Stanley Cup Final Gambling Primer

One more round to help you top off your summer travel fund. This is the Stanley Cup Finals so there are more props to bet than in previous rounds. Still nowhere near the level of props for the Superbowl but enough to remind me of the Cheesecake Factory Menu as I started to work my way through it. One interesting trend I noticed is that while most of the traditional media is predicting a long series and seems split on the winner, the odds have the Avalanche as pretty decent favorite.

Many of the over/under props also reflect some value on the over bets as the oddsmakers have to account for the potential of a shorter series with a -175 favorite. I went back and forth between the two schools of thought, begrudgingly agreeing with the consensus that this should go 6 or 7 games. I wanted to bet the Avs in 5 but kept coming back to their long layoff and the Lightning’s experience extending this series. I do believe they pull it off and win the series, and here is how I plan to win alongside them.

Colorado Avalanche -175 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

I don’t love -175 but it’s better than 3 days ago. Truth be told if you like the Avs to win you are much better off betting them game to game and looking for the better value between the Moneyline and Puckline. However, we told you were going to pick every series at the start of the playoffs, so that is what we are doing.

Series Total Games

6 games +210

This core of Avalanche has yet to clinch a playoff series at home, so why should we bet they will start now? There is also an emotional hedge component to this pick as I feel if Tampa is going to win this is the most likely game for them to close it out.

Series Goals

Gabriel Landeskog o2.5 +150

Victor Hedman o1.5 +190

I like the plus number on both these bets and if the series extends to 6 or 7 games like we are betting above, I think these have a great chance to cash.

Most Goals

Gabriel Landeskog +800

As you can see, I am expecting Landy to show up when the lights are the brightest. 8-1 feels a little high for someone with Landy’s upside. I also like how he scores a large portion of his goals near the crease. I am consistently impressed with how good he has become on tips, and I think you need that misdirection to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Series Points

Nathan Mackinnon o6.5 -115

Nikita Kucherov o6.5 -115

These two will probably have their lines matched up against one another quite a bit throughout the series. As a result, I think the odds of at worst splitting these bets is very high. Add in the fact that both teams have been effective on the power play and these two are big parts of that for their respective top units and I think we have a great chance to cash both.

Head-to-Head Most Points in Series

Mikko Rantanen -130 vs Steven Stamkos

Mikko found his shot against Edmonton. Plus, even when he wasn’t scoring goals, he was still at a near-point-per-game pace. I was high on him coming into the playoffs and he is going to reward that faith on this one.

Playoff Results

Series Bets 8-6 +5.3units

Prop Bets -14.2units