The Rams have had five consecutive games canceled or postponed due to opponents having Covid-19 issues. And now, despite still owning a top 50 NET ranking, the Rams are potentially in jeopardy of losing a chance to snag an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. 

As things currently stand CSU still doesn’t have a bad loss on the resume. The Rams were able to split in the three biggest conference matchups: Boise State, San Diego State and Utah State. Plus, while the performance at Saint Mary’s was ugly, the Gaels currently rank 70th in NET due to a 3-5 record in games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. So, essentially it goes down as a flukey night against a talented team on the road. It’s not great but it doesn’t break your back. 

The tricky part for the Green & Gold is if they aren’t able to reschedule the games against Nevada and preferably win both, the selection committee may determine that they just don’t have enough meat on the resume (total wins) — something that seems unfair given the state of a global health crisis — but it’s certainly not impossible in a subjective process. 

Assuming the Air Force games do get played and the Rams win them, CSU would own a record of 16-4, (13-3). At that point most folks around here would assume that the Rams would have also taken care of business against Northern Colorado and New Mexico, however, it’s tough to say whether a national committee would give the Rams the same benefit of the doubt. 

As I have repeatedly stated throughout this rollercoaster of a season for college basketball teams across the country, valuing total wins in a year where everyone had very little control over their schedule seems absolutely ludicrous. Old habits die hard, though. And with that in mind, the Mountain West needs to ensure that CSU can get some more league games in before Selection Sunday. 

Getting in the Nevada series before the Mountain West Tournament is most preferable for CSU. Wins over the Grant Sherfield-led squad would do more for CSU’s cause than beating down the Lobos. And obviously, it’s in the best interest of the conference to try and ensure more members get a shot to participate in the NCAA Tournament. The tricky part is that for the logistics to work, the Wolf Pack will probably have to be able to play at Utah State on Feb. 26/28. And that’s impossible to predict at this point. 

A 2+ week shutdown would be longer than most have experienced at this stage of the season. But it’s far from impossible. Not to mention that if the Utah State games also get postponed, the league will be in a tough spot when it comes to trying to determine which games get prioritized. 

So what else can CSU do? Well, get on the phones and try to make a non-conference game happen. In some ways this would be a gamble considering CSU’s greatest selling point as a candidate for an at-large bid is that the Rams have already proven themselves to be a threat. More importantly, they don’t have a brutal ‘L’ lurking in their rearview — an essential death sentence for teams not in a major conference. 

Playing it safe very well could work out for CSU. If most of the people on the committee think like myself and prioritize quality over quantity, then the Rams would sneak into a play-in game and get their shot the tough way. In the spirit of the Mountain West and it’s Las Vegas-based conference tournament, though, I’d love to see CSU roll the dice. 

I thought CSU had done enough to qualify for the 2015 NCAA Tournament. Like most of Ram Nation, a then-sophomore in college was heartbroken when the 27-win team was left out. 

Looking back at the situation, aside from the overtime win over New Mexico State, CSU’s best non-conference win was over a CU team that finished 16-18. Again, those were different circumstances, and CSU had total control over the schedule in 2014-15. 

That said, if you’re a die-hard Ram fan, it’s tough not to feel nervous when looking at how similar the showings against the league’s best teams were that year. No. 3 CSU (27-7, 13-5) split against No. 1 Boise State (25-9, 14-4) and No. 2 SDSU (27-9, 14-4), and got swept by No. 4 Wyoming (15-10, 11-7). Outside of the top 4, the Rams pretty much dominated the rest of the conference slate, but the lack of quality non-conference wins came back to bite CSU in the ass — particularly after Wyoming went on to win the Mountain West Tournament. 

The Rams could win the Mountain West Tournament, themselves. But who knows what that format is going to look like with so many teams around the league currently struggling to keep the rosters healthy. Banking on winning a single-elimination tournament is also arguably an even bigger gamble than trying to add a quality OOC game some time over the next week. 

Niko Medved and Co. have done a tremendous job of recruiting and developing talent quickly, and as a result of their hard work as well as the player’s, CSU is finally back in a position where they can go dancing. If for some reason the Rams are left out, though, it’s easier to stomach going down swinging than it is to be the team that didn’t do everything it could to prove itself.

Budgetary restraints are very real for a mid-major team out of the Mountain West right now. Even so, if a game can be put on the table, CSU’s administration owes it to this group to make it happen. The rewards of qualifying for the ‘Big Dance’ will more than pay for any money CSU spends on a non-conference game — even if it’s a situation where the Rams have to go on the road. More importantly it’s backing the commitment that the department made when Medved signed an extension prior to the season. The best way to keep quality coaches around is by giving them the best opportunities to compete and contend. That rarely means playing it safe.

It’s time for CSU to go all in and commit to the future of this program. With the roster in place, the Rams will certainly be in contention for the NCAA Tournament in coming years but getting this young group in now would be an invaluable experience. Time and time again we see teams on the rise sneak into March Madness one year, learn from the process, and then go on to make deep runs in the ensuing years. 

Will the sky be falling if CSU doesn’t get in this spring? No. But it’s going to be a crying shame if the reason they get left out is because of an apathetic approach. As of Feb. 17, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has CSU as the first team left out of the tournament.

It’s time to be bold or get left behind.