2018-19 Nuggets Predictions: Win totals, potential All-Stars, who will lead Denver in scoring and more

Welcome to the 2018-19 NBA season.

The Nuggets open their schedule Wednesday night in Los Angeles against the Clippers. It could be a franchise-altering year for the Nuggets, and BSN Denver will be with you every step of the way, providing detailed reporting, analysis, and commentary on the team throughout the season.

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Will the Nuggets have an All-Star this season for the first time since Carmelo Anthony? How much of an improvement will Denver make on defense? How many wins will the Nuggets finish with?

Here are Harrison Wind and Christian Clark’s bold predictions for this season.

This Nuggets roster is loaded with offensive firepower. Last year, five players averaged between 14 and 19 points per game. Gary Harris led the team in scoring for most of the year before Nikola Jokic overtook him in the final month. Who will be the Nuggets’ scoring leader in 2018-19?

Wind: Nikola Jokic. No one in the NBA scores more effortlessly than Jokic. Look at Twitter or check your phone for a few minutes during the first quarter and before you know it, Jokic will have 10 points on 4-5 shooting. The funny thing about Jokic’s offensive prowess and efficiency is he doesn’t even prefer to score. He prefers to pass. But over the final month of last season, Jokic finally accepted a role as Denver’s No. 1 option averaged 24.0 points on 53.8 percent shooting from the field and 47.6 percent from three. That’s the type of offensive player he’ll be this year. Surrounded by more scoring and playmaking in the Nuggets’ starting lineup than ever before, this could be the season that we look back at in 10 years as his most impressive. 

Clark: I’ll take the guy NBA GMs think is going to win Most Improved Player: Jamal Murray. I think we’re going to see a more daring Murray, who’s not shy about launching 3s off the bounce. He was already an elite stand-still shooter last season. The next step for him is to start taking the 3s Steph Curry and Damian Lillard are known for, which stretch defenses out. Murray had a full summer to work on his game for the first time in his career (he was recovering from a double sports hernia in 2017). I think we’re going to see another leap from him.

It’s no secret the Nuggets have struggled defensively the last few seasons. Under Michael Malone, they’ve finished 25th, 29th and 23rd in defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). How do you see Denver faring on that end of the floor?

Wind: If the Nuggets gave up one less basket per game last season, their defense would have been considered league average, and this year and I’m predicting they finish in the top-20 in defensive efficiency. Why? A healthy Paul Millsap. He’s struggled on the offensive end of the floor since signing with Denver last summer, but he’s been every bit as advertised on defense. Millsap can cover for his teammate’s mistakes and is an elite help side defender. He’s also not afraid to put his body on the line and take a charge, dive on the floor for a 50-50 ball or check any defender in the post, no matter how big. Denver will get better defensive performances this season from its young backcourt of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris, and Jokic is an underrated defender who will begin to silence some of his doubters who rail against his lack of quickness this season. But most of all it’s Millsap who will turn Denver into a respectable defense. In the 414 minutes Jokic, Harris, Murray and Millsap logged together last season the Nuggets allowed 102.5 points per 100 possessions. That mark was the equivalent of a top-five defense.

Clark: I was pessimistic they could improve once they resigned Will Barton to step in at starting small forward. Many nights, Barton will give up 20 pounds and 3 inches to the player he’s checking. Think about some of the starting small forwards in Denver’s division: Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Joe Ingles. The Nuggets need Barton to play bigger than he is, and that worries me. Still, I’m warming up to the idea that Denver will be better. A healthy Paul Millsap makes a world of a difference. His three-block first quarter in the preseason against the Clippers gave us a glimpse of his ability to erase teammates’ mistakes. I also think the sting of narrowly missing the playoffs in consecutive years will inspire some of the younger players to give a more consistent, focused effort game in and game out. The Nuggets know they can’t afford to blow games to bad teams. I don’t see why they can’t finish 20th in defensive rating.

Isaiah Thomas was signed to be this team’s backup point guard, but Thomas is still on the mend from hip surgery and appears to be a ways away from playing. In the preseason, Monte Morris stepped up and expertly ran Denver’s second unit. Which player do you think will make more of an impact this season?

Wind: Thomas will be more impactful, and that’s not a knock on Morris by any means. Morris will run his second unit effectively to begin the season and will be a solid option off Denver’s bench. He has the trust of his teammates and the Nuggets’ coaching staff and will be called upon for important rotation minutes to begin the season. Morris will be solid, but Thomas can raise Denver’s ceiling to another level. He’s a playoff-tested veteran who can take and make big-time shots in high-leverage situations. He’ll be a fourth-quarter and crunch-time contributor if he gets healthy. Thomas will also make more of an impact this season for his leadership off the court. The Nuggets are a quiet team, but Thomas is already raising the volume inside the Nuggets locker room.

Clark: The bench was the biggest surprise of the preseason. Mason Plumlee moved as well as he ever has in a Nuggets uniform. Trey Lyles knocked down outside shots, feasted on mismatches and flashed a new-found playmaking ability. Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez each had their moments. The glue that held everything together was Monte Morris. High school point guards should watch the way Morris navigates pick and rolls. Morris always seems to make the right play. I know Isaiah Thomas is only 16 months removed from finishing fifth in MVP voting, but I can’t help but think Morris is going to continue running with this opportunity. I couldn’t be more in on Morris.

The last time the Nuggets earned an All-Star selection, Kevin Love was on the Timberwolves, Deron Williams was on the Jazz and Yao Ming was in the league. Do you see anyone on Denver’s roster getting the All-Star nod for the first time since Carmelo Anthony did it back in 2011?

Wind: I’ve been on record throughout the entire offseason that Nikola Jokic will be an All-Star this season, and I’m not backing down from that claim. It will be tough in a stacked Western Conference, but if the Nuggets are in the thick of the playoff race when All-Star ballots are getting submitted he’ll get a fair shake. A 50-win Nuggets team that could contend for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs needs All-Star representation. Jokic is the obvious choice.

Clark: I’m with you. NBA media outside Denver is starting to realize how good Jokic is. Sports Illustrated ranked him 18th on its top 100 players list. ESPN put him 12th. Jokic will look comfortable from jump street this season. There’s a clearly defined pecking order, and the chemistry between him and the three guards in Denver’s starting lineup is Kevlar strong. Jokic is going to have a huge year.

The Nuggets will be a top-four seed in the Western Conference, Mason Plumlee predicted on his personal website earlier this month. How many games do you see Denver winning and what seed will it get in a Western Conference that’s somehow even tougher than it was a year ago?

Wind: 50 wins and the fourth seed, so I’m with Plumlee. I think Denver starts the season off 10-5 and immediately gets some national pub. The Nuggets will go through some ups and downs along the way, but this will be a franchise-altering season for Denver.

Clark: Put me down for 50 wins as well. I’ve got them fifth behind Golden State, Houston, Utah and Oklahoma City. Denver finishes the season second in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating.