2020-21 Nuggets Preview: Season predictions, X-factors and more

At halftime of the Lakers-Clippers opening night matchup Tuesday, Charles Barkley posed this question to Kenny Smith and Shaquille O’Neal: who is the second-best team in the West?

“The Nuggets,” Smith said.

“The Nuggets,” echoed Shaq.

The Nuggets aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year. They’re a known commodity after last season’s pair of 3-1 series comebacks. Nikola Jokić is a unanimous top-10 player. Expectations will be through the roof for him this season. On the topic of expectations, Jamal Murray was ranked as the 21st best player in the league by ESPN. That put him ahead of the likes of Bradley Beal, Karl-Anthony Towns, Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving and Rudy Gobert.

It’s not championship or bust for the Nuggets this year. Denver has set itself up for a long contention window that will extend well beyond just this season. But there is pressure on the Nuggets’ core to improve from the team they were last year. That’s just what’s expected of a team that’s still somehow the fifth-youngest in the league and has taken a step every season.

But here’s what I know about these Denver Nuggets. With the passing, scoring and playmaking of Jokic, Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and a deep roster of capable role players, the Nuggets have the potential to be the best offense in the league. Who’s going to stop these guys? With two proven closers in Jokic and Murray, the Nuggets should again be one of the best clutch teams in the league.

What about the defense? In a regular season environment, Denver will be fine. In the playoffs, the Nuggets aren’t as good of a defensive team on paper as they were last year, but that doesn’t account for internal improvements from Jokic, Murray and Porter. During last year’s postseason run, the Nuggets also didn’t have their third-best player and quite possibly their third-best defender in Will Barton.

We’ll find out if the Nuggets can take the next step soon enough. Denver tips off its regular season tonight at home against the Sacramento Kings.

Like the rest of the NBA, DNVR’s expectations for Jokić, Murray and the Nuggets are also sky high.

Here’s how the DNVR Nuggets staff sees the season shaking out.

Who will lead the team in scoring?

Mares: Nikola Jokić

Wind: Nikola Jokić

Vogt: Nikola Jokić

Superstar Dev: Jamal Murray

Wind: Every year we wonder if this is finally the season that Jamal Murray, not Nikola Jokić, leads the Nuggets in scoring. And every year we’re reminded that the big fella just gets buckets. Even if Murray takes the leap, I still think Jokić takes the Nuggets’ scoring crown again this season. Jokić is surrounded by the most offensive talent, ball handlers and playmakers that he ever has been in Denver. I’m betting it leads to more wide open jumpers (and threes) and Murray, Monte Morris, Facu Campazzo and Will Barton setting him up with an endless amount of open shots at the rim.

The Nuggets’ are planning to run a more up-tempo offense this season. Denver wants to shoot more corner threes and shots at the rim while cutting down on its mid-range attempts. Jokić is also entering the season in great shape and looked spry this preseason. He has a great energy to him and seems focused even after the short offseason. Everything seems to be lining up for Jokić to have a monster year.

Who is the team’s biggest X-factor?

Mares: Michael Porter Jr.

Wind: Michael Porter Jr.

Vogt: Michael Porter Jr.

Superstar Dev: Will Barton

Wind: For the second year in a row Porter is Denver’s biggest X-factor. If his individual scoring is able to mesh with Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, he’ll help form a truly special offensive trio and one of the more imposing big threes in the league. If not, then Porter could still anchor Denver’s second unit on the offensive end of the floor. He’ll need to be a better defender in the playoffs this season than last, and he will be (I think). Because Denver’s path past the Lakers and to the Finals probably includes a crunch time lineup that features Jokić, Murray and Porter on the floor together.

Injuries aside, what is this team’s best realistic regular season win total?

Mares: 54

Wind: 55

Vogt: 54

Superstar Dev: 50

Vogt: The Nuggets have been racking up regular-season wins for a while now behind an All-NBA Nikola Jokić and an inconsistent Jamal Murray. Having seen Murray at the peak of his powers, and with a potential breakout year coming from Michael Porter Jr., a monster season seems within their reach. Across 72 games, 54-plus wins will be tough to accomplish if this season is indeed as turbulent as we fear. The second-unit will need to click, the stars will need to mesh, and everyone will need to stay healthy. Still, this team should win a lot of games again. It’s what they do.

Injuries aside, what is this team’s worst realistic regular season win total?

Mares: 41

Wind: 45

Vogt: 46

Superstar Dev: 38

Wind: Let’s even factor in injuries for a moment. With an ironman like Jokić, who hasn’t missed a game due to injury since December, 2017, the Nuggets proved again last season that their floor is ridiculously high. Denver won 46 games during a 73-game regular season last year despite injuries to Murray, Harris, Millsap and Porter. That floor will remain ultra high this season.

Denver has a more mature and talented roster this season with multiple players (Murray, Porter) in line for potential leaps. After Murray faced the most complex defensive schemes of his career throughout three different playoff series last season, regular season defense will feel, dare I say it, easy to go against. After Porter just went through a crash course on playoff defense and what it takes to be an impactful offensive player in a postseason environment, the game will slow down for him this season too.

Although it’s TBD on just how seamless of a fit Jokić/Murray/Porter will be on the floor together, the rest of the pieces fit. If Porter comes off the bench for most of the season, he’ll be one of the more potent second unit scorers in the league. Denver will be able to win a ton of games by just out-scoring its opponent. If the regular season defense is close to where it was last year — and with baked in improvements from Murray and Jokić there’s reason to believe it can be just as good, if not slightly better — it’s hard to envision the Nuggets falling to the seven-seed and the play-in tournament.

Injuries aside, what is this team’s realistic playoff ceiling?

Mares: Championship

Wind: Championship

Vogt: Championship

Superstar Dev: Western Conference Finals

Mares: The Nuggets had the potential to win the NBA championship last season but this feels like the first season that the Nuggets should realistically aim for such a lofty goal on day one.  There are more popular choices out there. The Lakers and Clippers have the big names and teams like the Jazz, Mavericks, and Suns should ensure that there are no easy roads to the Larry O.B.

But Denver proved last year that they are a lot closer to the top than most people realized heading into the season. This year, Gary Harris looks healthier than he has in either of the last two seasons. Monte Morris is 25 years old, right at the age that you’d expect a player to start entering his prime. Will Barton is back. And Michael Porter Jr. remains the team’s ultimate booster, capable of propelling them to new heights.

But most of all, the team’s cornerstone players have been forged in the fire of four Game 7’s and two deep playoff runs, each game making them stronger. They have 33 playoff games under their belt. It takes most players 5-plus years to rack up that much playoff experience. And both guys have played their best in the biggest moments.

This season, Nikola Jokić has that look in his eye. He’s in the best shape of his career and finally embracing a leadership role for the first time. The game has slowed down for Jamal Murray. Two 50-point games in one series is enough to provide an entire mountain range worth of confidence. Individually they are both brilliant. Together, they are nearly unstoppable.

For five seasons in a row, this Nuggets team has only gotten better while their detractors have consistently bet on them to plateau. Maybe we should stop making excuses for why they got lucky here or over-achieved there. Maybe they really are one of the best teams in the NBA, and getting better every day. Maybe by the time the playoffs roll around, we’ll see them enter a new tier. Maybe we’re overthinking this.

Injuries aside, what is this team’s realistic playoff floor?

Mares: First-round exit

Wind: First-round exit

Vogt: Second-round exit

Superstar Dev: First-round exit

Wind: Yes, there’s a scenario where the Nuggets romp through the West, capture a top-4 seed and lose in the first round. The conference is that good. Dallas, Utah, Phoenix, Portland could all be potential first-round opponents. While the Nuggets would be favorites in all of those series, those teams could all test Denver’s strengths and weaknesses.

But the Nuggets shouldn’t and won’t be scared of any playoff opponent. They outlasted Donovan Mitchell when he was playing the best basketball of his career in the bubble. They beat the championship favorites in the Clippers. If Anthony Davis’ buzzer-beating three doesn’t go down in Game 2, who knows how the Western Conference Finals turn out. Denver will go into every series with an incredible amount of self-belief, as they should.

How many games will the Nuggets win?

Mares: 50

Wind: 52 (and the No. 1 seed)

Vogt: 50

Superstar Dev: 46

Vogt: Fifty wins would essentially tie the team record (NBA only) for W/L %. Clearing that mark is on the table for these Nuggets, but that’s if everything runs smoothly. With new faces in town and some key rotation decisions lingering, this ride could include some bumpy roads. In the end, I think the aggregate talent is enough to prevail, and they’ll win some number around this mark.

How far will the Nuggets go in the playoffs?

Mares: NBA Finals

Wind: Western Conference Finals

Vogt: Western Conference Finals

Superstar Dev: Conference Semifinals

Wind: As currently constructed, it will take a first-rate performance to get past the Lakers in a seven-game series. But against every other potential playoff opponent, I’m picking Denver.

Here’s the Nuggets’ best path to the Finals: get the one seed and hope the Lakers and Clippers meet in the 2-3 Western Conference semifinal before Denver takes on the winner in the WCF. If it’s the Lakers again, how do the Nuggets stop the LeBron James-Anthony Davis two-pronged attack? It’s not like Denver added a defender this offseason who’s projected to make a substantial impact in that matchup. The Nuggets could be aggressive in adding a defensive-minded difference-maker prior to the trade deadline.

Then again, looking back at last year’s WCF it’s not like the Lakers ran up the score. Defense wasn’t the Nuggets’ biggest issue against the Lakers. It was offense. The Lakers tallied over 100 points in all five games but only went over the 110-point mark in Games 1 and 3. Maybe outscoring the Lakers is the Nuggets’ optimal path to the Finals. Gary Harris and Will Barton look healthy. Facu Campazzo and Monte Morris played off each other well in the preseason. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. will both require substantial amounts of defensive attention, especially when playing alongside Nikola Jokić. The Nuggets have the roster to score with any team in the league this year, including the Lakers.

What’s more likely to happen? Jokic wins MVP, Jamal Murray is named an All-Star or Michael Porter Jr. wins Most Improved Player?

Mares: Nikola Jokić wins MVP

Wind: Michael Porter Jr. wins MIP

Vogt: Nikola Jokić wins MVP

Superstar Dev: Jamal Murray is named an All-Star

Wind: He may not open the season in the starting lineup, but that doesn’t mean Porter’s not playing 30-plus minutes per game by mid-January. It’s also hard for me to envision him not breaking into the starting lineup at some point. I mean, this guy did have back-to-back 30-point games in the Seeding Round and then five 15+ point scoring outings in the playoffs as a rookie including a 28-point eruption in a Game 2 loss vs. Utah.

Porter’s going to have multiple month-long stretches where he goes berserk. By the end of the regular season, Porter could regain his status as the team’s third-most important player like he was prior to the playoffs.

Which players currently on the roster will be in Denver’s playoff rotation?

(Last year’s playoff rotation: Jokić, Murray, Grant, Harris, Millsap, Porter, Morris, Craig, Plumlee, Dozier)

Mares: Jokic, Murray, Barton, Millsap, Morris, Porter, Harris, Green, Hartenstein, Campazzo

Wind: Jokić, Murray, Barton, Porter, Dozier, Green, Millsap, Morris, Hartenstein

Vogt: Jokić, Murray, Barton, Porter, Millsap, Morris, Campazzo, Green, Hartenstein

Superstar Dev: Jokić, Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap, Porter, Morris, Hartenstein, Green

Mares: This is an impossible question to answer even before you factor in the likelihood of a trade. I don’t see minutes for all of Green, Hartenstein, and Millsap in a playoff rotation so does that mean Green is the odd man out? I don’t see Harris, Dozier, and Campazzo all in the roster but guessing which guy falls out is impossible at this stage. It’ll be Jokić, Murray, and whoever fits best with Jokić and Murray. Hopefully that list includes Michael Porter Jr.

What’s your one big question about this team that you hope will be answered this season?

Mares: Does Jokic have another level he can reach?

Wind: Can Jokić/Murray/Porter coexist in the same lineup AND bring the best out of one another?

Vogt: Is Porter Jr. ready/healthy/who we say he is?

Superstar Dev: Can Jamal Murray play as great during the regular season as he did in the bubble?

Vogt: We all know Denver needs a third star, and whether MPJ can fill those shoes will affect the trajectory of this organization going forward. If he can? Welcome to the Golden Era. If he can’t? What’s the move that gets them there? It’s time to find out who is right about Porter and where the Nuggets go from there.