2019-20 DNVR Nuggets Season Preview

For some, the summer went by in the blink of an eye. For others, this day could not have come soon enough. The NBA season is here, whether you’re ready for it or not, and the DNVR Nuggets staff has put together a comprehensive preview to help you catch up on the most relevant narratives and pertinent questions surrounding your Denver Nuggets.

Adam Mares, Harrison Wind, Mike Olson, and Brendan Vogt offer their Nuggets predictions, league-wide predictions, and provide the most important question surrounding each player on the roster.

What teams present the most and least of a threat in a Western Conference playoff series? Will Denver reach the Finals or lose in the first round? Will the Nuggets take home any awards?

The 2019-20 DNVR Nuggets preview is here.

Denver Nuggets Predictions

Who will lead the team in scoring?

Vogt: Murray  | Mares: Murray | Wind: Jokić | Olson: Harris

Vogt: With each season in the NBA, Jamal Murray moves closer to fulfilling his destiny—becoming a 20-point per game scorer. Alongside the ultimate confluence of skill and generosity in Nikola Jokić, Murray has increased his scoring output in each campaign, showing a developing understanding of Jokić’s gravity and subsequently how to exploit it. Jokić can score 20-plus in his sleep, but when he’s awake, he doesn’t always seem keen on doing so. If Murray elevates his baseline and evolves into a more consistent scorer, then 21, 22 points a game is well within reach—with Denver’s best player deferring happily.

Who will be the second most important player on the team?

Vogt: Murray  | Mares: Murray | Wind: Murray | Olson: Harris

Mares: Our good friend, Matt Moore of The Action Network likes to talk about players who elevate a team’s ceiling and players who elevate a team’s floor. It’s not a perfect way of analyzing teams but it holds especially true with the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokić elevates the team’s floor and as long as he is healthy, the Nuggets will be one of the best teams in the Western Conference. But Jamal Murray elevates their ceiling. When he looks like an all-star, the Nuggets are title contenders. If Murray is going to live up to his $170 million contract, he’ll need to start looking like the latter a lot more. If the final 11.25 games of the playoffs were any indication of what we should expect this season, then Murray is ready to be a worthy sidekick on a team with championship aspirations.

Who is the team’s biggest x-factor?

Vogt: Porter Jr.  | Mares: Barton | Wind: Porter Jr. | Olson: Porter Jr.

Wind: There are two contenders for this superlative in my opinion: Michael Porter Jr. and Jerami Grant. Grant will go down as one of if not the most underrated addition of the summer and will draw some consideration for the league’s Sixth Man of the Year award. But Porter, in true x-factor form, comes with more mystery and a greater range of value. By season’s end he could be the starting small forward, totally changing the dynamic of this Nuggets team from what it is right now. He also packs a scoring instinct and skill-set that Denver didn’t have on the wing last year. Porter is a special, special talent. It’s scary to think how good he can be by season’s end.

Who will start at small forward by the end of season?

Vogt: Porter Jr. | Mares: Porter Jr. | Wind: Barton | Olson: Porter Jr.

Olson: It may just be my wishful thinking, but watching Michael Porter Jr. play his first meaningful basketball in a couple years (and even arguably since high school) and fit into the scheme and schema so seamlessly had me a little twitterpated all preseason long. While it’s doubtful he’s much of a part of the early season rotation, MPJ was arguably the most consistent player the Nuggets saw at the three over four preseason games. Once he’s cracked the door open, and barring any setbacks or slumps, Porter has the skills right now to outshine anyone else competing for the slot.

Injuries aside, what is this team’s best realistic regular season win total?

Vogt: 60 | Mares: 63 | Wind: 62 | Olson: 60 

Mares: I can’t help but think back to 2014 when the young and fun but definitely not-to-be-taken-seriously Golden State Warriors were completely off of everyone’s radar. They were coming off of a season in which they won 51 games and played a style of basketball that the more traditional-minded analysts weren’t sold on. Even the most bearish Warriors fans thought that their team was a year away from truly contending. Sound familiar? 67 wins later and, well…you know the story.

It’s almost a certainty that the Nuggets won’t break out quite as perfectly as the Warriors did, but their true ceiling might not be that far off. Like the 2014 Warriors, last year’s Nuggets gave you glimpses of a team that was always approaching a completely unique form of basketball perfection but never fully arriving. If they arrive ahead of schedule, 63 wins isn’t out of the question.

Injuries aside, what is this team’s worst realistic regular season win total?

Vogt: 48  | Mares: 45 | Wind: 48| Olson: 45

Vogt: It’s really hard to see this team failing to win 48 or more games should they all stay healthy. The Nuggets spoke of championship aspirations all throughout training camp, and while being consistently great is still a work in progress, it’s easy now for them to be good. They won a handful of games by accident last year, and they’re objectively more talented top-to-bottom as they launch the 2019-20 campaign. The West got better, but so did Denver.

Injuries aside, what is this team’s realistic playoff ceiling?

Vogt: Championship | Mares:Championship | Wind: Championship | Olson: Championship

Wind: I’m as measured with my Nuggets takes as they come, particularly when declaring their floor and ceiling each season, so I don’t say it lightly when putting the Nuggets’ in the Larry O-B discussion. Denver has the top-end talent (Jokić, Murray), who now have a playoff run under their belts, the bench (Morris, Beasley, Grant), and x-factors (Porter, Barton) to be right there with the Clippers, Lakers, Rockets, Bucks, 76ers in the championship discussion. The special part for Nuggets fans is they’re set up to be in this tier for the foreseeable future with how they’ve managed their books and locked up their franchise pieces.

Injuries aside, what is this team’s realistic playoff floor?

Vogt: First-round exit  | Mares: First-round sweep | Wind: First-round exit | Olson: First-round exit

Mares: The 2019 Denver Nuggets were unbalanced. No game exemplified that more than their March 26th win over the Detroit Pistons in which they held a 27-point halftime lead only to see the Pistons cut it to one with 10 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter. The Nuggets’ strengths were as imposing as the league’s best teams but their weaknesses made them as vulnerable as the league’s worst. The same is likely true of this year’s Nuggets. Murray and Jokić will probably still struggle against teams who can spread them out and place Murray and Jokić into the pick-and-roll. Half of the West’s powerhouses play that exact style of basketball, most of them have future hall of famers at the helm. A first-round exit is a real risk for this team. Find the wrong match-up, and a first-round sweep might even be on the table.

How many games will the Nuggets win?

Vogt: 55  | Mares: 55 | Wind: 57 | Olson: 56

Wind: The Nuggets won 54 games last year but there’s a lot of room for improvement. For most of the season, Denver led the league in most games missed due to injury and the Nuggets never got to see what their opening night starting five — Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap, Jokić — looked like at full strength. They return all their key pieces from last season, add Grant and Porter, two players who I project as absolute difference makers this season, and will also get internal progression from lots of rotation players. The West is still a minefield, but Denver has shown it can successfully navigate it before.

How far will the Nuggets go in the playoffs?

Vogt: Second Round | Mares: Second Round | Wind: Conference Finals | Olson: Finals

Olson: I think you might really like this answer… but not love this answer. I believe this is finally the season these Denver Nuggets make the Finals. Should that be the case, it will be one of the franchise’s crowning achievements against a Western Conference that reads like a Murderer’s Row. That said, and in true Rocky Balboa/NuggLife fashion, I think Denver makes it all the way to the top of those stairs only to lose to… well, you’ll see that below…

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Roster Rundown

Jamal Murray – Can he elevate his baseline?

Vogt: All eyes will be on Jamal Murray this season as he begins his quest to earn every penny of his 5-year, $180 million extension. Our last memory of Jamal is his volatile 7-game series in Portland, in which he oscillated between showing his age and showing up an exhausted Damian Lillard on his home court. The peaks of those swings featured a near-elite scoring guard who was benefiting from the gravity of his first-team All-NBA center. Can Murray raise his baseline closer to those peaks? Consistency, or a lack thereof, will define the Blue Arrow’s season.

Gary Harris – Can he stay healthy?

Olson: Admitting my biases, Gary appears to be primed for a bounce-back season from last year’s injury-riddled campaign. He appears to be in exceptional shape coming into the regular season, his shot looks back to its old form, and there is decidedly a bounce in his step. Moreover, Harris must be aware that the “oft-injured” tag is decidedly close to sticking with him, and he’ll probably go to great lengths to disprove it. Let’s hope that plays out well, as a full-strength Garris is one of Denver’s greatest semi-secret weapons.

Will Barton  – Can Will Barton evolve?

Mares: One of the most interesting paradoxes that seem to recur across all sports is that the very confidence that helps a person develop into one of the world’s best athletes can also be the thing that prevents that player from adjusting into a more useful role. Will Barton is faced with this paradox as he approaches what is likely the halfway point of his career. Approaching 29 years old and on a team loaded with scorers, Barton is tasked with evolving away from the player that got him a $48 million contract a summer ago and into the player that will keep him in the starting lineup and contributing throughout the season. The Nuggets need his passing (a career-high 4.1 assists per game back in 2018) and efficiency (a career-high 56% true-shooting that same year) a lot more than his scoring. Can Barton channel that part of his game? If so, the Nuggets will have a starting lineup that will compete for the best offensive five-man lineup in basketball. If not, he might find himself in another city by the trade deadline or buried on the bench like he was in last year’s playoffs.

Paul Millsap – Can he maintain his three-point shooting?

Wind: No player’s efforts went more under-appreciated than Millsap’s last season. He quietly led the Nuggets to a top-10 defense, something that looked unattainable at times the year before, and was one of Denver’s most consistent options on the offensive end of the floor. At 34-years-old Millsap is on the downside of an impressive career but showed last season that he still has at least a few really impactful seasons left. Millsap shot 36.5% from 3 last year — his highest mark since 2010-11 — and if he can finish at a similar mark this year, it gives the Nuggets just that much more offensive firepower. 

Nikola Jokić – Will his level of engagement waver?

Vogt: Those who watched Jokić’s 14-game playoff run closely know there are few questions left to answer. He wasn’t exposed, he was put under a spotlight, and he shined in a way few players have in a playoff debut. What stands in the way between Jokić and a legitimate seat at the ‘MVP’ table is how badly he wants it. After an extended run, and a long summer of basketball, he might not care to prove much over the course of 82 games. We also know his mercurial temperament has been an issue in the past. Denver’s regular season nadir last season came when Jokić was, to be frank, pouting for the better part of a month. Will he subscribe to the ‘championship mentality’ his coach has articulated? Can he lead by example?

Monte Morris – Can he improve on last year’s postseason run?

Vogt: Monte Morris was a revelation in the regular season last year, turning an anchor of a bench into a weapon. He exceeded our wildest expectations and smashed even the most optimistic projections for his first full season of professional basketball—but he struggled mightily in the playoffs. Denver’s most consisent player couldn’t hit a shot, and Denver’s lauded depth failed them when it mattered most. Something tells me those 14 games don’t reflect what Morris has to offer in high-leverage games, but he must prove that now.

Malik Beasley – Will his looming Restricted Free Agency impact his season?

Olson: Malik blew the lid off of the Pepsi Center and all of our expectations last season, including cracking the 40% club from distance. Malik also brought some pressure to bear coming into this year, having reportedly declined a 3 year, $30 million dollar offer from the Nuggets. Beasley coming into a contract year could be a house of fire for Denver in a season they could use those efforts. Let’s hope he gives Denver some difficult decisions to make by year’s end.

Torrey Craig – Is his improved 3-point shooting for real?

Wind: The Nuggets love Craig’s defensive effort and hard-nosed play, but his struggles from 3-point range capped how big of an impact he could make a year ago. But last season, Craig shot 40.8% from 3 post-All Star break and there’s been talk throughout Denver’s preseason that Craig’s jumper looks improved after a long summer spent in the gym. If Craig carries a 40% mark from 3 throughout most of this season there’s no doubt that he’ll earn more playing time.

Jerami Grant – Is he for real?

Mares: There are several indicators that point toward Grant being a perfect fit alongside Nikola Jokić. He’s extremely athletic, a key ingredient for covering up some of Jokić’s physical shortcomings. He’s a low-usage role player who doesn’t mind spacing the floor and playing off ball. He had a higher three-point percentage than Jokić, Murray, and Harris last season and he blocked more shots than any forward in the league. But all of those stats are one-year trends. The season before last he shot the ball about as well as Trey Lyles. Catch-all metrics like Box Plus-Minus paint him as a slightly above average defender. So is Grant smoke and mirrors? Probably not. But until we actually see him in Skyline Blue and Sunshine Yellow (actual team color names), then we at least have to ask.

Mason Plumlee – Will he play any minutes at power forward?

Mares: Last season, the Jokić-Plumlee lineup underwent one of the most miraculous transformations in recent NBA history. Once a clunky relic of a time long passed when two seven-footers was the norm, the Jokić-Plumlee lineup paired two slow, skilled, and incredibly smart seven-footers alongside each other in what became a sort of antidote to smallball. But with Jerami Grant added to the roster to fill in behind Paul Millsap, there isn’t a need for those twin tower lineups. So does that leave Plumlee relegated to only playing the center position? And what about Denver trying out smallball lineups featuring Grant at center? There’s a chance that Plumlee will play out a contract year as a traditional backup center, playing just 10-15 minutes per game.

Jarred Vanderbilt – What can he glean from his fellow forwards?

Olson: JV will have a tough time cracking varsity much this season, with the shiny new addition of Jerami Grant further stacking up the power forward spot. That said, Vanderbilt might do well to shadow Grant’s footsteps as much as possible, as the other gentlemen ahead of him in the slot won’t be there forever. Let’s hope Jarred sees a ton of scrub time this season due to several Nuggets blowout wins.

Bol Bol – Can he follow in the footsteps of Porter Jr., Morris, and Craig?

Mares: I highly doubt it will feel this way when he is riding a worn-out bus through rural South Dakota en route from one empty stadium to another in the NBA G-League but Bol Bol really wound up in the perfect situation. Coming off of a fairly serious foot injury and pegged with a reputation for being immature and unmotivated, Bol Bol now finds himself on a team full of players who have been cast off and counted out the same way that he was at the 2019 NBA draft. Torrey Craig went from undrafted to the Australian NBL league to the G-League to starting in a playoff series. Monte Morris went from the 2nd round, to the G-League to one of the league’s best backup guards. And MPJ, well he spent two whole years waiting for this moment. Bol has a chance to follow in their footsteps. But while his path might look the same, his journey will be unique. If he embraces it the way so many players on the roster already have, then he just might end up being an important piece of this team’s future.

Michael Porter Jr. – When does he crack the rotation?

Wind: Despite an impressive preseason, Porter could be on the outside looking in of the Nuggets’ rotation to start the regular season. Part of that is life as a rookie who’s joining a 54-win team. The other is that the Nuggets have options at small forward in Will Barton and Torrey Craig that they feel somewhat comfortable with. The feeling you get with Porter is that once he gets his chance he could run with it, but just how long will it take for an opportunity to arrive? It’s going to be difficult keeping the tantalizing rookie with a game that seems to be improving with every minute he plays out of the mix for long. 

Vlatko Čančar – Can he keep his head above water?

Vogt: Čančar won’t move the needle in either direction for Denver this season, but he has to keep pace now as he makes the leap to the most competitive basketball league in the world. Few players are more modest and self-aware than Čančar, who once described his game as “simple and efficient” when solicited. He’s aiming for the backend of a rotation, and that awareness may be the key to him carving out a home in the NBA. Čančar is still young, and in a new country now, his plate is full in the acclimation department. Can he keep his head above water and come into next year’s camp with momentum?

P.J. Dozier – Is he an NBA player?

Wind: The Nuggets brought Dozier to training camp for a number of reasons, but a central one was that at 6-foot-6, the South Carolina product brings a unique amount of size to the point guard position. He’ll have to prove he can shoot the ball, and he’ll get plenty of opportunity to do so in the G League on a two-way contract for Denver this season, but Dozier’s length makes him an intriguing prospect. 

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NBA Predictions

MVP

Vogt: LeBron James | Mares: Anthony Davis | Wind: Giannis Antetokounmpo| Olson: Kawhi Leonard

Wind: Picking Giannis to repeat is the boring play, but he’s rightfully the favorite heading into the season. Off in the East he’ll post 30-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist stat lines while no one’s watching and lead the Bucks to a top-2 seed in the conference without breaking much of a sweat. Oh yeah, he’s also arguably the best defensive player in the league. Everyone loves Giannis. No voter fatigue here. 

ROY

Vogt: Ja Morant  | Mares: Zion | Wind: Zion | Olson: Zion

Mares: This pick felt a lot better two days ago, before it was announced that Zion would require surgery to repair a torn meniscus. The timetable for return is 6-8 weeks and that means Zion is slated to miss about 15-20 games, the maximum amount that a player could realistically expect to miss and still be in the conversation for an end of season award. But the thing is, Zion is a generational talent, blessed with the most unique combination of speed and size that the league has ever seen. That’s not hyperbole. He jumps as high as Vince Carter but weighs almost as much as Nikola Jokić. 50 games of Zion would trump 150 games of just about every other rookie in this draft class. So if Zion can stay healthy once he returns to the Pelicans, then this award will be his for the taking.

Most Over Rated Team

Vogt: Bucks  | Mares: Pelicans | Wind: Lakers | Olson: Warriors

Olson: It’s easy and fashionable to pile on to the Warriors this offseason, with Kevin Durant rehabbing on the far coast and Klay Thompson now possibly out for the season. With two All-Timers still starting for them, it’s easy to see why most pundits are picking Golden State to be able to stay somewhere in the 4-7 brackets this postseason. But with the island of mismatched toys suddenly surrounding them, it seems possible these proud Warriors will not only miss their first Finals in five seasons, but possibly even their first playoffs in the last seven.

Most Under Rated Team

Vogt: Lakers | Mares: Lakers | Wind: Thunder | Olson: Jazz

Mares: Sometimes basketball is about subtlety and nuance and how the hundreds of little details add up to provide tiny margins of an advantage. Sometimes basketball is about just having one or two guys who are better than everyone else. The Lakers fall into that second category. Their roster after the big two of LeBron James and Anthony Davis is pretty laughable. They don’t have enough length on the wing or defensive specialists or even actual NBA caliber players to fill out an entire roster. But they two have two of the best players of this generation who so happen to compliment each other almost perfectly. They are rated very high so it is hard for them to be under rated but few analysts actually are picking them to win the title. If they get to April with their two stars healthy, I just don’t see who is going to stop them.

Eastern Conference Champions

Vogt: 76ers  | Mares: Bucks | Wind: Bucks| Olson: Bucks

Olson: That feeling Denver Nuggets fans had coming into last season about missing the playoffs? That’s the feeling Milwaukee fans have about missing last season’s Finals. This team is coming back loaded and pissed. If the Bucks have not been on your League Pass favorites these last few years, it is time. I have a feeling they’ll lay waste in the East this year.

Western Conference Champions

Vogt: Lakers  | Mares: Lakers | Wind: Clippers | Olson: Nuggets

Vogt: The Los Angeles Lakers don’t have much depth. In fact, beyond their two all-stars, they don’t have much talent either. The truth is, if either Anthony Davis or LeBron James gets hurt, then their title hopes are all but gone. But that’s the case for just about every team this season. If the Rockets lose Harden? They’re screwed. The Nuggets without Jokić? Forget it. The Warriors without Steph? Three examples is enough. Best players matter most and no team has two better players than the Lakers. If they’re healthy, they are winning the West.

NBA Champions

Vogt: Lakers  | Mares: Lakers | Wind: Clippers | Olson: Bucks

Vogt: LeBron James was injured last year. Perhaps that’s the first sign of his inevitable decline, Father Time is undefeated after all, but that is the beginning and the end of the Lakers’ woes. LeBron James was injured, and if he was healthy, he would have reminded the world that he’s still the King. He does it every spring. We do this every year. We find a way to doubt him, and then he reminds us–there is no better player in the world for seven games than LeBron. And he’s never had a better confluence of talent and fit alongside him than prime Anthony Davis. Eventually, time will catch up to him. Eventually, I will bleed out on the LeBron James hill. But I’ll feel good about. It’s the best hill in sports.