How Coach Prime and Colorado can upset UCF

Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes have a chance to put the country on notice this weekend. Going into Orlando as 14-point underdogs, a win this weekend over UCF would move the Buffs to 4-1 and firmly in the conversation for the Big 12 title halfway through the season. Coach Prime, Warren Sapp, Jimmy Horn Jr. and many more are eager to make the long-awaited trip back to their home state of Florida, but as Coach Prime said in his press conference on Tuesday, “We’re on the job.”

Here are three keys for another statement win for Coach Prime and the Buffs this weekend in Orlando.

Reinforcements

The Buffs will get two boosts back to their starting lineup this weekend with running back Dallan Hayden and defensive lineman Chidozie Nwankwo returning from injury. Although Coach Prime didn’t rule Shilo Sanders out, it would be an upset to see Colorado’s enforcer this weekend with CU’s first bye week around the corner.

Dallan Hayden emerged as an offensive weapon for Colorado before he went down with an ankle injury in the Buffs’ brutal loss to Nebraska. Since then, CU has reshuffled its offensive line and has shown a much greater commitment to the run game from offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. True freshman Micah Welch has earned future opportunities after filling in for Hayden the last two weeks, but the former Ohio State running back could resume lead-back duties as soon as this weekend. Hayden went through a full pregame workout and dressed to play last weekend against Baylor but was ultimately held out of action.

Coach Prime on facing UCF and an update on Chidozie Nwankwo’s status.

“I feel good about our scheme, I feel good about what I saw at practice today. I think we get Chidozie back this week as well.”

— Jake Schwanitz (@JakeDNVR) September 24, 2024

Chidozie Nwankwo was a difference-maker for the Buffs in the first two weeks of the season and is returning to the starting lineup just in time. Nwankwo showcased his strength, speed and ability to generate leverage to blow up plays at the line of scrimmage before injuring his shoulder against Nebraska. The Buffs have already shown substantial year-over-year improvement at stopping the run but with Nwankwo back in the fold, CU’s defense has a chance to make a statement this weekend.

Containing UCF’s run game

The Golden Knights currently have the best running game in the country. Strong running games with dynamic running backs and quarterbacks have been the backbone of Gus Malzahn’s offense since 2006. With KJ Jefferson leading the way, this year’s UCF team could be one of the most dynamic offenses Malzahn has coached since Cam Newton and the 2011 Auburn Tigers. At 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, Jefferson is a battering ram in the run game and has a big arm to do damage downfield.

The Buffs will have their hands full containing Jefferson but it’s the running back duo of RJ Harvey and Peny Boone that CU must stop to win on Saturday. Harvey is currently the eighth-leading rusher in the country with 448 yards on 58 attempts (7.8 yards per carry) for eight touchdowns. Boone has only carried the football 24 times this season but is averaging 6.6 yards per carry.

At Tuesday’s press conferences, Colorado defensive lineman Shane Cokes spoke about the Buffs’ battle against the Golden Knights running game this Saturday.

“Going against KJ Jefferson this week, we know he likes to run,” said Cokes. “They ran on us the past weeks through quarterback runs. They’re probably going to work on it this week and run it against us. We know it’s coming, they know they want to do it. So the point is to stop it.”

The key for Colorado’s defense this week is to maintain gap discipline and finishing tackles to limit UCF’s effectiveness on the ground. Malzahn will throw many different looks at the Buffs including multiple variations of counter, power, options and RPOs. If the Buffs can limit the Golden Knights on the ground and make KJ Jefferson one-dimensional, their chances of winning skyrocket.

Protecting Shedeur

Keeping Shedeur Sanders upright is the key to Colorado’s success this season. While the talent and performance along the Buffs’ offensive line has improved, CU has still allowed 15 sacks through four games. Shedeur is on track to take 45 sacks this season which is only a marginal improvement from 52 sacks last year. However, UCF’s defense has only sacked opposing quarterbacks once this season. Colorado’s offensive line has a chance to address the narrative this weekend.

Although Shedeur was able to mount a miraculous comeback over Baylor last weekend, Colorado’s star quarterback was sacked five times in the fourth quarter. Phil Loadholt’s reshuffling of the offensive line continued throughout last week’s game as Kahlil Benson was kicked out to right tackle and Justin Mayers was inserted at right guard. From left to right, Colorado’s starting offensive line against UCF is expected to be Jordan Seaton, Tyler Brown, Hank Zilinskas, Justin Mayers and Kahlil Benson.

Dallan Hayden’s return will undoubtedly help Colorado’s run game but he should also prove to be a factor in pass protection and running routes out of the backfield. Hayden provided multiple key blocks in the Buffs’ season-opening win over North Dakota State and has looked explosive in his limited pass-catching opportunities this season.

With games against Kansas State, Utah and Oklahoma State on the horizon, the Buffs have to figure out their offensive line issues to compete with the Big 12’s very best and it has to start this weekend vs. UCF.