Top 5 Players for 10th Overall

Who are the Avs going to select with their 10th Overall pick?  It’s a fairly daunting question, especially in this draft.  With a glut of high-end prospects projected to go in the 5-12 range, it’s difficult to narrow down who might be on the top of the club’s list when Sakic heads to the podium Friday night.

However, over the past year, the Avalanche front office have dropped hints about who they’re looking to select.  Unlike in years past where the team has simply selected the best player available, Sakic and Roy believe that a more needs-based approach is the best way to deal with the salary cap.  This info makes it a little easier to read between the lines and understand who they might choose.

For one, Roy has repeatedly stressed that he’d like the team to get bigger.  He believes that in the West, teams need to be able to handle heavier players like Getzlaf, Perry, and Thornton in order to be successful.  If that’s the case, the Avs’ fairly small and skilled core could use a boost in size.  In 2014, every player selected by the Avs was over 6′-0″, so look for that trend to continue.

Then there’s the question of position.  While the draft can occasionally help with intimidate team needs, at 10th Overall, it might be a few years before the player chosen is ready to make the NHL.  It’s therefore important to project where the team will be in 2-4 seasons and attempt to fill in gaps before they appear.

Looking at the Avs current roster, there are four crucial spots coming due. Unfortunately, Iginla and Tanguay aren’t quite as young as they used to be.  Both of their contracts end within the next two seasons, and they may or may not be back.  Either way, it’s important for the Avs to have a prospect ready to take over their spots in the Top 6, so more high-end playmaking and power forwards are desperately needed in the system.

The other two spots are on defense.  Hejda isn’t going to be able to handle top pairing minutes for much longer, and with his contract up, he may not even be back next season.  Unless the Avs score a big free agent this summer, both Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie are without stable left-handed partners next year.  The Avs do have a few promising prospects for these roles on the way, but with two spots open, it never hurts to add more.

When these size and positional concerns are applied to the list of top prospects, five names stand out as the best candidates for this year’s first round pick.  The Avs could still go off the board and choose a player like Timo Meier or Evgeny Svechnikov (especially if the five listed below have already been selected), but more likely than not, one of these young players will be wearing a burgundy and blue sweater before the end of the week.

Power/Playmaking Forwards

Lawson Crouse, LW, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)
As one of the most divisive players in the draft, it’s really hard to tell whether or not Crouse will still be around when the Avs head up to the podium.  His lackluster scoring numbers do cause some concern, but his defensive play, beautiful shot, and aggressive forecheck do not.  He’ll still need to work on his passing and skating, but his large frame is already filled out and ready for the NHL.  He may not score as much as some of the players drafted after him, but his very well-rounded game would make him a valuable asset for the Avs, especially if Ryan O’Reilly is traded this summer.

Mikko Rantanen, RW, TPS Turku (Finland)
Whereas Crouse is more of a shoot-first player, Rantanen is more of a playmaker.  His biggest upsides are his passing, vision, hockey sense, and ability to shelter the puck when it’s on his stick.  While he doesn’t play very physical and may not always make use of his size, his awareness in all three zones and tendency to make those around him better would make him a great pick at #10, particularly with Stastny gone and Tangauy potentially nearing retirement.

Pavel Zacha, C/LW, Sarnia Sting (OHL)
In many ways, Zacha is the middle ground between Crouse and Rantanen.  He has a beautiful shot, physical play, and an aggressive forecheck, but he also has silky hands, great passing skills, and impressive vision.  His biggest knock is that he only managed 37 games and 34 points in his North American debut this year.  It’s also pretty clear that he’s still learning how to manage the smaller ice defensively and where to draw the line between good and reckless hits.  Even so, if the team is looking for someone to replace Iginla’s role in a few years, Zacha might be the best choice.

Top Pairing Defensemen

Ivan Provorov, LD, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
If Provorov drops to 10th Overall, it’d be a draft day miracle.  The toolsy, two-way defenseman brings scoring, size, and stable play.  He easily projects as a top pairing defenseman, and his left shot would make him a great complement for either Erik Johnson or Tyson Barrie.  His strong vision and passing abilities could help the Avs possession woes, and his calm and intelligent demeanor would help Varlamov down around the net.  If he’s there when the Avs head to the podium, there shouldn’t be any debate of who the team should select.  Provorov is the obvious top choice.

Zach Werenski, LD, University of Michigan (NCAA)
While Provorov might have a bit more of a scoring touch, Werenski is no slouch himself.  His current partner is the top ranked defenseman for this draft (Noah Hanifin), but Werenski’s stable play and excellent transition skills bring out the best in his teammate.  His game isn’t flashy or particularly eye-catching, but his skating is smooth, his demeanor is unflappable, and his decision making is on point.  He’s also more likely to be around  when the Avs head to the mic, so it’s fairly easy to see Sakic selecting the no-nonsense blueliner Friday evening.