2016 NHL First Round Mock Draft

The 2016 NHL Entry Draft is just under a month away, so today A.J. Haefele and Cole Hamilton take a look at how the first round might shake out.

1.Toronto Maple Leafs – Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (NLA)

2. Winnipeg Jets – Patrik Laine, RW, Tappara (Liiga)

3. Columbus Blue Jackets – Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Karpat (Liiga)

4. Edmonton Oilers – Matthew Tkachuk, RW, London Knights (OHL)

Cole: This is a difficult pick to assess, because it’s hard to escape the possibility of Edmonton trading the pick and shaking up the draft board to follow. If Chiarelli decides to keep the pick, he won’t squander it by addressing it by targeting the team’s defensive needs, but instead take the guy they view as the best player available. It’s close here, but scouts love big performances in big moments, so the recency of Matthew Tkachuk’s dominant Memorial Cup performance has significant weight here.

5. Vancouver Canucks – Pierre Luc Dubois, C/RW, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL)

AJ: Vancouver is pretty prospect poor so this is simply me going with the best player available method, something Jim Benning may or may not be aware of given his borderline insane tenure as Canucks GM. Given the postseason dominance of Tkachuk, it’s no longer a slam dunk in our eyes that Dubois is the clear-cut top North American skater on the board and I expect come draft day picks four and pick will be these two players in some order. If Dubois goes to Edmonton, Tkachuk lands in Vancouver.

6. Calgary Flames – Olli Juolevi, D, London (OHL)

Cole: The Flames have a strong defensive corps in Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, and T.J. Brodie and could really use some forward prospects, but they’ll have a chance to address those needs with their three picks in the second round. Brad Treliving opts instead to grab the smooth skating London defenseman who’s playoffs helped make a name for himself as the draft’s top defenseman.

7. Arizona Coyotes – Jakob Chychrun, D, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

AJ: I would bet my life savings (all $34) the Coyotes take a defenseman with this pick. With Juolevi gone, the Coyotes go next best defender with Chychrun. For Chychrun, this represents a slide of sorts as he spent the majority of the season as the consensus top defender in this year’s draft but a soft postseason and Juolevi being part of London’s amazing Memorial Cup run means the Coyotes are the real benefactor here.

8. Buffalo Sabres – Alexander Nylander, RW, Mississauga (OHL)

Cole: The Sabres are beginning to build an impressive group of young, talented forwards and add to that list with Alexander Nylander. Wing and defense are the Sabres’ two biggest points of need, so Sergachev would also make sense here, but Tim Murray’s well documented “difficulties” with young Russian players break the tie.

9. Montreal Canadiens – Mikhail Sergachev, D, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

AJ: Had Sergachev been gone, the pick would’ve been big Logan Brown but with the hulking blue liner available, the Canadiens couldn’t resist pulling the trigger. Sergachev is rocketing up boards and could realistically go even higher than this or even drop a little bit. This is the makeup call for the bust that was Jarred Tinordi. Sergachev is blessed with a grip of talent on both ends of the ice and could be ready to compete for NHL time sooner than almost anyone on this list.

10. Colorado Avalanche – Logan Brown, C, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

Cole: With the big three defensemen off the board, the Avalanche are left to address their massive prospect needs at the forward position. The choice for Colorado likely comes down to three centers: the small but explosive Clayton Keller, the gifted two-way pivot Tyson Jost, and the hulking playmaker Logan Brown. Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon will be a great 1-2 punch for a long time for the Avalanche, but they bring a lot of the same things to the table, and Keller would bring more of the same. In Brown the Avs hope to craft a more varied center depth chart forces opponents to constantly adjust

11. New Jersey Devils – German Rubtsov, C, Russia U-18 (MHL)

AJ: Going with a home run swing here but this is the same area of the draft Valeri Nichushkin and Denis Guryanov were drafted and Rubtsov is the next in the Russian line. He’s a 200-foot player who has an explosive upside and whose biggest downside is currently that he simply needs to mature a bit more and get more involved in the physical side of the game. The Devils need talent at forward in the worst way and Rubtsov combining with last year’s first rounder, Pavel Zacha, could give them a lethal two-headed monster down the middle in a few years. Should New Jersey choose to consolidate their talent, they would be the peanut butter and jelly combination the Devils have lacked since the departures of Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk.

12. Ottawa Senators – Clayton Keller, C, NDTP U18 (USHL)

Cole: The Senators have to overjoyed with their 1st round selection from the USHL last year, as Colin White dominated the NCAA to the tune of 43 points in 37 games. The Senators do have some nice young players on offense, but none who’ve taken the leap to become offensive difference makers. Erik Karlsson is exceptional no doubt, but he’s going to need a more dynamic offense for goal support if this team is going anywhere, and Clayton Keller is just the kind of explosive dynamo to address that problem.

13. Carolina Hurricanes – Michael McLeod, C, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)

AJ: The fleet-footed center will add to talented young Hurricanes group and be a player to watch for in the near future as the Hurricanes don’t have a clear center hierarchy blocking him with the stalled development of Elias Lindholm. McLeod is an elite skater with a very strong two-way game but legitimate question marks about his offensive upside are the only reason he wasn’t taken several selections higher. He’s the type of guy built to last in today’s faster-than-ever NHL.

14. Boston Bruins – Jake Bean, D, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)

Cole: After a decade of Zdeno Chara dominance in Boston, the Bruins are finally being forced into a changing of the guard on the blueline. Chara and Seidenberg are nearing the end, Boychuk and Hamilton are gone and Miller and McQuaid aren’t exactly top notch replacements. This process started when the Bruins took Jakub Zboril in the first round last year, and now the Bruins continue building their blueline with the dynamic, toolsy Jake Bean. There are some big risks with Bean defensively, but as one of the youngest players in the draft there’s plenty of room for growth.

15. Minnesota Wild – Tyson Jost, C, Penticton Vees (BCHL)

AJ: A guy whose postseason draft stock has so much helium he could reasonably go in the top 10 and nobody would make a huge fuss, Jost is one of the draft’s most interesting players. He’s a dynamic offensive center, something the Wild have never had, and could be the kind of electric talent they’ve only seen along the wing with the likes of Parise and Marian Gaborik in his youth. Jost is the answer to the Wild’s existential question: “Who’s next?”

16. Detroit Red Wings – Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston University (NCAA)

Cole: The Detroit Red Wings are now the 2nd oldest team in the NHL and in dire need of an influx of young talent. Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, and Dylan Larkin are helping to rejuvenate their forward group, but an aging, lackluster blueline with no real identity is holding them back. McAvoy is an electric, puck moving defenseman with maturity and hockey IQ beyond his years who put together a remarkable season with Boston University during a trial by fire season where he was asked to play big minutes. The Wings will hope that McAvoy will bring a defensive spark to the Red Wings system, and in time, their roster.

17. Nashville Predators – Max Jones, LW, London Knights (OHL)

AJ: A player with enormous upside and plenty of breakout potential with his star-studded teammates fleeing for professional hockey, Jones will be one of the leading faces of the next wave of great Knights forwards. He’s a physical, sometimes even dirty, player who possesses a whole lot of skill. He’s going to play on the next level but the question is will he be more Steve Downie or James Neal?

18. Philadelphia Flyers – Kieffer Bellows, C/LW, Sioux Falls Stampede (USHL)

Cole: It’s been a long time since the Broadstreet Bullies were winning Stanley Cups, but some things never change and there’s no doubt that Philadelphia still loves a heavy, hard-nosed forward. The Flyers’ system is chock full of defensive prospects, so Bellows is a great fit here for an organization looking to refresh its forward group on the fly.

19. New York Islanders – Julien Gauthier, RW, val-D’or Foreurs

AJ: If there’s ever a GM to throw caution to the wind and take a chance on a falling talent, it’s the guy who justified his selection of enigmatic Josh Ho-Sang by saying, on live television, “They shit on me, too.”

20. Arizona Coyotes (from New York Rangers) – Dante Fabbro, D, Penticton Vees (BCHL)

Cole: The Arizona Coyotes set out in this first round to build a group of defensive prospects as impressive as their collection of young forwards. Starting with Jacob Chychrun and now Dante Fabbro they’ve made enormous strides toward that goal. Fabbro boasts a steady, 200 foot game with no glaring weaknesses, and while he doesn’t have the game breaking potential that Chychrun has, he does boast an impressive floor and safely projects as a dependable NHLer. With Oliver Ekman Larsson already in the fold and now Chychrun and Fabbro, Arizona is building an enviable group on the blueline.

21. Carolina Hurricanes (from Los Angeles) – Alex Debrincat, RW, Erie Otters (OHL)

AJ: Tiny but mighty, Debrincat is the kind of luxury a team with multiple first rounders can afford. The Hurricanes need any and all talent at the forward spot and Debrincat brings plenty of that. The only reason he’s still available at this selection, however, is his 5’7” stature, which is small even for small guys. Consider the NHL’s greatest small star success stories right now are Tyler Johnson and Johnny Gaudreau, who are both 5’9”, and you see why the electric Debrincat faces an uphill battle to make it in pro hockey.

22. Winnipeg Jets (from Chicago) – Logan Stanley, D, Windsor Spitfires (WHL)

Cole: After winning the Patrik Laine lottery the Jets walk away from night one of the draft as winners no matter what. With that massive addition, a deep prospect pool, and quality youth at every position, the Jets can afford to swing for the fences a bit with their second pick in the first round. Stanley is a real project of a player, but standing 6’7” with a handful of quality tools, his payoff could be enormous if he reaches his potential.

23. Florida Panthers – Luke Kunin, C, University of Wisconsin (NCAA)

AJ: Simply following the best player available model, the Panthers end up with this Carl Hagelin clone. Kunin is a future winger who flies up and down the ice and possesses the kind of goal-scoring acumen that teams fall all over themselves to draft every summer. A standout on a bad team in a bad league, Kunin certainly looked out of place last year but as he continues to develop he will provide the Panthers with the kind of dangerous prospect that could make the team sooner than you expect most NCAA draft picks to.

24. Anaheim Ducks – Tage Thompson, C/RW, University of Connecticut (NCAA)

Cole: Late in the first round Tage Thompson just screams Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks have been one of the league’s most effective clubs at the NHL Entry Draft and they’ve built much of that success off of big heavy forwards like Tage Thompson. Devante Smith-Pelly, Richard Rakell, Nick Ritchie; the Ducks scouts make their living off guys like this and Tage Thompson makes great sense to be next in line.

25. Dallas Stars – Rasmus Asplund, C, Farjestad (SHL)

AJ: He isn’t flashy and he isn’t going to wow anybody with his individual skill level but he’s this year’s version of Joel Eriksson-Ek, the Swedish center drafted in the first round last year by the Minnesota Wild. Asplund is another in an enormous line of talented centers who excel in all three zones and is the prototypical two-way center. His offense may underwhelm for a first rounder but the Stars have spent years loading up on flashy offensive talents. It’s time to take the reliable, albeit unspectacular talent in Asplund.

26. Washington Capitals – Pascal Laberge, RW, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL)

Cole: The reigning President’s Trophy Winners have a strong roster top to bottom with very little turnover on the immediate horizon, so they have the luxury of approaching this pick as a pure, best player available selection. The Capitals then, select Pascal Laberge for his dynamic offensive game, deadly shot, and physical edge. The Capitals can afford to take their time and let Pascal Leberge bulk up and develop into another impact forward for their creative, high tempo offense.

27. Tampa Bay Lightning – Will Bitten, C, Flint Firebirds (OHL)

AJ: Given the season he just had and the adversity he faced with the ownership drama Flint dealt with this season, that Bitten is still in this conversation for the first round is nothing short of incredible. He’s an excellent young forward and, by all accounts, an even better young man who has captain potential in his future. On the ice, I can’t watch Will Bitten and see anything but a young Andrew Cogliano. The speed, the effort, the high-quality release on his shot, the defensive acumen. All of it screams Cogliano to me and Tampa Bay is just a rich team getting richer with the addition of Bitten.

28. St. Louis Blues – Kale Clague, D, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

Cole: With rumors surrounding Kevin Shattenkirk’s departure from St. Louis, the Blues could afford to add another dynamic puck moving defenseman to their system. Kale Clague solidified himself as just that kind of player with a strong playoffs and Memorial Cup performance with the Brandon Wheat Kings. Clague is the kind of excellent skater with great hockey IQ that the Blues need to keep their play up-tempo.

29. Boston Bruins (From San Jose) – Sam Steele, C, Regina Pats (WHL)

AJ: After our last mock draft, I received flak from a Bruins fan for my sideswipe at Don Sweeney for the Jake DeBrusk selection last year but this is more of an appropriate place for that kind of selection. Like DeBrusk last year, Steele is a talented guy from the WHL deserving of a late first round selection. This time around, Sweeney gets it right as Steele is another talented playmaker to add to the stable for the Bruins moving forward. Don’t email me again, Shawn.

30. Toronto Maple Leafs (from Pittsburgh) – Cam Dineen, D, North Bay Battalion (OHL)

Cole: The Toronto Maple Leafs already grabbed a top centerman in Auston Matthews to start the day, and they have a quality group of forward prospects already primed for the NHL, so now the Maple Leafs begin work on bolstering a mostly forgettable blueline. Dineen’s high end puck moving ability and offensive instincts caused him to shoot up draft boards over the second half of the year and now that momentum lands him in the final spot of the first round.