10 questions that will define the rest of the Nuggets' regular season

Looking back on the Nuggets’ final two weeks before the All-Star break, Denver going 4-1 with victories over the Trail Blazers, Jazz, Suns and Spurs with a loss to the Lakers last Wednesday looks even more impressive.

The Nuggets registered the best regular season win of the Michael Malone era in Utah without three starters and with a bench consisting of two-way player P.J. Dozier and rookie Vlatko Cancar. Then without two starters and Mason Plumlee and Michael Porter Jr. still sidelined posted workmanlike victories over the Suns and Spurs before dropping an overtime thriller to the Lakers. It’s a stretch that was symbolic of most of Denver’s January and February when the Nuggets played without two and at times three starters in 17 of their last 22 games but still managed to compile a 15-7 record since Jan. 1.

The good news for the Nuggets is that they should be at or near full health for Friday’s matchup in Oklahoma City, their first post-All-Star break test. But with a fully intact rotation comes difficult decisions for Michael Malone as the Nuggets set their sights on the playoffs. How will he dole out playing time? Can Denver’s potential big three of the future find minutes on the floor together? Who will play more between Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant?

These 10 questions will define the rest of the Nuggets’ regular season.

1. Can Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. thrive together? 

Wind: The Nuggets’ potential big three of the future has only played 78 minutes together all season. More than half of those minutes, 44 to be exact, came across nine games from Dec. 28 through Jan. 15, a stretch beginning with Michael Malone deciding to up Porter’s minutes and ending on the night when Murray suffered an ankle injury that would sideline him for the next 10 games. While Murray sat Porter shined, averaging 14.4 points on 44.9% shooting from the field and 51.4% from 3 along with 9.8 rebounds per game. But as Murray was about to re-enter the Nuggets’ rotation, Porter went down with an ankle injury of his own that kept him out of the lineup through the All-Star break.

All indications are that Murray, Porter and Jokic are healthy coming out of the break, meaning that for the first time since Porter really established himself as a night-to-night rotation player, all three — the Nuggets’ potential big three of the future —  will be slated for heavy night-to-night minutes.

But how many of those minutes will come alongside one another? They’re bound to get at least a few. Porter is typically the first or second sub off Denver’s bench in the first and third quarters and usually plays a few possessions alongside the starters before the Nuggets go deeper into their second unit. But you’d hope Denver looks to get those three more than just a couple token possessions together over the last two months of the regular season.

If those three can play off of one another, which is something they really haven’t had the chance to do for a prolonged stretch, the Nuggets’ can raise their ceiling this season and also get a peak at their potential future. In their 78 minutes so far, the Nuggets have an elite 117.2 Offensive Rating but a poor 113.9 Defensive Rating with all three on the floor.

2. What is the Nuggets’ playoff rotation going to be, and will any of the newcomers earn regular playing time in the postseason?

Wind: Michael Malone has a little under two months to answer this question. Last year he deployed a nine-man rotation (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Malik Beasley, Will Barton, Torrey Craig, Monte Morris, Mason Plumlee) in both the first and second rounds with Plumlee (14.8 minutes per game) and Morris (11.9 minutes per game) acting as the Nuggets’ “ninth men” in both rounds respectively. As your starters’ minutes climb in the postseason it’s difficult to go more than nine-deep with your bench, so let’s assume Denver’s playoff rotation will include nine players again for the sake of this exercise.

Things can change over the final 27 games of the regular season but here’s how I see a playoff rotation shaping up right now.

Locks

1. Nikola Jokic – last season Jokic played 39.8 minutes per game in the playoffs. Woah.

2. Jamal Murray – Denver’s point guard surely can’t wait to get back to the postseason to avenge his 4 of 18 performance in the Nuggets’ Game 7 loss to the Trail Blazers.

3. Will Barton – A poor individual playoff run last season is surely on Barton’s mind.

4. Paul Millsap – He shot just 31.6% from 3-point range in the playoffs last year, but has converted on 44% of his triples so far this season.

5. Gary Harris – He has struggled on offense, but Harris’ on-ball defense means that he’s a lock for Denver’s playoff rotation

6. Jerami Grant – His versatility and defensive length is going to be really valuable against the array of guards and wings the Nuggets will face in the postseason.

7. Monte Morris – With how well Morris has played over the last month he has the full trust of the Nuggets’ coaching staff right now.

8. Torrey Craig – He logged 23.6 minutes per game in the postseason last year and with how he’s played defensively as of late it’s difficult to see him not getting regular playoff minutes.

Trending in the right direction

9. Michael Porter Jr. – I’m not ready to lock Porter in yet, but it looks like he’s heading that way especially if he picks up where he left off before his ankle injury. The one question is if the rookie can play defense at a high enough level in the playoffs to stay on the floor, and before he was injured he was improving rapidly on that end.

On the outside looking in

10. Mason Plumlee – Last season Plumlee was a part of the playoff rotation, but that was with him as Denver’s third big. He’s firmly behind Grant as things stand and it’s going to be difficult to play four big men in a postseason setting.

11. Keita Bates-Diop – He’s a body Denver can throw at LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard or Paul George, but if the Nuggets are relying on him for heavy playoff minutes they’re likely in trouble.

12. Jordan McRae – Maybe the Nuggets dust off McRae if they start a series especially cold from 3-point range, and with how Denver has shot from 3 this year (35.7%, 16th in the league), you could see it happening.

13. Noah Vonleh – Foul trouble hitting Denver’s bigs is Vonleh’s most likely path to playoff minutes

14. Vlatko Cancar – The Nuggets’ victory cigar.

15. P.J. Dozier – He could be used situationally but Dozier’s lack of a consistent jump shot and Morris’ presence likely keeps him on the outside looking in. Of course, Dozier is currently ineligible for the playoffs while playing under a two-way contract but Denver could convert his two-way into a regular NBA deal prior to the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nuggets do exactly that.

3. Can Gary Harris get on track?

Wind: It’s been a disastrous offensive season for Harris. He’s shooting just 30.1% from 3-point range and only 19-69 (28%) from 5-14 feet, per Cleaning The Glass, which slots him in the 25th percentile among all wings from that distance (last season Harris converted on 38% of those attempts.) Yes, a lot of those misses from that distance are on floaters.

If Harris can get one thing back from the playoffs, his 3-pointer would help Denver out a ton. He’s the clear fifth option in the Nuggets’ starting five and playing off of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Will Barton has gotten a ton of “open” and “wide open” 3s (when the closest defender is at least four feet away, per NBA.com), 171 of them to be exact. He has sunk just 51, good for a 29.8% conversion rate on “open” and “wide open” looks. Harris will have to knock those down in the playoffs.

4. Is this the real Jamal Murray, and how does him playing at this level raise Denver’s playoff ceiling?

Wind: In five games since Murray returned from a 10-game absence due to a sprained ankle, he has averaged 29 points (57.1 FG%, 46.2 3P%) and 6.2 assists. Those are monster numbers. Another number that’s extremely important to Denver’s success? 7.8. That’s how many 3-pointers Murray has attempted per game in his last five games after attempting five 3s per game over his first 40 games. Murray has been shot-ready and willing to fire from distance as of late, something that’s very important to Denver’s offense going forward.

If this is the Murray that the Nuggets get for the rest of the season they should be able to score with any team in the playoffs and it raises their ceiling considerably. The All-Star break came when Murray was playing his best basketball of the season but he needed the time off to rest his ankle.

5. Michael Porter Jr. was playing great before he got injured. Will he immediately get back to that level?

Mares: A lot of this depends on whether or not he will play the same number of minutes. He played more than 20 minutes in nine straight games before the injury. Over that span he averaged 14.5 points per game while making 50% of his three-point attempts and grabbing nearly 10 boards per game. Those last two stats are especially useful to a Denver Nuggets attack that has been light on shooting and a team that is at its best when they can stretch defenses out and punish them on the offensive glass. But those nine games all came when the Nuggets were extremely shorthanded. It’s possible, maybe even likely, that Michael Malone will elect to give Porter a reduced role now that the Nuggets are expecting to be back at full strength.

My guess is that Porter sees a slight reduction in minutes out of the gate and may even struggle to get back into the swing of things after the break but that he will ultimately settle in around 20 minutes per game and play an important role off of the bench for the remainder of the season.

6. When does Paul Millsap return to the starting lineup and how does that impact the bench unit? The second unit was playing well with Millsap at the backup 5.

Mares: I think he is back in the starting spot right away. Jerami Grant did a nice job of filling in while Millsap missed so much time but Millsap has proved to be the better fit alongside Nikola Jokic and the more impactful player overall. The real question is how many minutes Millsap will play and whether or not Malone will cut Mason Plumlee out of the rotation entirely. Grant may end up playing more minutes than Millsap and both forwards might still anchor the second unit as a backup center over Plumlee since Denver’s bench has found success in lineups featuring a stretch four, but Millsap will be the starter and closer in most games from here until the end of the season.

7. Is a Monte Morris-P.J. Dozier second-unit backcourt good enough?

Wind: For the regular season the answer is yes, and that’s what matters right now. Based on the matchup Dozier could play spot minutes in the playoffs because of his length and defensive intangibles but behind Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton and Monte Morris in the backcourt pecking order minutes in the postseason will be hard to come by. Morris is shooting it well enough from 3-point range (40.2%) to offset Dozier, who’s converting on just 26.9% of his triples. Defensively, Dozier will be relied upon to guard the bigger offensive backcourt threat.

8. What needs to happen for the Nuggets to become a better 3-point shooting team down the stretch, or is this who they are?

Wind: They’ll need Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic — their four most frequent 3-point shooters on the season — to get hot from distance. All three are attempting four or more 3s per game but only Barton is shooting above 35% from 3-point range. Nikola Jokic, who’s converting on 32.8% of the 3.8 triples he takes per game would help too.

The other x-factor here is Michael Porter Jr., who shot a blistering 51.4% from 3 in his last eight games before injuring his ankle. If Porter can become one of the Nuggets’ higher-volume 3-point shooters over the next two months (he has attempted 2.3 3-pointers per game this year) he can help raise Denver’s team percentage.

9. How much will Denver miss Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez over the next two months?

Wind: They won’t miss Hernangomez much due to their depth but they could miss Beasley’s shooting. Neither would be slated for too many minutes in the playoffs if any at all but Beasley’s 3-point shot could aid a team that has struggled from deep for most of the year.

Jordan McRae, who the Nuggets brought in from Washington to replace Beasley, doesn’t have the same game-changing ability that his predecessor at the backup two-guard spot did but still poses a legitimate threat from deep. On the season McRae (38.2%) is shooting better from 3 than Beasley (37.1%) although the latter has attempted around one triple more per game this year.

10. Where will the Nuggets finish in the Western Conference standings?

Wind: I predicted the Nuggets to finish second in our season preview and I predicted them to finish second when I made 20 predictions for 2020. So I’m sticking with second in the West, which is where Denver currently sits. The Nuggets are approaching a brutal March slate where Denver will play 10 of 16 on the road including visits to Los Angeles to face the Lakers, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Toronto and Miami with home dates against the Bucks, Clippers and Raptors sprinkled in. It’s a tough stretch but the Nuggets are talented and deep enough to get through it and still be in good position to push for home court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs.