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The 2021 NFL Draft will be like no other with teams playing vastly different schedules and a large number of prospects opting out of the season.
In a year like this, trying to gain some perspective and putting the draft class into context is key and that’s what we hope to accomplish with the top-200 prospects in the class graded in tiers.
This is the fifth year we’ve published the final top-200 with the tiered grades at DNVR and you’ll find comparisons to previous classes and contextualized grades establishing expectations for each player below.
Tier 1: Elite prospects (Top 5 in most drafts, or franchise cornerstone players)
2021 joins the 2016 and ’17 drafts as the third with multiple tier-1 prospects. Lawrence’s combination of positional value, overwhelming raw tools and multiple years of consistent production at the highest level are a rarity, making him the first quarterback to earn an elite grade in five years. Pitts’ value lies in being a monumental mismatch threat, making him the first pass-catcher to receiver an elite grade.
The two join Quinnen Williams, Joey Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, Myles Garrett and the oft-injured Malik Hooker as the sixth and seventh prospects to enter tier-1.
1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2. Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Tier 2: Top-10 talents
This tier is made up of blue-chip prospects, franchise pillars who project to be top-10 players at their respective positions, which is to say they shouldn’t see the open market until at least their third contract because their talent will warrant a franchise tag or long-term deal.
This year’s tier-2 is dominated by offensive prospects with three receivers, two potential franchise QBs and a blindside protector that projects to hold down the left side for a decade-plus.
There is a lot to like here and having eight prospects in the first two tiers is significant and speaks to the depth of star talent in this class.
3. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
4. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
5. DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
6. Penei Sewel, LT, Orgon
7. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
8. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Tier 3: First rounders (High-level starters)
18 first-round grades is low but it’s not the worst turnout, as 2018 only had 16 but it’s significantly lower than the 23 we saw in a much deeper 2020 draft. Of those 18 first-round graded players only two are defenders.
The prospects here are all pretty clean, especially given the odd circumstances that this draft presents, and profile to be at least above-average starters with one exception. Trey Lance is a rule breaker here, with only 17 starts to his name at the FCS level but the polish in certain areas and absurd natural talent added to his positional value pushed him up to this tier.
The top of this tier has some potential to exceed expectations but has more question marks than the tier-2 prospects. You’ll be hard-pressed to find a bust with prospects 15-through-18 even though there might not be a star in that range.
9. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
10. Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
11. Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
12. Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
13. Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
14. Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
15. Teven Jenkins, RT, Oklahoma State
16. Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
17. Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
18. Creed Humphrey, OC, Oklahoma
Tier 4: Late-first and early second-round talents (Projected starters with upside for more)
Easily my favorite tier each and every year. This is where the draft is made; roll the dice correctly on one of these mercurial talents and you might have won the draft but there’s also greater risk involved once we enter this tier.
From injuries to character concerns, lack of experience, a clearly designated NFL position, or lack of versatility to fit in any scheme, there’s significant added risk to this group but that’s why it’s fun.
21 prospects in this tier alone is a lot and speaks to the volatile nature of this draft, where you’ll find several prospects at premium positions with tantalizing talent but some serious question marks as well. It’s also worth mentioning that with a normal 2020 college season, a few of these prospects would’ve checked off enough boxes to receive a first-round grade.
The upside of this group is right with the tier-3 prospects and a few of the names on this list will far exceed expectations—we’ve already seen multiple MVP candidates come out of this tier in previous classes.
19. Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
20. Micah Parsons, OLB, Penn State
21. Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
22. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, SS, Notre Dame
23. Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
24. Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
25. Jalen Philips, EDGE, Miami
26. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
27. Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
28. Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
29. Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
30. Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
31. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
32. Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
33. Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
34. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
35. Landon Dickerson, OL, Alabama
36. Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
37. Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
38. Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas
39. Ronnie Perkins, EDGE, Oklahoma
40. Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
Tier 5: Second rounders (Immediate contributors and expected starters within their first two seasons)
Usually, the high-upside prospects would mostly be gone by this point but there are still plenty of intriguing talents in this range of the draft.
Receiver, cornerback, edge rusher and the offensive line have dominated the rankings accounting for over half the prospects in the top five tiers.
65 prospects is pretty deep here as well. Expect quality early contributors who, with some grooming, will be able to fit into an NFL starting role in their first two years.
41. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
42. Carlos Basham, DE, Wake Forest
43. Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
44. Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
45. Spencer Brown, RT, Northern Iowa
46. Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
47. Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State
48. Israel Mukuamu, CB, South Carolina
49. Elijah Molden, CB, Washington
50. Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
51. Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
52. Trey Smith, OG, Tennessee
53. Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson
54. Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State
55. Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville
56. Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
57. D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan
58. Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami
59. Aaron Robinson, CB, UCF
60. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
61. Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State
62. Pete Werner, ILB, Ohio State
63. Kelvin Joseph, CB, Kentucky
64. Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
65. Baron Browning, OLB, Ohio State
Tier 6: Third-round talents (Starters by the end of first contract)
Always the bones of any draft; players who have the necessary tools but will typically turn into NFL-level starters by their contract year. We’ve seen it in Denver where Justin Simmons took off and then became an above-average starter by his fourth season and that’s exactly how he graded out.
You’re not looking for star-level talents here but rather NFL starters who you might have to make tough contractual decisions on in four years but who under a rookie contract could be steals.
Like the first round grades, merely 100 prospects who profile as future starters is a bit shallow but given the unpredictability of this class expect more from the next tier down.
66. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
67. James Hudson, OT, Cincinnati
68. Stone Forsythe, OT, Florida
69. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
70. Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State
71. Marquez Stevenson, WR, Houston
72. Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford
73. Ben Cleveland, OG, Georgia
74. Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State
75. Richie Grant, S, UCF
76. Hamilcar Rashed Jr., EDGE, Oregon State
77. Chris Rumph II, OLB, Duke
78. Hunter Long, TE, Boston College
79. Jabril Cox, LB, LSU
80. Dayvion Nixon, DT, Iowa
81. Nico Collins, WR, Michigan
82. Janarius Robinson, EDGE, Florida State
83. Walker Little, OT, Stanford
84. Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB, Syracuse
85. Cam McGrone, LB, Michigan
86. Marvin Wilson, DT, FSU
87. Alim McNeill, DT, NC State
88. Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina
89. Demetric Felton, RB, UCLA
90. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
91. Jalen Mayfield, OG, Michigan
92. Tommy Tremble, TE, Notre Dame
93. Brenden Jaimes, OT, Nebraska
94. Deonte Brown, OG, Alabama
95. Aaron Banks, OG, Notre Dame
96. Josh Meyers, OC, Ohio State
97. Talanoa Hufanga, SS, USC
98. Elerson Smith, DE, Northern Iowa
99. Adetokunbo Ogundeji, EDGE, Notre Dame
100. Payton Turner, EDGE, Houston
Tier 7: Day-three gems
There are lots of projects once we get to this tier or just more specialty players that will only be able to see the field on specific down-and-distance. This year you can find lots of talented linebackers, defensive backs and offensive lineman in this group.
There have been some real gems in this tier before like local products Austin Ekeler and Phillip Lindsay. This year, Colorado State wideout Warren Jackson is the 20th ranked receiver and 134th prospect overall.
101. James Wiggins, S, Cincinnati
102. Quinn Meiner, OC, Wisconsin-Whitewater
103. Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
104. Jay Tufele, DT, USC
105. Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
106. Jackson Carmen, OL, Clemson
107. Jamar Johnson, FS, Indiana
108. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina
109. Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
110. Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State
111. Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech
112. Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina
113. Kendrick Green, OG, Illinois
114. Seth Williams, WR, Auburn
115. Tyler Shelvin, DT, LSU
116. Monty Rice, LB, Georgia
117. Olaijah Griffin, CB, USC
118. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
119. Dan Moore Jr., OT, Texas A&M
120. Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
121. Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M
122. Brady Christensen, OC, BYU
123. Jordan Smith, OLB, UAB
124. Daelin Hayes, EDGE, Notre Dame
125. Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn
126. Charles Snowden, OLB, Virginia
127. Larry Borom, RT, Missouri
128. Tommy Doyle, OT, Miami (Ohio)
129. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma
130. Jaret Patterson, RB, Buffalo
131. Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas
132. Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State
133. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Memphis
134. Jaelon Draden, WR, North Texas
135. Warren Jackson, WR, Colorado State
136. Semi Fehoko, WR, Stanford
137. CJ Verdell, RB, Oregon
138. Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana
139. Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville
140. Brady White, QB, Memphis
141. Darrick Forrest, S, Cincinnati
142. Patrick Jones II, DE, Pittsburgh
143. Cade Johnson, WR, South Dakota State
144. Malcolm Koonce, EDGE, Buffalo
145. Victor Dimukeje, EDGE, Duke
146. Josh Imatorbhebhe, WR, Illinois
147. Jacob Harris, TE, UCF
148. Chauncey Golston, EDGE, Iowa
149. Jaylon Moore, OT, Western Michigan
150. Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina
151. Marlon Tuipulotu, DT, USC
152. Tommy Togiai, DT, Ohio State
153. Tarron Jackson, DE, Coastal Carolina
154. Dayo Odeyingbo, EDGE, Vanderbilt
155. Jalen Twyman, DT, Pitt
156. Thomas Graham, CB, Oregon
157. Robert Hainsey, OL, Notre Dame
158. Drew Dalman, OC, Stanford
159. Marlon Williams, WR, UCF
160. David Moore, OG, Grambling
161. Landon Young, LT, Kentucky
162. Royce Newman, OT, Ole Miss
163. Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee
164. Hamsah Nasirildeen, S, Florida State
165. Osa Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA
166. Bobby Brown, DT, Texas A&M
167. Joshua Kaindoh, EDGE, Florida State
168. Joshua Bledsoe, NB, Missouri
169. Richard Lecounte III, S, Georgia
170. Rashad Weaver, EDGE, Pittsburgh
171. Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse
172. Elijah Ponder, DT, Cincinnati
173. Jaime Newman, QB, Wake Forest
174. Tre McKitty, TE, Georgia
175. John Bates, TE, Boise State
176. Milton Williams, DT, Louisiana Tech
177. Benjamin St-Jude, CB, Minnesota
178. Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan
179. Camryn Bynum, CB, Cal
180. Ar’Darius Washington, S, TCU
181. Ernest Jones, LB, South Carolina
Tier 8: Sixth and seventh-round talents (Special teams and depth pieces)
209 draftable players is exactly the total what we had last year and speaks to how many prospects entered this draft and how many unknowns there are. Given the right circumstances, there are players in this group who will find their niche role and even start in certain situations but primarily we’re looking at special teamers and injury replacements.
182. Larry Rountree III, RB, Missouri
183. Cameron Sample, DE, Tulane
184. Zech McPhearson, DB, Texas Tech
185. Caden Sterns, S, Texas
186. Shaun Wade, DB, Ohio State
187. Darren Hall, S, San Diego State
188. Ian Book, QB, Notre Dame
189. Rakeem Boyd, RB, Arkansas
190. Paris Ford, S, Pittsburgh
191. Trevon Grimes, WR, Florida
192. Derrick Barnes, LB, Purdue
193. K.J. Britt, LB, Auburn
194. Darrian Beavers, LB, Cincinnati
195. Tuf Borland, LB, Ohio State
196. Tyler Vaughns, WR, USC
197. Drake Jackson, OL, Kentucky
198. Darius Stills, DT, West Virginia
199. Chris Evans, RB, Michigan
200. William Bradley-King, DE, Baylor
201. Tommy Doyle, OT, Miami (Ohio)
202. T.J. Vasher, WR, Texas Tech
203. Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Iowa
204. Tristen Hoge, OG, BYU
205. Kary Vincent Jr., CB, LSU
206. Ben Skowronek, WR, Notre Dame
207. Khyiris Tonga, NT, BYU
208. Ben Mason, FB, Michigan
209. Bryan Mills, CB, North Carolina Central