Here we go, Round 2 is finally all set and we are ready to go. We did ok in the first round in terms of our series predictions, but our props missed a little more than we would like. Let’s rectify that this time around, yeah?
Tampa Bay +145 vs. Florida
If you think Tampa is winning, this is great value to get almost 1.5/1. I think they will win, and I like the value. I also think the series props provide even more value and here is how –
Favorite Prop(s) – Series Correct Score
Tampa 4-1 +950, Tampa 4-2 +550, Tampa 4-3 +600
If Tampa wins, you can bet all three of these and guarantee at worst a +350 payout, if they don’t sweep Florida. I think Florida will win a game or three in this series. I just don’t have a great feel for how many, so I will take Tampa on the ML in the series, paired with these three bets and if they win in a non-sweep fashion, we will take home +495 or better on the combined wagers.
Colorado -1.5 (-170) vs. St. Louis
The odds for this series are very high and all the value is in betting St. Louis. However, I have a very hard time seeing how they win this series. I think the Avs take care of business again and by taking the -1.5 we get the odds to a somewhat reasonable -170.
Favorite Prop(s) – Series Correct Score Colorado 4-1 (+275)
Another way to get some value is bet how many games it will take the Avs to dispatch the Blues. We are going back to this for a second straight series and hoping we get rewarded this time.
Most Goals in Series – Devon Toews +5500
The Blues’ only real chance in this series is to lock down the Avs top line + Cale Makar. Toews was tied with Makar and Gabe Landeskog for second on the team with 3 goals last round behind MacKinnon. If they deploy the stop the stars strategy, it should open even more opportunities for Toews when he is on the ice with them. 55-1 means this is a bit of a long shot but did anyone see what happened in the Kentucky Derby last weekend? Maybe May is the month of the long shot!
Carolina -1.5 (+110) vs. New York Rangers
I hope you are all still holding your Carolina +600 to win the Eastern Conference tickets from last round. If they can get past the Rangers, we will have a lot of options on how to hedge that bet. I think Carolina is the better team and they might get Freddie Andersen back in this series. I think they can win this series without him but will need him to get by the winner of TB/FLA and help us cash that Conference Champs bet.
Favorite Prop(s) – 6 games +210
I don’t love the props for this series so let’s take the series to end in 6 games +210. It provides us a couple of outs and is the most likely ending if a Ranger upset were to happen.
Calgary -190 vs. Edmonton
Dallas was an awful style match-up for Calgary. They should match up better against Edmonton. I don’t love -190 but I am pretty confident Calgary takes this series so I am willing to lay the heavy juice.
Favorite Prop(s) – Most Goals in Series – Evander Kane +1000
Kane was feast or famine in the first round. He recorded 7 goals total but with a hat trick in one game and 2 goals in 2 other games. The other 4 games he provided zero points. My guess is that the Oilers would like a bit more consistency out of him but a goal per game average is pretty solid and 10-1 is great odds for a guy who can provide that type of production.
First Round Results
Series Bets 4-4 +3.75units
Prop Bets -10.9units
