How the Denver Nuggets define success this season

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Every NBA team goes into the season with a different definition of success. 

Take the Golden State Warriors. Regardless of what they do during the regular season, their year won’t be considered successful by their standards unless Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, and Co. lift the Larry O’Brian trophy. 73 regular season wins is an amazing historical accomplishment, but it’s no ring.

The Philadelphia 76ers define success by improving on their win total from last year (10), seeing their young core grow together, finishing the season with more cohesion and better quality of play than when they started – and flipping Jahlil Okafor and/or Nerlens Noel for backcourt assets.

For a middling Eastern Conference team like the Washington Wizards, a playoff berth, a healthy season from Bradley Beal, and either Otto Porter or Kelly Oubre (but preferably both) taking steps forward and establishing themselves as integral pieces of the future would constitute a successful season. But what variables need to fall into place for the Denver Nuggets to deem their season a success?

First, let’s rehash last season. There were few expectations for the Nuggets coming out of training camp. Starting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay was ten games in the Chinese Basketball Association removed from high school, Gary Harris was practically a rookie, and Nikola Jokic was some second round pick expected to don street clothes more often than his Nuggets jersey.

After 82 games, Mudiay was able to improve his play over the course of last season, Harris established himself as a starting caliber two-guard and Nikola Jokic is suddenly a franchise center.

Will Barton was a contender for 6th man of the year, the locker room’s culture was flipped from toxic to a sense of family, and first-year coach Michael Malone connected with most of the roster. The wins didn’t come but the injuries made Denver’s record understandable.

This year, things are different. Instead of ogling at Jokic’s passing, we’ll pick apart missed defensive rotations. Instead of writing think pieces on Mudiay’s poise and how he carried himself like a different player after he missed 14 games with an ankle injury last season, we’ll ponder if he’ll ever develop into a legitimate threat from three.

Expectations will be heightened in Denver, but how will a team whose average age is 24.9 years old determine success?

Mudiay, Jokic, Harris continue to trend up

The Nuggets should be happy with how both Mudiay and Jokic progressed throughout their first year in the league. It was apparent the learning curve for both Mudiay, who only played in ten Chinese Basketball League games between high school and the NBA, and Jokic, who wasn’t expected to contribute much at all during his rookie season, would be steep. Both got better in pretty much every facet of their game over the course of last season.

Same goes for Harris, who now comes fully loaded with an in-between game along with a deadly floater and increased confidence in the pick-and-roll. The 22-year-old seemed to add something new to his game every night and is poised to raise his 3-point percentage over 37 percent this season.

Yet, the work that trio put in during their rookie years is lost if they don’t continue to push forward and trend upward this season.

Mudiay needs to show the 36.4 percent he shot from three after the All-Star break is no fluke. He also needs to prove he’s a more confident player in the pick-and-roll and can make quicker decisions when blitzed. Combine those two improvements with more awareness on defense and increased athleticism and stamina (which I’m confident he’ll improve in) and Mudiay is suddenly, clearly, the Nuggets point guard of the future. Case closed.

The same goes for Jokic and Harris. Jokic should become a league-average rim protector this season but it will be interesting to see how his efficiency suffers as he’s featured in the offense more and more. His RPM numbers won’t repeat with increased minutes but Jokic oozes potential as a high-efficiency player for the rest of his career. For Harris, a more efficient jumper with an expanded offensive game combined with an injury free season from the wing, who’s the starting two-guard in Denver, means he’ll be a staple in the Denver backcourt for years to come.

A consistent jump from Mudiay, Jokic and Harris means the Nuggets are on their way to a successful season.

Nuggets play important games in March and April

Last season, Denver shut down Danilo Gallinari and Jameer Nelson in March with the playoffs out of reach and an important draft pick that netted them No. 7 overall pick Jamal Murray in play. A way the Nuggets can measure success this season is if they’re playing for something down the stretch.

I’m not projecting the Nuggets to make the playoffs this season. They’ll be close but the youth combined with a deep Western Conference and the injury history scares me. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be competing for the eighth seed come March.

A lot of this depends on health, which is a bit of a cop out, but true with this team. Stay generally healthy through the All-Star break and the Nuggets have the talent and depth to be in contention for a playoff spot entering the final months of the season.

However, Denver could begin the season behind the eight-ball. Their opening schedule includes six of their first seven games on the road, five of which come against 2016 playoff teams with the other two against a much improved Timberwolves squad and a dangerous opening night game in New Orleans. If the Nugget can survive that opening stretch their schedule eventually evens out. Fast forward to January and Denver can be in position for a second-half run towards the eight seed.

If the Nuggets find themselves in a situation where they’re playing crucial games late in the season with their current roster, the season can be deemed a success. Important games down the stretch where there’s something to play for will carry over to next season and potential playoff experience as the eighth seed provides invaluable lessons.

Wilson Chandler, Jusuf Nurkic prove they can stay healthy

Two players who figured to be vital pieces for the Nuggets last year, Chandler, and Nurkic, both had lost seasons. Chandler missed the entire season after undergoing hip surgery and Nurkic only played in 32 games after knee surgery sidelined him until the second half of 2016.

This year is no different. For the Nuggets to be contending for the eight seed they need enormous contributions from both Chandler and Nurkic. The duo lead Denver’s bench mob which has a chance to be a top-5 unit in the league. Chandler should play with the starters at times in a small ball four role in what I’m predicting will be the Nuggets most efficient lineup next season; Mudiay, Harris, Gallinari, Chandler, and Jokic, and will provide unrivaled versatility.

Nurkic is the yin to Jokic’s yang at the center position. While Jokic is a playmaking five who the Nuggets will run the offense through more this season, Nurkic sets the tone when he plays with his defense. The 22-year-old needs to get his edge back.

Jamal Murray solidifies his spot in the rotation

What last season did provide, perhaps more than anything, is a look into the future of the franchise. Mudiay, Harris, and Jokic have the makings of a core group of players the Nuggets can build with and around. This year, their No. 7 overall pick is looking to add himself to that group.

Murray was the seventh pick but the No. 3 guy on Tim Connelly’s draft board. The organization is high on him and believes the combo guard has a bright future and frankly there’s little reason to think otherwise.

The 19-year-old exudes potential especially on the offensive end. Murray arguably has the highest ceiling on the roster right now. Yes, higher than Mudiay, higher than Jokic, and looks like he’ll be able to score in the league from day one. But just how many minutes will the rookie get at least at the beginning of the season?

Murray sits behind Harris and Barton at the two and Jameer Nelson at the one. He’ll likely get spot minutes here and there to start the season with the chance to impress, and I have a feeling he will. Over the course of the year, Murray should see his minutes gradually rise and eventually be an integral part of the rotation late this season.

If Denver’s young nucleus continues to trend up and the Nuggets are playing important games during March and April, the 2016-17 season can be deemed a successful one. However, if all these wishes are granted, meaning the Nuggets stay relatively healthy, Chandler and Nurkic are able to get back to their pre-injury selves, and Jamal Murray carves out a niche for among Denver’s rotation, the 2016-17 season will set the Nuggets up as one of the league’s most exciting teams moving forward.