ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Not all hope is lost, Broncos Country.
Despite an unexpected, and frankly inexcusable, loss to the lowly 3-10 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, the Broncos are not out of the playoff mix.
In fact, thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders — Denver’s biggest rivals — Sunday’s loss wasn’t as damaging to the Broncos’ playoff hopes as it could have been.
But in the final three weeks of the NFL season, Denver’s not only going to need to take care of their own business, they are going to need some help along the way.
Here’s every scenario the Broncos need to happen in order for them to get back in this thing.
WHAT REMAINS
No. 4 Seed Steelers (7-5-1)
VS 9-4 Patriots
AT 11-2 Saints
VS 5-8 Bengals
No. 6 Seed Ravens (7-6)
VS 5-8 Buccaneers
AT 10-3 Chargers
VS 5-7-1 Browns
No. 7 Seed Colts (7-6)
VS 8-5 Cowboys
VS 5-8 Giants
AT 7-6 Titans
No. 8 Dolphins (7-6)
AT 6-6-1 Vikings
VS 4-9 Jaguars
AT 4-9 Bills
No. 9 Titans (7-6)
AT 5-8 Giants
VS 6-7 Redskins
VS 7-6 Colts
No. 10 Broncos (6-7)
VS 5-7-1 Browns
AT 3-10 Raiders
VS 10-3 Chargers
BRONCOS FINISH 9-7
If the Broncos bounce-back from their loss on Sunday and finish the season with another three-game win streak, they’ll still need help.
Denver will need one of the following to happen:
- The Steelers lose two games
- The Ravens lose two games
Additionally, all of the following must happen:
- The Colts lose one game
- The Dolphins lose one game
- The Titans lose one game
Additionally:
- If the Dolphins only lose one game, it must be to either the Jaguars or the Bills
*The Broncos would likely own the tiebreaker over the Dolphins based on the fourth tiebreaker, “strength of victory.”
BRONCOS FINISH 8-8
If the Broncos drop one of their final three games, they’ll need to pray for a miracle, while also needing substantial help.
Denver will need one of the following to happen:
- The Steelers to lose out
- The Ravens to lose out
Additionally, all of the following must happen:
- The Colts lose two games
- The Dolphins lose two games
- The Titans lose two games
Additionally:
- The Dolphins must lose to the Jaguars and Bills
- If the Dolphins finish 8-8, the Broncos must beat the Raiders
- The Browns cannot win out
*The Broncos would likely own the tiebreaker over the Colts based on the fourth tiebreaker, “strength of victory.” Denver can avoid this tiebreaker by beating the Raiders.
*It’s impossible to tell who would own the fourth tiebreaker, strength of victory, between the Titans and Broncos if both teams finished 8-8 because of how close it currently is. In order to get to the fourth tiebreaker, the Broncos would have to beat the Chargers in Week 17. If Tennessee loses to the Colts in Week 17, the Broncos will win the tiebreaker based on the second tiebreaker, best win-loss-tie record within the AFC.
BRONCOS FINISH 7-9 OR 6-10
Changes are headed to the Mile High City.
The only playoff talk will be about the 2019 season.
HERE’S WHAT IT ALL MEANS
With Sunday’s loss and the Chargers win over the Bengals, the Broncos cannot be the fifth seed in the playoffs. Since the division is out of sight, too, the only spot Denver is eyeing is the sixth and final playoff spot.
While Denver currently is the 10th seed, they don’t need much to fall their way to own the tiebreaker with all of the teams ahead of them sitting at 7-6, except for the Ravens who will own the tiebreaker over them no matter what thanks to their Week 3 victory over the Broncos.
Not only did the Ravens’ and Steelers’ losses on Sunday help mitigate Denver’s loss, the Broncos’ loss was actually the best loss the Broncos could have had down the stretch since it was to an NFC opponent.
Even more promising news for the Broncos is there is a good chance the Chargers will be playing for nothing in Week 17, meaning Denver could be facing Los Angeles’ backups, led by quarterback Geno Smith.
MOST IMPORTANT NON-BRONCOS GAME
Colts-Titans, Week 17
It could all come down to this game for the Broncos.
If Denver takes care of business and wins out, they’ll need each of these teams to lose at least one of their three remaining games.
If at least one of these two teams enters this game with a loss in the next two weeks, Denver will have their eyes glued to the 11:00 AM MST game desperately rooting for the team with the better record to lose.
If they both enter this week undefeated, then, well, it was a fun season, Denver.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
After having a 19 percent chance to make the playoffs before Sunday’s embarrassing loss, the Broncos odds fell all the way down to four percent entering Week 15.
But there’s still a chance.
Not much of one, but there is a shot the Broncos could still make it.
With the way the schedule shakes out for the other teams fighting for a playoff spot, it’s not inconceivable for the stars to align and for Denver to make a miraculous run into the postseason.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR DENVER TO MAKE IT
It starts with Denver taking care of business.
That shouldn’t be that difficult of a task as they play back-to-back teams with losing records and finish the season against a Chargers team that likely won’t be playing for anything.
Saying that, however, they should have beat the 49ers on Sunday, too.
But, if they go on another three-game win streak, the rest could very easily fall into place.
The most likely scenario for Denver to make the postseason at 9-7 is actually taking the Steelers spot, meaning the Ravens would jump them for the AFC North crown and Denver would snag the second wild-card spot from Pittsburgh.
Denver would need Pittsburgh to lose two of their next three games, but since they face the 9-4 Patriots and 11-2 Saints in back-to-back weeks, it’s very possible, and likely, the Steelers will fulfill Denver’s wishes, especially after they lost to the Raiders on Sunday.
From there, the Colts, Titans and Dolphins all have at least one loseable game remaining on their schedule. The biggest potential roadblock in this path — outside of Denver not dropping a game — is Denver needing the Dolphins to lose to either the Bills or Jaguars.
That four percent chance doesn’t look as damning now.
