Before player movement changes the NHL's landscape, should the Avs look inward first?

The market to sign free agents in 2022 begins on July 13th, but UFA’s can begin talking with teams the day after the NHL Entry Draft which starts next week. Bits of championship confetti will still be hiding in sidewalk cracks throughout downtown Denver by then, but Colorado will still be players in free agency.

With roster construction that was effective enough to win the Stanley Cup, the Avs aren’t looking to pursue any nuclear options; however, there are still some questions surrounding who stays, who goes, and where they can get better if possible.

It starts with possible extensions to keep members of the core intact. Nathan MacKinnon can set the tone at the top of that list and Bowen Byram is a name thrown around to extend sooner rather than later with his value on the rise. These two things will influence how much is left to allot to others.

Other teams have begun locking up their coveted RFA’s, so I expect to see Artturi Lehkonen sign an extension sometime this summer after demonstrating he’s a spectacular fit in Colorado.

Looking at some of the potential exits just based on Colorado’s current UFA’s, we can imagine a few possibilities.

The current list of Avalanche free agents is as follows: Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky, Valeri Nichushkin, Andrew Cogliano, Darren Helm, Nico Sturm, Jack Johnson, Josh Manson, Ryan Murray, and Darcy Kuemper.

They can’t all stay in Colorado; and alongside that, there are a number of intriguing outside UFA’s hitting the market: Claude Giroux, Evgeni Malkin, Andrew Copp, Kris Letang, Ville Husso, and more.

The current personnel will change, and with a lot of attention turning to NHL free agency, let’s also take a look within Colorado’s system. Are there any solutions from within?

Some of the first answers will come about in goaltending. Pavel Francouz signed his contract extension in March, so he’s a lock for the near future. Justus Annunen, who played his first full season in the AHL this last year, made important strides forward but it is just his first season after all.  Annunen was the starting goaltender for the Eagles this past season with a 0.893 SV% through the regular season after his role was shared with Hunter Miska during a challenging March. He made his NHL debut on December 6th and simultaneously his first NHL win.

As a Black Ace in the Stanley Cup playoffs, he also benefitted from the guidance of Avs goaltending coach, Jussi Parkkila throughout points this season in addition to the counsel of Peter Budaj. In the Calder Cup Playoffs, Annunen rose to the occasion and carried the Eagles to the third round with a 0.923 SV%.

The 22-year-old had milestone moments and setbacks that are to be expected but would not make for a viable backup option at an NHL level if we wanted to entertain Francouz as a starter.

For that reason, I don’t expect goaltending depth to be something promoted from within at this time. If the price is right, Kuemper may stay. That conversation has started. The market is tight, so the options to usher in a new face are supremely limited, particularly with as many as 8 other teams in need of a starter. Colorado can’t seem to fully escape Marc-Andre Fleury rumors. They could look for a new face to test a tandem goaltending situation but the biggest takeaway is a tight market.

Among the other UFA’s, there is incentive to look at each one to varying degrees. Of the forward group, Kadri, Nichushkin, and Burakovsky might be the first tier to address. The market is Kadri’s to entertain at this point after a career year. If you asked Mikko Rantanen, the possibility of him returning is not unheard of, but it would be quite a gesture.

At 31, he is likely looking for term and it’s a big ask with consideration of the rest of the core to lock up. For the purpose of this hypothetical, I’ll imagine other forwards that could be promoted from within; not for the purpose of replacing Kadri 1 for 1, but a sliding promotion that would elevate others throughout the lineup.

Maybe it’s J.T. Compher promoted to 2C or another glimpse of Rantanen at center again. Will Alex Newhook get a chance at C? Obviously, these aren’t moves of equal value to Kadri’s contributions in the lineup, but maybe it’s just the hypothetical to allow room for Nichushkin and Lehkonen contracts and a MacKinnon and Byram extension with room for one or two more UFA’s. I envision some combination of Helm, Cogliano, or Manson.

With Ryan McDonagh traded, Tampa appears to be making room to extend Palat – a name that has been thrown around in free agency conversations. Similar to Palat is the buzz surrounding Val Nichushkin. He’s been billed as a high priority due to his value and growth in Colorado alongside a presumed price point that could be feasible.

Nichushkin might be the hardest player to replace outside of Nazem Kadri. His strides forward from a bottom-6 player to a formidable, top-line forechecker made him another great fit, and it’s not without acknowledging he became a great fit because of his time in Colorado. It’s my hope that he stays because of mutual benefits to both parties.

First consider Oskar Olausson. He spent the last season playing major junior in Canada. It was a changing landscape that tested him at points and he was utilized on wing with little experience playing center. He finished the year with 49 combined points between both teams and 2 points in Oshawa’s brief playoff run through 6 games.

He’s drawn comparisons to Andre Burakovsky due to his speed, entry, and powerful left shot; so if not center, he is a developing winger with similar experience on the powerplay.

He made his AHL debut in the Calder Cup playoffs and played four games with the Colorado Eagles. It’s not enough to glean any meaningful conclusions about his trajectory to crack an NHL roster, but it was a start. He played on the top line for his debut in the absence of Dylan Sikura who was out with a UBI. With top-line talent, he earned two assists. When played in a more sheltered role on the fourth line for the remaining games, he struggled with visibility and minor, defensive gaffes due to adjusting to the change in pace.

Because of his budding professional experience, I could not responsibly foresee Olausson assuming an NHL position out the gate.

More realistically ahead of Olausson is Mikhail Maltsev, a Black Ace who took some practices in the Stanley Cup playoffs alongside Annunen, Jayson Megna, and Jacob MacDonald. He can switch LW/C, but primarily played 1C with the Eagles and locked in PP1 experience. He plays with better pace from the time he started in Colorado in an effort to adjust to their system. He finished the year with 48 points and earned 6 points through 9 games in the Calder Cup playoffs.

He had two NHL call-up opportunities to grow more familiar with the Avs style of play, but did not register a point through those 18 games. His focus toward the end of the year seemed to emphasize becoming more reliable defensibly, engaging on the backcheck, and being harder to play against.

Most realistically to get a real chance is late-season addition, Ben Meyers. After captaining the University of Minnesota team, the undrafted centerman signed a two-year ELC with the Colorado Avalanche following his junior year. He appeared in just 5 games and scored a goal in his NHL debut. Due to his situation, he could not play for the Avs or Eagles in the postseason and represented Team USA in the 2022 IIHF World Championship. He earned 4 goals and 4 assists through 10 games in their 4th place tournament finish. Though it was just a glimpse, Ben Meyers looked comfortable at the NHL level and could resume a bottom-6 role.

Left-winger Sampo Ranta began the 2021-22 season up with the Colorado Avalanche. Billed as a power-forward coming fresh from the University of Minnesota, he struggled in his first professional season after going scoreless through 10 games with the Avs. He was reassigned to the AHL and struck by a foot/ankle injury that would keep him out for months. It’s not impossible to imagine he will get another look in the future, but he did not string together enough games to demonstrate he would be viable to begin the 2022-23 season with the Avs.

There are more options for the Avs’ (primarily forward) depth that could be resolved in a number of ways. Right-winger Martin Kaut, the looming will they or won’t they prospect, has one year left in his ELC. Also, not mentioned in this are fringe AHL/NHL types also up for consideration: Kiefer Sherwood, Dylan Sikura, Jacob MacDonald and Stefan Matteau are all UFA’s as well.

Outside of goaltending, perhaps the most limited choices will also be the defense. Justin Barron brought about Artturi Lehkonen and Drew Helleson brought about Josh Manson. The pool of defensive prospects has been all but emptied with Sean Behrens still coming up the pipeline. For this reason, I see a motivation to re-sign Josh Manson since the options to promote from within are sparse. Of the available UFA’s outside of Colorado comparable in price and skill, those options appear limited too unless the Avs are willing to spend a little there.

Manson insulated the bottom pairings with size and dabbled with the offensive side of his game. The physicality was a welcome addition to the Avs d-corps which brought added grit. Due to uncertainties also surrounding the next steps of Erik Johnson’s career – this is yet another choice with moving parts that will be influenced by the choices of others.

The Eagles were host to the AHL’s defenseman of the year, Jordan Gross. He had an impressive year, earning 65 points among the league’s leading scorers, and will also be a UFA. However, his style of play would not be a substitute for Manson – they’re very different players. Gross is a small, puck-moving defenseman who has not quite had a reliable NHL showing.

The short answer to all of this is that graduating from the current class of Eagles has its share of possibilities, but it would not be my top recommendation. With convincing, Maltsev is conceivable, and Meyers was as good as already on the roster.

Maybe that sounds grim, but it’s a greater reflection of the year the Avalanche had. It’s a lineup that was constructed so intentionally right down to the deadline acquisitions in the final months. The construction for next year will emulate that. Promotions don’t need to happen out of desperation. It would not benefit Jean-Luc Foudy or Oskar Olausson, who are so early in their development, to be launched too soon.

Jack Johnson, a PTO walk-on out of camp introduces another layer. After the fallout of free agency, much of this can be realized through training camp wherein Sampo Ranta originally saw his first chance up with the Avs. Perhaps a dark horse emerges. Nobody will root for that more than I.