2018-19 Season Preview: Can the Nuggets' bench be better?

There was an all too familiar rhythm to Denver Nuggets games over the last two seasons. The Nuggets were difficult to stop with Nikola Jokic on the floor. If they didn’t build a lead with their Serbian center at the controls, they at least stayed competitive. But when Jokic went to get a breather, any progress they made stalled. Too often, they fell to pieces.

Take the 2017-18 regular-season finale against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Denver outscored Minnesota by seven points in the 46 minutes Jokic played; in the seven minutes he sat of the overtime thriller, Minnesota outscored Denver by 13 points. The game underscored one of the biggest issues that kept the Nuggets from getting into the postseason: They got overwhelmed when head coach Michael Malone went to his bench.

Opponents outscored the Nuggets by 4.3 points per 100 possessions any time one of their reserves was on the floor. That was the seventh-worst mark in basketball. 

The Nuggets took steps to address those issues in July by signing Isaiah Thomas to a one-year deal. Thomas, a bucket-getting mighty mite, is looking to return to form after a nightmarish 2017-18 season that included two trades and persistent right hip issues. Together, Thomas, Trey Lyles and Mason Plumlee form the backbone of a reserve unit that has enough talent to keep Denver competitive when its starters get a break.  

If the Nuggets can do a better job of holding serve when Jokic goes to the bench, it will go a long way toward snapping a five-season playoff drought.

IT-Plumlee pick and roll: a path to manufacturing offense? 

There’s no way around it: Emmanuel Mudiay was an anchor who dragged the Nuggets down last season. Mudiay shot too much, passed too little, couldn’t protect the basketball and looked lost on defense. Opponents outscored Denver by a staggering 8.6 points per 100 possessions when Mudiay played. Mudiay was sent to the New York Knicks at the trade deadline and finished the season 520th out of 521 players in ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus metric. 

Having competency at the backup point guard spot from day one in 2018-19 should provide a boost. Thomas is only one season removed from averaging 28.9 points per game on a 62.5 True Shooting percentage. When healthy, he’s proven he can be an elite isolation and pick-and-roll player. Thomas averaged 1.04 points per possession as the primary ball handler in pick-and-roll situations in 2016-17 (94th percentile league-wide).

Don’t be surprised if a Thomas-Plumlee pick-and-roll combination becomes a staple of the Nuggets’ offense when Jokic sits. Thomas can hit the three if his man goes under the screen, knock down mid-range shots if the defense sags and roast bigs off the dribble. Plumlee is an excellent screener who does a nice job of flushing lobs.

Add in Lyles, who canned 40.6 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season, and Denver could have a formula for success.

Manufacturing offense when Jokic rests has been a struggle at times over the last two seasons. If healthy, Thomas is more than capable of creating during those times — especially with pieces like Plumlee and Lyles surrounding him.

Craig, Juancho and Beasley: jockeying for minutes on the wing

While the picture at backup point guard, power forward and center is clear, things get murky when it comes to which players will relieve Gary Harris and Will Barton on the wings. Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernanogmez and Torrey Craig are the candidates. Beasley and Hernangomez, both former first-round picks in 2016, watched as Craig, an undrafted journeyman on a two-way contract, supplanted them in the rotation as last season wore on.

Craig, who signed a two-year deal with Denver this offseason, busted his way into the rotation by playing his tenacious, hard-nosed brand of basketball. Craig averaged 1.0 offensive rebounds per game in 16.1 minutes of floor time. There’s a case to be made he was Denver’s best perimeter defender depending on how you feel about Harris.

The ways in which he contributes will be needed on a Nuggets team that will likely once again struggle defensively.

Beasley showed flashes of being a plus defender last season. He’s an excellent athlete, has good size for a shooting guard (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) and is still just 21 years old. Beasley flies around when he’s out there. The key for him is to play with enough control to earn Malone’s trust.

Hernangomez is the farthest along offensively among this trio by a significant margin. Defenses have to respect his three-point shot. Hernangomez also has an excellent understanding of how to operate in Denver’s free-flowing attack. The ball never seems to stick in his hands for very long. His biggest issue is keeping up defensively. Guarding opposing small forwards can be tricky. At 6-foot-9, he’s probably better off defending power forwards, but the problem is there doesn’t appear to be any room for him there with Paul Millsap and Lyles ahead in the pecking order.

There aren’t enough minutes for Craig, Beasley and Hernangomez to play every night. At least one of them is going to have to sit assuming the Nuggets are healthy. Fourteenth overall pick Michael Porter Jr. could also provide some competition if he plays this season. Porter’s camp has indicated the sweet-shooting forward could be ready for the start of the season after he had a second back surgery in July. The Nuggets have still not provided a timetable for his return.

Closing the gap

The gulf between the level Denver’s starters and bench operated at last season was among the widest in basketball. Some letdown is to be expected when some combination of Jokic, Harris, Millsap and Murray goes to the bench. But too many times, the bottom fell out.

The Nuggets don’t need their reserves to consistently add to leads if they want to go to the playoffs. They just need their reserves not to lose them.

Thomas should be motivated after a tough 2017-18. He’s playing for a payday next summer as is Lyles, who will be a restricted free agent after this season unless Denver extends him before Oct. 9. On paper, those two and Plumlee form a solid bench core. Soon, we’ll see how well on paper translates.