NHL Draft Underrated and Overrated Prospects

Cole says: Of Gabrielle’s 23 goals last season, a whopping 19 of them came at even strength and Gabrielle finished the season 9th in the WHL for even strength points per game. That kind of even strength production considering Gabrielle’s ice time and role is nothing to scoff at.

Add in an extremely impressive NHL Draft Combine, where Gabrielle ranked 1st for mean power output, 1st for fatigue index, 1st for bench press, and 10th in pull ups, and the Regina winger offers some serious value in the draft’s 3rd round and beyond. Gabrielle’s impressive strength and conditioning are a testament to his work ethic and motor, and could be the thing that separates him from from other mid round picks when it comes to carving out a spot at the professional level.

Austin says: I have two dark-horses Avalanche fans should keep in mind on draft day. The first is Keegan Kolesar of the Seattle Thunderbirds. Kolesar is rated 65th among North American skaters by Central Scouting and 91st among all skaters by Future Considerations, making the fourth-round his sweet spot. To me, Kolesar looks like the type of player Patrick Roy will love.

He is a physical player with a tremendous work ethic, dominant board play, and versatility to handle a wide range of responsibilities. He can also drop the gloves, and I would describe him as a “new-age enforcer” — a hockey player who happens to fight, rather than a fighter who is forced into a hockey lineup.

Kolesar is a guy who could really impact a team’s bottom-six within a couple of years, and can bring some of that fiery relentlessness that a Cody McLeod type brings to the table. While McLeod’s hockey skills aren’t what they were in his younger days, I still appreciate his competitive spirit, and think that is something you need on a hockey team. Kolesar has much more offensive potential than McLeod in his prime, and is also extremely strong on the penalty kill.

His main weakness is skating, but he has dedicated himself to improving in this area, and it’s certainly an area he can continue to make strides in.

I’d take a chance on Kolesar in the third-round, and would certainly gobble him up if he was on the table in the fourth. I think Kolesar is destined to be a strong possession player in the NHL, who wins his battles in the trenches, and is an asset on the penalty kill. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he develops into one of the more feared third-liners in the NHL within the next five years.

Austin says: The other guy I wouldn’t mind the Avalanche taking a look at is a completely different style of player from Kolesar. Dmytro Timashov is that guy, and in addition to having one of the cooler names in the draft, he is an extremely skilled hockey player. Timashov is rated as the 92nd best NA skater by CSS, despite putting up 90 points in 66 games. The reason? Size.

Timashov is listed at 5’10” and relies on speed and clever play to impact the game. He is listed as capable of playing on either wing, and is also playing for Patrick Roy’s former junior team, the Quebec Remparts. Based on draft ratings, Timashov is looking like a mid-round guy, likely to come off the board in the fourth round. I wouldn’t consider him a priority pick for the Avalanche, but a guy who you keep an eye on, especially if he falls to the later rounds.

He is a prime candidate to be overlooked due to lack of height, but at a certain point the potential value of adding a player as talented as Timashov to your organization becomes too high to pass up, even if you are looking for bigger forwards as a first priority.

If the Avalanche were to draft Timashov, they would undoubtedly leave him in the farm for a few years, and see how he grows. As a late-round pick, you don’t expect much, but Timashov is about as talented a player as you could expect to find in the bottom half of the draft, and there is tremendous upside if he blooms.

A.J. Greer, F, Boston University (NCAA)

AJ says: Not very often does a player score 7 points in his draft year as a forward and find his way into the NHL Draft but AJ Greer is doing just that. At 6’2”, 205 pounds, Greer has the size NHL teams love and his third line role as a freshman on a loaded Terriers team this past season meant his skills were rarely on full display.

His howitzer of a goal in the semifinal game versus North Dakota showed what he was capable and what teams can look to expect moving forward as he gets more ice time in an expanded role in Boston.

Pius Suter, F,  Guelph Storm (OHL)

AJ says: An overage player after going undrafted in 2014, Suter went from a 4th line and penalty kill specialist role to playing on Guelph’s top line with NHL draft picks Tyler Bertuzzi, Jason Dickinson, and Robby Fabbri (who only played 30 games). Suter’s goal-scoring and mature defensive game is a unique combination that could make him an effective Frans Nielsen-type of player in the NHL.

Casey says: Though Roslovic has seen his stock rise recently in several mock drafts, he has received relatively little press outside his native Columbus comparable to other similarly-ranked prospects. Most services have Roslovic going somewhere between the second and third rounds. He’s a speedy puckhandler with a knack for breaking into the zone and has experience playing on the USNTDP top line.

His play has shown improvement year after year and his ceiling may be as high as some names touted as potential first-rounders. If he somehow did manage to fall to the third round, he’d be a steal.

Austin says: As far as overrated players go, I think Gabriel Gagne fits that mold for me. He’s a guy who has gotten some second-round hype (including a 36th NA skater rating from CSS), and I really think that would be a reach for the Avalanche to grab him in that slot. Gagne has tremendous size, and is a great skater, but aside from those attributes he didn’t stand out in my viewings.

I personally see Gagne as more of a mid-round guy, and would wait to see if he was available in the fourth-round before drafting him. I don’t dislike his game, but think that he is getting a bit of extra love on a lot of draft boards do to his size. Gagne’s a project, and there will be a lot of other excellent talents available in the second and third rounds of this draft who would be a shame to pass over just to grab one of the bigger forwards available.

Cole says: There’s no doubt that Connor has some impressive speed and skills that make him an intriguing option in the first round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. His game evolved and became more well rounded this past season, but at the end of the day, the USHL just isn’t as competitive as the CHL and that makes Connor’s numbers hard to stack up against big producers from the CHL available alongside Connor.

It’s disappointing that Connor didn’t show more offensive growth in his draft year, scoring just 3 more goals and 6 more points than he did in the 2014 season, especially since a player of his caliber should dominate the lesser USHL with ease. Add in concerns about Connor’s consistent effort and this long term project looks like it has high bust-potential.

Denis Guryanov, RW/LW, Togliatti 2 (Russian Jr)

Cheryl says: Guryanov is a question mark going into the draft already as he has yet to make a commitment to pursuing an NHL career. However, I still think he deserves to be on the Bust list as his talent will make him a first round selection, but whichever team takes him is doing so on a huge gamble. This is much like going all-in at the poker table: you can either hit the motherload or be done for the night. Guryanov has the potential to send you home early.

Rasmus Andersson, D, Barrie Colts (OHL)

AJ says: It’s not that I don’t like Andersson’s game because I do but I think he’s going to get drafted a too high based on his size and statistics instead of his skill set and future projections. He put up huge numbers for Barrie, an offensive powerhouse, this season but his game is rough around the edges and his struggles to separate himself as an athlete at the combine raise legitimate concerns about just how high his ceiling really is. Andersson’s consistent struggles with the speed of the OHL is a major red flag.

Casey says: Make no mistake, Guhle is a talented young defenseman, but Central Scouting has him ranked in the 50s and a few voices have suggested he might crack the second round. There are some glaring issues with Guhle’s play when he tries to get too cute with the puck or tries to force a play through when it isn’t advantageous. This tendency toward complicating things and his tunnel-vision can almost certainly be mitigated with development and good coaching.

If a team did spend a second-round pick on him, they’d likely be passing over candidates that are further along their development path.