Avalanche Roundtable: Wild Weekend Recap

 

With the NHL Draft completed, the dust begins to settle on one of the more chaotic 48-hour periods in recent NHL history. At the forefront of a large amount of that action was the Colorado Avalanche. Today, we’re going to touch on the Carl Soderberg acquisition, the Ryan O’Reilly trade, and the results of the NHL Draft.

First question today is about Soderberg. With the team trading for and subsequently signing him, it’s clear he looks to be the immediate replacement for Ryan O’Reilly. How do you feel about the team apparently moving forward with Soderberg as the likely second line center on opening night?

Austin says: I’m never going to criticize giving a player an opportunity to show what he can do. Soderberg has shown offensive upside, and a common stance on him is that he excels playing with quality linemates. Last season, Soderberg posted 13 goals and 44 points, just 11 points fewer than the 55 O’Reilly put up with the Avs.

Soderberg isn’t the defensive player that O’Reilly is, but he can still contribute on that end of the ice, and he has the hockey sense and playmaking ability to gel with guys like Landeskog and MacKinnon. Frankly, burying him with third-line minutes would be a waste.

The Avalanche added some intriguing pieces to their lineup, and at a glance, it seems that utilizing those pieces over three more balanced lines, rather than a true top-six might be an effective strategy. I hope that MacKinnon still will get his looks at center this season too, but roster flexibility is a good thing. I’d expect Roy to do some tinkering during the first month or so of the season until he finds some combinations he really likes.

Andi says:  Long term, I’d like to see Soderberg as our 3rd line center, but short term, I think it’s a good move. He does help replace what the Avs are losing with O’Reilly, which is something the club wasn’t able to do via the system just yet. Yes, he’s no Stastny or O’Reilly talent-wise, but he also costs about half as much. That alone presents a lot of great options for the Avs, especially since it frees them up to go after another Top 6 player, including possibly a young, skilled #2 center in the future.

If the rumors about O’Reilly’s desired $64 million salary are true, the Avs are much better off with Soderberg. He’s a much better value, even if he might be a step back on the ice.  In a cap era, there’s certainly something to be said for that.

Cheryl says: To start the season, I’m okay with the idea of Soderberg on the second line. I’m hoping, however, that it doesn’t stay that way for long, that MacKinnon earns his way back to his natural position and Soderberg slots into the third line where he’ll be most effective. I’m looking forward to seeing what Soderberg brings to the team, however; the Avs’ comments about him make him seem like an intriguing addition that will help with the team’s possession woes.

Clearly, he’s not an O’Reilly replacement. O’Reilly is an exceptional talent, and to find his type again would be tough. That said, Soderberg might actually end up a better fit overall, especially when it comes to the business side of things.

Cole says: When the Avalanche drafted Nathan MacKinnon first overall in 2013 they drafted a game-changing franchise center, not a scoring winger. It was one thing to watch MacKinnon displaced to the wing in favor of elite defensive centers like Paul Stastny and Ryan O’Reilly, but that’s not what Carl Soderberg is.

Should the Avalanche try Soderberg between Landeskog and MacKinnon? Sure. Maybe Soderberg thrives with the best linemates he’s had in his career, but the Avalanche absolutely should not wed themselves to the promise of Soderberg as their 2nd line center. If MacKinnon is ever going to step up and lead this team to the promised land, he needs to do it from center ice.

Casey says: Like everyone else, I think the team should focus on developing MacKinnon into the game-changing centerman the team needs for the future. However, Soderberg has proven he can score with less talented linemates than he’ll have on the Avs. Is he a perfect replacement? No. Is his two-way game as strong as O’Reilly’s? No.

But if the Avs are able to use some of O’Reilly’s cap space to sign one or two free-agent defenders, then I believe Soderberg plus one or two free agent blueliners will leave the team overall better off than O’Reilly alone from a defensive perspective. And that’s not even counting the addition of Zadorov, since I was solely comparing Soderberg + the saved money to O’Reilly.

Ryan O’Reilly was finally traded, bringing a merciful end to the ongoing saga that seemed like it would never end. The full details of the trade are:

Buffalo receives: Ryan O’Reilly, Jamie McGinn
Colorado receives: Nikita Zadorov, Mikhail Grigorenko, J.T. Compher, and the 31st overall selection.

Grade the trade and elaborate.

Austin says: I’ve been a fairly avid and vocal O’Reilly supporter during his tenure with the Avalanche, especially in recent months. I was all for giving him a market-value contract, but it seems O’Reilly is pricing himself on the luxury end of market-value.

Overall, I love the trade, and give it an A grade. Joe Sakic had had his hand forced in some ways, and really made the best of the situation. Landing a promising young defenseman, Nikita Zadorov, is no minor accomplishment. The fact that he is left-handed, making him a natural fit to play with righties Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie going forward, only makes getting him in burgundy even sweeter.

Mikhail Grigorenko has played under Patrick Roy, and has tremendous upside if he can get his career back on track. If anyone can coach him up, it’s Roy, and keep in mind, Grigorenko was a former 12th overall selection and is only 21 years old.

Adding McGinn to the deal stings for Avalanche fans, but he is coming off a pretty major back injury, and is an unrestricted free agent next offseason. Clearing his $3M cap hit is smart, and McGinn likely helped secure the Avalanche the final two assets they got from Buffalo.

JT Compher is a future fan-favorite in Colorado in my opinion. He’s got the energy and relentlessness to make him a pesky player on the 3rd line, and helps improve the forward depth in the Avalanche organization. The 31st pick was parlayed into AJ Greer, as well as the second and sixth round selections previously traded to San Jose for Brad Stuart.

Excellent asset management by the Avalanche brass, and the type of move that gives tangible evidence for belief in the Avalanche going forward.

Andi says: There’s not a lot to be upset about. I’ll miss McGinn, but that level of return makes saying goodbye significantly easier. I’m relieved the O’Reilly drama is done, but more importantly, the Avs just turned a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 8th, and a waiver claim into two former 1st rounders, three high 2nd rounders, a 6th rounder, and the ability to offer sheet players that would require our natural 2nd round pick.  Holy value, Batman!

The Avs addressed needs and got rid of an overpriced headache (O’Reilly) and a player with some chronic injury questions (McGinn), and they got younger and cheaper while maintaining talent.  Zadorov looks to be a core player on defense, so I’m honestly struggling to find a downside. Great trade. Sakic and Co. get an easy A from me.

Cheryl says: I love the trade. I’ve been ready to move on from O’Reilly for a long time. Love the player. Really dislike the person. With the trade and the draft picks it returned, the Avs put themselves in a position where they can put out an offer sheet on Hamilton or Saad, both of whom would be dream additions to the team, instantly making the team—with the other acquisitions the past few days—a serious playoff threat. Even without the offer sheet, the Avs have more options for improving the team as moving O’Reilly and McGinn freed up a ton of cap space, leaving the Avs with $16 million with which to tempt free agents and extend contracts on Johnson, Barrie, and MacKinnon.

Adding into this is the O’Reilly Factor. There was no way he was going to stay with this team. He’s been far too much of a distraction, and his conference room attitude seemed to be bleeding into his on-ice attitude. In essence the Avs were trading from a position of weakness as he had to go, yet they turned it into a position of strength and got a great return in the process by adding a projected top-two defenseman in Zadarov, an intriguing prospect in Compher, a draft pick that gave them offer sheet flexibility, and a potential steal in Grigorenko. This trade absolutely earns an A.

Cole says: Lets face it, the $8 million cap hit that Ryan O’Reilly was reportedly seeking from the Colorado Avalanche was not a real offer. Ryan O’Reilly was not going to sign a long term contract with the Avalanche unless they radically overpaid him to stay. As for the trade itself, the Avalanche traded two expensive players (a disgruntled impending UFA and another UFA coming off back surgery) for four, younger players on with RFA cost control.

In O’Reilly the Avalanche do give up the best player in the trade but they fill an enormous need in landing a young top four defenseman with great potential in Nikita Zadorov. Compher and the 31st pick are quality value additions, especially when you consider what the Avalanche turned the 31st pick into, but the real x-factor here is Grigorenko.

Grigorenko is still incredibly young and possesses sky high potential. If he can turn around his game and match Jamie McGinn point-for-point in the future, this trade becomes a home run for the Avalanche. A- with the potential to become an A.

Casey says: Personally I will miss Jamie McGinn as both a personality and a player, but the writing was on the wall for him. I speculated all offseason that the Avs could move him simply because with next year’s contract needs looming, he’s out of the team’s price range for the role he plays. This trade is potentially the best one Sakic, Sherman, and Roy have made so far.

If Grigorenko develops to his full potential, he would boost this trade from an A- to an A+ for me. There is very little to complain about here. This deal would have been all right by me even without Compher, who is an intriguing prospect.

The others have already covered my feelings on O’Reilly himself. I wish him the absolute best and enjoyed his play for the team, but overall I find myself relieved that the recurring drama is over.

AJ says: I give the trade a B, with the possibility it turns into A++. I don’t so much about how the trade turns out for the Sabres. For the Avs, Zadorov has a chance to be an elite defenseman in a couple of years. For now, he’s an immediate upgrade at age 20 with two years left on his ELC.

Mikhail Grigorenko has been horribly mismanaged by the Sabres up to this point and despite that still looked like a future star during his time in the AHL last year. Hopefully the Avs show restraint and patience with him and allow him to find his groove in San Antonio before throwing NHL ice time at him. If they do that, they could have a real steal on their hands.

JT Compher is a player I loved watching this past season at Michigan. He’s a leader through and through and could be an extremely effective third line penalty killing ace in the NHL.

The 31st pick became the 39th pick and recouped the picks given up in the horrific Brad Stuart trade, so it’s tough to be too upset about asset management like that.

If Zadorov, Grigorenko, Compher, and AJ Greer (taken 39th) all turn into impact players, I don’t care how many Lady Byng trophies O’Reilly wins in Buffalo because Colorado will have made out like bandits. Unfortunately with deals like this, giving up the clear-cut best player right now is always a risky proposition but I feel Colorado positioned themselves as well as they could have to maximize the long-term return on the toxic O’Reilly asset.

The Avalanche ultimately made 7 selections in the NHL Draft this weekend. Which were your favorite, least favorite, and most surprising selections made by Colorado?

Austin: I like the AJ Greer pickup in the second round. He has flown under the radar playing for a stacked Boston University team, and should make waves during his sophomore year.

Very impressed with how he has handled himself in interviews after being drafted, and even more impressed with the impact he makes whenever he is on the ice.

Andrei Mironov was a huge surprise, but I don’t hate grabbing him the fourth round. He’s 20-years old, so already a very mature player. Last season he was an all-star in the KHL. It’s a risky pick, as he may or may not ever come to North America. However, fourth round selections rarely pan out anyways, and Mironov is already a proven player in the KHL.

Biggest disappointment is that Keegan Kolesar got away. I think he would have been an outstanding fit for the Avalanche, but was taken 69th overall by the Columbus Blue Jackets– just two picks before the Avs were on the clock at 71st.

Andi: I’m surprised that Rantanen fell to 10, but I’m very excited that he did. He’s going to be a big part of the Avs moving forward, even if it does take him a little bit to adjust to the North American ice. The Avs now have a back pocket ace in case anything happens with their 6, and unlike his CHL and NCAA peers, Rantanen can play in the AHL next year, opening up possibility of call-ups and accelerated development. He also addresses an organizational weakness for large, skilled right wingers, so it’s a great value pick all around.

However, the most surprising aspect was where the Avs drafted from. The solely European, NCAA, and QMJHL picks were a huge departure from the OHL- and WHL- heavy affairs of the recent past, and the two overage Russian blueliners were completely out of left field.  It’s likely that the Everberg and Rendulic signings showed that there’s value hidden in some of the more overlooked leagues, so it’s great that the Avs are exploring different ways to improve the team.

Cheryl says: I don’t think I’ve been this excited about a draft since the Landeskog/Siemens picks. I’m thrilled with the choices the Avalanche made, especially with the #10 pick in Rantanen. He was the player I saw as being the best fit for the team that could possibly be had at 10th, though watching him actually drop that far was a bit of a shock. I can’t wait to see what his presence will do on the ice for this team, and this was by far my favorite pick.

I can’t really say I have a least favorite as the bottom round guys are unknowns at this point. Of those that are familiar (i.e., the first three rounds), none are bad selections. In fact, they all bring something tangible to the team, making why the Avs chose them very clear. But once you hit the fourth round, things get a bit murky.

Certainly hulking Swedish forward Gustav Olhaver was a surprise as it just seems so out of the blue. More surprising was the heavy Russian focus. The biggest surprise, though, was not who the Avs picked, but from where. For a team with a history of favoring the Canadian leagues, the fact that Colorado did not take a single player from the OHL or the WHL leaves me a big dumbfounded.

Cole Says: The Mikko Rantanen pick is as good as it gets for the Colorado Avalanche for all the reasons Andi listed above. The Avs’ have unique development flexibility with Rantanen which is a nice short term advantage as they sort out their new group of NHL forwards. Rantanen has the potential to be a downright special player in the NHL and he just happens to fit an area of critical need for the Avalanche.

The most surprising pick to me is over-age 6th rounder Sergei Boikov. It’s easy to see why the Avalanche took a gamble on the late-blooming Andrei Mironov, but Boikov seems very much the same player today as he was when he went undrafted last summer. Other than a decent raw physical frame, I just don’t see the upside here as of yet.

Casey says: The Avalanche could not have done better with their first round pick unless they’d traded up for one of the Top 5. And even then, what they’d have to give up to have gotten there would give me pause. Rantanen is a steal at tenth overall.

I was less surprised by who the team did draft than I was by who they didn’t. Namely, I was expecting to see more forwards selected and I was absolutely stunned to see not a single OHL or WHL selection.

Grade the overall Avalanche draft and explain why you graded it as such.

Austin says: I grade the Avalanche at an A- overall for the draft. I thought they nailed the O’Reilly trade, and accomplished their goals coming in to this weekend.

The Avalanche potentially filled one of the holes in their defensive core’s top-four with Zadorov, and significantly overhauled their prospect depth, especially at the forward position.

Greer was a savvy pick, even if he might have still been on the board later in the draft. Depending on how the off-the board Russian selections pan out, I may revisit this grade and call it an A in a few years. If passing on Lawson Crouse in favor of Mikko Rantanen proves to be the correct choice, I’ll give the Avalanche an A+ for their work this weekend. Time will tell.

Andi says:  After the trainwreck of last summer, it’s nice to look back at what the Avs have done so far and want to give Sakic a high five. Some of the drafted picks were a bit unconventional, but if they work out, they’ll make this weekend look even better. I don’t think Avs fans could have asked for much more, so I have to give the club an A for drastically upgrading their prospect base.

Cheryl says: As I mentioned earlier, I love this draft. I think they cleaned up and took some risks that could pay huge dividends. The moves they made off the draft board were the best of Sakic and Roy’s tenure thus far. The past few days have made me excited about this team again. Head of the class for this draft: A.

Cole says: The Avs draft was an odd mix of obvious face-value wins and intriguing reaches. It’s hard to find the negatives in Rantanen and Meloche, while Beaudin also looks like a good value pick for the third round. Greer and Mironov have big potential payoffs, but both look like reaches where the Avalanche took them (I personally considered Greer a 3rd rounder).

The Avs certainly drafted with a mission in mind, as all their players measured over 6-foot-1 and large physical players, especially in the NCAA and international leagues, are often good ones to bet on. That said, I’d like to have seen the Avalanche draft a larger number of forwards for their thin prospect pool and take a chance on a higher calibre offensive player, even if they were smaller. B+

Casey says: I was surprised to see Greer go as soon as he did, but other than that most of the Avs’ picks fall about where I’d have expected. The emphasis on big bodies is unsurprising; the surplus of Russians is. I think it signifies a true paradigm shift in the way this team is scouting and drafting, a big ‘changing of the guard’ moment between the Pracey regime and the new Hepple regime. It’s a change I like.

Overall I’d say the team’s moves are B, borderline B+, although like Cole I would have liked to see more forwards in the pool.

AJ says: I liked the draft, though my happiness waned a bit with each passing pick. I think the Avs targeted their guys and went after them, which is one reason why we as a staff were able to hone in on a few guys they ended up selecting. I loved the trade down from 31 to 39 and I know people are going to lament the players selected in between but I’d rather have Greer plus whoever the Avs draft in the second round next year than just Brandon Carlo. I think that was the best move they made in the draft.

My only hesitation with the draft was when Rick Pracey was fired, Roy made no secret that his “lack of vision” on draft day was a big reason why. Nobody could argue that Pracey certainly had a “type” that he preferred and loaded up on them. My question to Roy would be…didn’t he just do the exact same thing? Back-to-back overage defensemen? Power forwards with the first two picks? It sure seemed to me that this draft was all about Colorado stocking up on the same types of players all down the board, the exact thing Roy ostracized Pracey for.

At the end of the day, the Avs didn’t get cute, took players who fit what they’re trying to build, and walked away a more talented organization. I’m giving them a B for the draft because while I like the players selected early, the later picks raised questions for me about the front office preferring size over skill late in the draft.

The Avalanche now have approximately $16 million in cap space as they approach free agency. Given the moves of the weekend, do you have more or less faith the Avalanche will spend wisely on July 1. Why or why not?

Austin says: The past 48 hours have significantly upped my overall confidence in Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy going forward. They managed their assets well, filled organizational needs, tapped into Europe to acquire talent, and significantly improved the roster from top-to-bottom in my opinion.

The Western Conference is extremely competitive, and seemed to only get better these past couple days. I’d count the Avalanche as one of the teams who really improved their future in the west. Landing a guy like Andrej Sekera would propel them right back into the playoff picture next season.

Andi says: The Avs are still going to attempt to massively overpay a defenseman on July 1st, but without the O’Reilly contract sucking away all of the cap space, I feel much better about the situation.  Sakic has stressed that he doesn’t want to do anything that might damage the club’s ability to re-sign Johnson, Barrie, or MacKinnon, so the additional cap space just gives him more wiggle room to accomplish both goals.  It also opens the door to an additional Top 6 forward signing, including the extremely talented (and probably somewhat pricey) Alexander Radulov.

With any luck, the Avs will also continue their trend of looking to the European and undrafted UFA ranks to fill out their prospect pool. From their draft picks, it’s clear they’ve done a fair amount of unconventional scouting, which increases their chances of spotting players that have slipped through the cracks.  Even though it might not have a huge impact on the cap, a few more value signings as a result of draft scouting could make this weekend look even wiser.

Cheryl says: I’ve had more faith in the Avs the past two years than most. I chalk up many of Roy’s and Sakic’s past blunders to naivety and rooky mistakes—and perhaps even a little ego. I think deals like those which were made with Guenin, Stuart, and Berra left them rethinking themselves and their strategies and led directly to the hiring of John MacFarland.

Given his expertise and influence, I definitely believe free agency moves will be handled intelligently with an eye on both future responsibilities and immediate goals. I’m looking forward to watching things unfold.

Cole Says: I wouldn’t call it faith as much as an expectation. The Avalanche are a worse NHL team today than they were on Thursday, but the moves they made at the draft gave them the opportunity to be a much, much better team by the end of next week. Zadorov or no, the Avalanche still need a defensive partner for Erik Johnson and they need it now.

The Avalanche not only cleared out significant cap space, but also built in additional financial security in the form of RFA and ELC contracts for Zadorov and Grigorenko. All that means that the Avalanche have the picks, money, space, and need to be extremely aggressive in pursuit of Andrej Sekera or even RFA Dougie Hamilton.

Of course at the end of the day, the Avalanche can’t sign someone who’s not interested in playing in Colorado, but given their newfound financial situation the Avalanche must be one of, if not the most aggressive teams chasing after Sekera come July 1st.

With O’Reilly, the Avalanche could get by with a second tier player like Christian Ehrhoff or Johnny Oduya, but without him the Avalanche must swing for the fences.

Casey says: I would not be surprised to see the Avalanche walk away with two of Sekera, Hamilton, Oduya, Green, or Ehrhoff and I’ve listed them in the order that I’d prefer they were pursued. The Avs can afford to be jerks here and wave an offer sheet at Hamilton–it’d be nice revenge on Calgary, who started this whole Ryan O’Reilly saga back in the Feaster days.

Saad is another intriguing potential acquisition, but I think I’d prefer the team go for two of the above list than one Brandon Saad.

What this draft weekend and roster shuffling have confirmed for me is that Sakic and Roy have shown their ability to move forward from last season. With some of the talk we were getting at the end of the year–stuff about “all the pieces” being in place, relying on injuries as a talking point–a lot of us were genuinely concerned that management thought their lineup didn’t need any changes. However, the front office is showing now that they think change is both necessary and possible. It’s great to see.

I’ll reserve my applause for when ink meets paper, but I think the Avalanche management has a chance to knock this one out of the park.

AJ says: I already felt like the Avs were going to be aggressive in free agency but after watching them work like madmen to set in correcting the mistakes of last summer I’m even more convinced the Avalanche are going to be major players on July 1. With cap space, opportunity, and a team on the verge of being very competitive, the Avs have done all they can before the free agency period to set themselves up to be a prime destination for players this year.

At the end of last season, the Avs were regularly playing Guenin, Stuart, Holden, and Redmond. If the Avs do the work they’re capable of in UFA, there’s a very real possibility only one of those players sees the ice on opening night. If that comes to fruition, good luck, Central Division.