6 dark horse candidates that could help the Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche had an interesting summer, one defined by some money they were sort of allowed to spend and the uncertainty of a complicated salary cap situation.

You might remember that Gabe Landeskog is still injured, having last played in the NHL in Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final when he, you know, lifted the Stanley Cup following Colorado’s victory over Tampa Bay.

You might also remember that Val Nichushkin missed the end of Colorado’s last two playoff runs because he was in the NHL Player Assistance Program. His most recent trip to the program was mandated by the NHL and came with a six-month suspension, at which time he’d be eligible for reinstatement and would go back on the Avs’ books.

The uncertainty around both situations left a weird summer where the Avs had to make low-money adds around the fringes of the roster. At some point soon, I’ll get into all of those and look at what has to happen next, but the announcement of the Rookie Faceoff Roster by the Avs means we’re almost to training camp.

Nearing training camp also means nearing an important date: September 12, the day the Avs had made a signing each of the last two years. In 2022, it was Evan Rodrigues, who worked out nicely and became a key part of Colorado’s forward corps. Last year, it was Tomas Tatar, who was a total bust and eventually moved to Seattle for a draft pick.

Even if that day comes and goes without a contract, the Avs have still used the professional try-out (PTO) system as a way to measure their interest in certain players. The Avs have signed several of those players over the years, from Rene and Gabriel Bourque back in the day to Jack Johnson and Joel Kiviranta in recent years.

All of this is just to say that I’ve spent time tooling around on PuckPedia to try to find some guys that fit the bill for a PTO this season. After looking through some fancystats and knowing a little bit about how the Avs conduct business, here are six names I think could make sense.

The list is not ranked.

Ryan Carpenter

Longtime fans of DNVR will roll their eyes because this is not even close to the first time I’ve mentioned him in regards to the Avalanche, but here we are. He was heavily pursued by the Avalanche back in the summer of 2019 but he chose a three-year deal over the two the Avs were offering.

To be honest, I’m not entirely sure of the state of his game at this point. He’s a versatile forward who has experience playing all three forward positions, but shot suppression has followed him throughout his career. He managed just 12 points in 62 games played.

He wouldn’t solve the faceoff issue as he was at just 47.8% last year and is 48.4% for his career, but he’s a guy they have previously liked and might be a min-max upgrade over Chris Wagner for the fourth-line center job. A perfect PTO candidate.

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

When Carpenter chose Chicago’s offer, the Avalanche turned their attention to Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, who accepted the two years the Avs had on the table. Bellemare was as advertised in Colorado, winning 55.7% of his draws in an Avalanche sweater and consistently killing penalties.

The Avs wanted to bring him back for a third year, but he took the multi-year offer in Tampa Bay instead of accepting a one-year contract in Denver so it wasn’t as if he left on acrimonious terms.

Bellemare will turn 40 before the postseason begins and has slowed considerably. He’s still good for killing penalties and winning faceoffs, two areas the Avs badly need to improve (especially in conjunction), but the rest of his game has major question marks after scoring just seven points in 40 games.

He’s an excellent PTO candidate because if he can keep up in camp, it makes sense to give him a deal. If he can’t, then the Avs move on.

Max Pacioretty

I can already feel some eyes rolling right now. I know, I know! He’s been injured a lot over the last several years and when he was healthy enough to play last season, his game had completely cratered.

All of those things track with me. He’s also more of a top-six option who you want to score goals than a checking player who will do the dirty defensive work. He’s also a wing, which is where the Avs have options. All of this is to say that Pacioretty and Colorado are probably enough of a misfit that this won’t be the play for either of them.

But…what if? What if Pacioretty was just (really) rusty last season and struggled to find his game and legs? A career 11.1% shooter, he scored only four goals in 40 games and shot an obscenely low 4.2% for the Caps. He still drove offense at a respectable level (23 points wasn’t bad, especially given the low goal total), but the finishing wasn’t quite there.

What if he gets back to the goal-scoring ways that have defined his career? The upside is tantalizing, to say the least. I struggle to see it, but veterans have loved the opportunity provided by the up-tempo Avalanche in recent years so until he signs somewhere, I’m going to keep saying, “What if?”

Kailer Yamamoto

Here’s maybe the most fascinating guy on this list, both good and bad. He has pedigree as a former first-round pick (this mostly just means teams have done a ton of homework on him), has had some success in the NHL, is skilled and young enough to think he could be part of your future, and will be cheap (the nature of PTOs).

He’s only played 80 games once and he produced career-highs in goals, assists, and points (20, 21, 41, respectively). He even had 114 hits that season, which is impressive considering he’s 5’8″, 153 pounds. His point total plummeted to just 16 points in 59 games, however, and staying in the lineup has been a problem his entire career.

Like seemingly everyone (including Bellemare), Yamamoto struggled in Seattle last season and that has left him looking for work. He’s a wing-only player whose size means you can’t ask him to play much of a checking game and that makes his versatility within the lineup questionable.

While the Avs are potentially without Landeskog, Nichushkin, and maybe Artturi Lehkonen (we’ll see how that recovery from shoulder surgery is going when camp opens) to begin the season, Yamamoto would have no problem finding a spot alongside either Nathan MacKinnon or Casey Mittelstadt.

Any combination of multiple players from that list returning and Yamamoto is going to get squeezed in a hurry. The problem for Yamamoto in Colorado would be where he fits after that and where he can still be a productive player. It wouldn’t be a bad roll of the dice, however, and could be similar to what the Avs have on defense in Erik Brannstrom.

He fits the style, has an immediate role, and it works financially. All of those things would make him attractive to other clubs, too, who also might be able to offer more consistent ice time. The Colorado bump is real, though, so I’m keeping an eye here.

Cal Clutterbuck

If you made me place a bet on who from this list would actually end up in Colorado, it’s Clutterbuck. He does nothing to address their center issues, but he’s a longtime PK ace and would replace Andrew Cogliano in nearly every facet.

He’s a veteran who has long been lauded for his leadership and work ethic who excels at killing penalties and throws the body consistently enough that he became the NHL’s first member of the 4,000-hit club. His physicality is his number one selling point for any team looking to employ him.

He’s also one of the only players on this list who isn’t coming off a disastrous statistical season as his 19 points in 82 games is close to normal production for him (the fancystats were bad, which is also normal for him!).

His lack of foot speed is a mismatch for Colorado’s style but this is another guy the Avs tried to acquire a couple of years ago but a deal failed to materialize. He checks a lot of boxes for what the Avs like to target with PTOs, but his lack of playing center and being slow might be dealbreakers.

Nick Bonino

Since I’m writing this piece, you’re subject to my editorializing and I’m using that freedom here to say that Bonino is (by far) my least favorite of these choices, but there’s still logic in it and I figure let’s talk about it.

He’s a center by trade, so that’s nice. He’s got a good reputation around the league and that always plays when we’re talking about PTOs. He was at 51% on faceoffs last year and is damn near exactly 50% for his career with over 10,000 faceoffs taken. That’s another box checked.

The downsides here are strong, however, and the player card above from JFresh really hammers home the downward trajectory he’s been on. Despite playing against the weakest competition his coaches can find him, his effectiveness on both sides of the ice plummeted so badly that the New York Rangers terminated his contract last season when Bonino said he wasn’t willing to accept a demotion to the AHL.

You can see where the Rangers were coming from. He was a below-average skater, had just five points in 45 games, and had a 5v5 expected goals-for percentage of 38, which is shockingly low for someone who played that many games.

He was brutally bad. The upside here is that the downward trend Bonino has been on the last two seasons is an aberration and he fills the 4C job that is currently a glaring weakness on the Avalanche roster.

The downside is that every trend that has been true for the 36-year-old forward is a sign that he’s at the end of his career. PTOs are good for a little looksie.